Rapeseed oil prices experienced notable gains this week, with crude rapeseed oil (FDM) October contracts increasing by EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt. Monthly averages reached EUR 1,069/mt, marking the highest levels since June.

Ukrainian export disruptions create supply concerns

The primary driver behind the price increase stems from ongoing issues with Ukrainian rapeseed shipments. UkrAgroConsult reports no progress in clarifying the new export mechanism introduced on September 4, creating significant uncertainty in the market.

Exports of rapeseed from Ukraine have fallen to record lows since the beginning of the season, attributed to both a poor domestic crop and continued uncertainties around export mechanisms. Current shipments face substantial delays, with some market participants expressing concerns about potential contract cancellations.

Ukrainian suppliers find themselves with limited options, often selling to domestic crushers at discounted prices until export mechanisms receive clarification from authorities.

Strong rival oils provide additional support

Rapeseed oil prices received further support from strength in competing vegetable oils, particularly soy oil, which experienced significant gains during the week. This inter-commodity strength helped maintain upward pressure on rapeseed oil values.

The European Union’s low crushing activity in July, as reported by Fedoil, has also contributed to tighter supply conditions in the region.

MATIF rapeseed futures gain momentum

MATIF rapeseed prices increased by EUR 10/mt, rising to EUR 470/mt compared to the previous week. This underlying strength in the physical commodity provided fundamental support to oil prices across the complex.

Canadian exports remain limited

Meanwhile, Canada has not yet begun active shipping, with October typically representing the peak export month for Canadian canola. This seasonal pattern suggests that additional supply from North America remains weeks away from reaching European markets.

However, diplomatic developments may influence future trade flows. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office reported that a Canadian delegation held constructive talks with Chinese officials regarding tariffs and duties during a visit this week.

Market outlook shows mixed signals

Looking ahead, several factors will influence rapeseed oil price direction. As trade issues between China and Canada remain unresolved, Canada may redirect more canola to European markets in Q4, with October and November representing peak export months.

Last year, the majority of Canadian October exports were shipped to China. Any redirection to European destinations could create downside pressure for the rapeseed complex.

However, continued delays in Ukrainian arrivals should provide temporary price support until potentially larger volumes arrive from Canada later in the season.

From November through March, prices may find additional support from the palm oil rainy season, which typically strengthens tropical oil prices and provides spillover support to temperate oils like rapeseed oil.

The stocks-to-use ratio for this season will be lower than in the previous season, which may help prices maintain firmer levels compared to last year.


This newsarticle is part of a full vegetable oils market analysis. Read the full analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2277