The paperboard industry showed distinct regional contrasts in August 2025, with Western Europe experiencing a sharp demand decline while other markets maintained stability or showed growth, according to EMGE’s latest market analysis.

Cartonboard markets show regional splits

Western Europe recorded strongly negative demand in August 2025, marking a significant departure from performance in other regions. The month included one fewer working day compared to August 2024, which partly contributed to the weakness. However, the decline also appears to reflect buyers reducing purchase volumes following price decreases that began in July.

The weakening demand in Western Europe pulled global figures below zero, though the global three-month moving average operating ratio increased slightly due to improved utilization rates in other regions.

Regional developments varied considerably. The USA maintained relative stability, with demand, production, and capacity all remaining within one percentage point of flat. Cartonboard prices in the North American market have held steady for a year.

Western Europe entered Q3 2025 with weakening production and demand, followed by summer price declines. Prices continued falling through October, suggesting the market downturn extended into early Q4 2025.

Asia’s “Big Asia” region (China, Japan, and South Korea) showed gradual improvement, with demand and production breaking into growth territory in recent months. Rising market pulp prices, combined with these positive factors, helped lift cartonboard prices from recent lows. However, strong capacity growth in Asia means competition is expected to remain intense.

Regional three-month moving average cartonboard operating ratios in August 2025 were 78% in Western Europe, 87% in North America, 72% in China/Japan/Korea, and 73% in the rest of the world.

New capacity reshapes containerboard dynamics

Western Europe became the weakest market for containerboard demand in August 2025, following North America’s struggles the previous month. Despite regional weakness, growth in developing markets kept global demand in modest positive territory. Year-to-date demand in both Western Europe and North America has remained approximately flat.

The “Big Asia” region showed slightly better demand performance, but faces significant oversupply challenges. China alone brought 3 million tonnes per annum of new capacity online during the first three quarters of 2025. This capacity largely displaced imports rather than improving the supply-demand balance.

In contrast, US mills closed over 3 million tonnes per annum of containerboard capacity during 2025, helping maintain healthier operating rates compared to other regions.

Western Europe saw almost 1.5 million tonnes per annum of new capacity ramp up amid flat demand. This imbalance has led to generally easing prices since mid-year and declining operating rates.

Regional three-month moving average containerboard operating ratios in August 2025 stood at 82% in Western Europe, 89% in North America, 74% in China/Japan/Korea, and 78% in the rest of the world.

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