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Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

10-03-2026

Gehrman Kosenkov

Vesper has modelled three commodity price scenarios based on the Brent price. The duration of the Middle East conflict and impact on oil infrastructure is important for Brent. Best case – Brent at $80/barrel Conflict ending in 1–2 weeks, with limited infrastructure damage. Vegetable oil, grain, and sugar prices return close to pre-conflict levels. Freight […]

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How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Paperboard markets diverge as Western Europe softens and North America holds firm

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

European cheese prices keep climbing as buyers chase limited availability

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

How escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil shipping

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

Thailand’s sugar output set to fall as disease and labour shortages reshape next season

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Tree nut markets in early 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans

European poultry market remains under pressure after brief February recovery

European sugar producers feel the squeeze as market prices stay low

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

WPC80 market tightens further as Q2 volumes near sold out across Europe and the US

Coffee prices ease as market weighs tariff ruling against supply dynamics

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Blank sailings climb to 18% as carriers manage post-CNY capacity

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