Rapeseed oil prices in Europe have strengthened this week as Ukrainian export disruptions continue to limit supply flows during the crucial harvest period.

MATIF rapeseed futures increased by EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt, while spot prices for crude rapeseed oil (FOB Dutch Mill) rose to EUR 1110/mt from EUR 1085/mt compared to the same time last week.

The price strength comes despite pressure on other vegetable oil markets, with palm oil and soybean oil both declining due to weaker energy prices and ongoing US-China trade uncertainties.

Ukrainian shipments fall dramatically

Ukraine’s rapeseed export mechanism, introduced in early September, has created significant bottlenecks that have reduced shipments to a fraction of normal levels.

Vessel lineup data shows Ukrainian rapeseed shipments in September at only around 150,000 mt, compared to August’s 519,000 mt. This represents a sharp decline from the 800,000 mt shipped in August last year.

The delays come at a critical time when Ukraine typically exports large rapeseed volumes during the August-October period. Market participants attribute the disruptions to both a poor harvest and procedural issues with the new export system.

Canadian supply surge looms

While Ukrainian supply tightens, bearish news is emerging from Canada. Statistics Canada raised its crop estimate to 20 million mt versus the previously expected 19.9 million mt, with some market participants suggesting the actual harvest could reach 21 million mt.

The ongoing China-Canada trade dispute means that during peak shipment season in October, more Canadian canola volumes could flow to the EU market. However, market experts warn about limits on these flows, as not all Canadian canola meets biodiesel certification requirements for European buyers.

Despite these constraints, industry experts agree that Canadian canola imports to the EU will be higher this year compared to previous seasons.

Global production picture improves

The broader global outlook shows increased production across multiple regions. Better harvests are expected in the EU (+3 million mt), Australia (+0.5 million mt), and globally (+6 million mt) compared to previous forecasts.

This improved production outlook suggests that while current supply disruptions from Ukraine are supporting prices in the near term, the medium-term picture may see pressure as alternative supplies become available.

For FMCG procurement managers, the current price strength in rapeseed oil reflects the immediate supply tightness, but the improving global production picture suggests opportunities for more favorable pricing as the season progresses and Canadian supplies increase to European markets.

This article is part of a full market analysis. For the full market analysis, got to: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2299