News — Vesper

Cheese spot markets jumped while the supply picture stayed heavy

Mozzarella and Gouda tightened in Europe while US blocks rose about 18% in under a week on two recalls, with the cheese fundamentals unchanged underneath.

Coffee falls back below $3 after Brazil's farmers sell

A weaker real lifted the value of a Brazilian grower's coffee by up to 13%, selling followed, and futures gave back roughly 6% to close under $3 a pound.

Feedyard losses near $500 a head, and placements fell 12%

September placements came in below every analyst estimate at a 12% drop, with feedyards absorbing losses near $500 a head and slow-rolling cattle in.

Lula's win knocked Brazil's currency, and sugar went with it

The real posted its biggest drawdown since 1999 after Lula's re-election, pulling raw sugar nearly 5% lower in a single session with fund length already high.

Record EU broiler supply meets the worst Newcastle year in two decades

EU broiler prices eased for a second week on record production, while Newcastle Disease outbreaks hit a 20-year high and Polish prices fell to a 2021 low.

US broiler weights are flattening after decades of gains

Six-week average liveweight was 1.7% below a year ago, and LEAP sees bird weights turning from a growth engine into a neutral one, tightening 2027 supply.

US butter stocks drew down at half last year's pace

Butter left US warehouses at half last autumn's rate even though it was cheaper, leaving stocks 16.5% above a year ago heading into the holiday drawdown.

Chocolate demand splits: Lindt cuts guidance, Nestlé grows volume

Lindt cut its full-year sales guidance and lost its chief executive while Nestlé grew chocolate volumes 5.4%, leaving cocoa demand without one direction.

Middle East oil is flowing again at five times the freight cost

Middle East oil exports are back at pre-war volumes, but a barrel shipped from the Gulf to Asia now costs more than five times what it did before the conflict.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

US frozen egg stocks hit an 11-month low and prices stay put

Frozen egg stocks ended September 21% below the five-year average, yet US egg prices have not responded and processors are in no hurry to restock.

Euronext opens butter and SMP futures on the Vesper index

Euronext began trading butter and SMP futures this week, both settling on the Vesper Price Index, as EU, US and New Zealand milk all came in on expectations.

Macadamia is among the cheapest tree nuts on the market

Macadamia is trading below cashew, almond, hazelnut, pistachio and pecan kernels, with world production still growing and no supply concern in sight.

The US table egg flock shrank in September, which rarely happens

Layer inventories usually build through September. This year they slipped, and the last two times that happened there were clear reasons behind it.

Asian cartonboard output surges while Western Europe slips again

Cartonboard demand grew globally in July, but the regional picture split three ways, and falling Asian prices suggest the new volume has not found buyers yet.

China's tissue growth is distorting the global demand picture

Western Europe and North America both fell for a third straight month in July while China grew again, and EMGE suspects that volume is filling inventories.

Coffee rallies through its range as graded stocks stay away

No significant grades reached the exchange last week, which the market read as bullish, and momentum carried arabica through the $3 a pound barrier on Friday.

Europe's cocoa grindings turn positive for the first time since 2024

Q3 grindings showed Europe growing again after two years of decline and Asia processing record volumes, but cocoa futures barely reacted to either number.

Nobody wants to be the buyer who stops WPC80 falling

European WPC80 has fallen again, bids and offers are far apart, and almost nothing is trading. Every week of waiting has paid off for buyers so far.

Protein wants more skim while butter has too much fat

Milk is plentiful in every major exporting region, but the fat half and the protein half of that milk are pulling in opposite directions as the year winds down.

Ribs are holding the US beef cutout up on their own

Every primal except the rib is set to decline this week, and LEAP reads the split as a picture of what is happening to US consumers at different income levels.

Sunflower oil climbs again while soybean oil slides into harvest

A physical sunflower oil shortage keeps pulling prices higher while the US harvest presses on soybean oil, leaving the complex without one direction.

US broiler growth is slowing toward the first down year since 2012

September hatchings barely grew, breeder productivity fell for a third straight month, and LEAP now expects US broiler production to ease back in 2027.

Carriers go back through Suez and arrival dates stop lining up

Most big carriers are routing through the Suez Canal again, but not all at once, so some ships arrive early, others late, and terminal congestion follows.

Germany's beet crop comes in a quarter smaller than last season

WVZ now puts German sugar output about 25% below last season, and France is worse, with growers facing a compensation system that mostly will not pay.

A bumper basmati crop crashed the market, then old stock ran out

India's basmati market fell hard on a new crop arriving faster than expected, then recovered most of it when traders found the old stock had all but vanished.

Coffee gives back its rally while Brazil's election moves the real

Coffee futures touched $3.08 a pound before closing the week at $2.906, while a surprise first-round result in Brazil's election sent the real sharply higher.

European cheese holds steady while US Cheddar blocks jump

Europe's cheese slide has paused, with Gouda and Mozzarella stable and Cheddar firm, while CME Cheddar blocks rallied from $1.27 to $1.53 a pound in two weeks.

Europe's egg market waits for its autumn lift, with organic still short

European egg prices have barely moved in two weeks and the usual October lift is late, while organic, free-range and extra-large eggs stay hard to find.

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

France cut its 2026 corn forecast to the lowest level in ministry records going back to 1980, and Euronext corn jumped to new highs on the back of it.

Funds add to their sugar bets while Brazil's crush slows in the rain

Raw sugar futures are back above 21 US cents a pound for the first time since February 2025, while rain cut Brazil's early September cane crush by a third.

German HVO100 demand is on course to double this year

HVO100 has traded below B7 diesel across Germany since mid-August for the first time, and 2026 consumption is now put at more than double last year's.

Indian cumin is now cheaper than Iran, Syria and Turkey

Cumin from the origins that historically undercut India now costs buyers more than Indian cumin, and that reversal is pulling demand into Gujarat.

LEAP sees the US choice beef cutout down 5% to 10% in 2027

Wholesale beef demand has softened, retail beef hit an eight-month low in September, and LEAP Market Analytics expects lower cattle prices through year-end.

LEAP targets a 15% to 20% rise in US breast meat prices for 2027

US broiler supply growth is slowing and frozen breast meat stocks are at a two-year low, while LEAP sees room for breast meat prices to rise in 2027.

Newcastle disease hits a 20-year high while EU chicken prices ease

EU broiler prices fell for a third week to €187/100kg on record supply, while Newcastle disease outbreaks reached 157 this year, the most in two decades.

US egg exports are on track for their best year since 2021

US table egg exports are running 36% ahead of 2025, with Mexico up 41%, but shell egg production grew 8% in the third quarter, faster than exports can absorb.

Cocoa stuck between El Niño risk and a squeezed consumer

London cocoa futures moved just 0.1% on the week. El Niño threatens West African supply, while Lindt cut its 2026 sales outlook for a second time.

India turns to palm oil while sunflower cargoes run short

BMD palm oil rebounded from last week's lows as Indian buyers returned. India's sunflower oil arrivals could fall to 160,000 tonnes in October.

India's Diwali buying lifts almond exports while sales slow

US almond exports rose 31% in August, led by India at 170%. August sales fell 25% and uncommitted 2026 crop inventory more than tripled on last year.

Coffee breaks above its range while exchange gradings slow

Coffee futures rose 20 cents in two weeks to 292.55 US cents a pound, while the market asks whether enough coffee will be certified for December.

Lindt plans cheaper Christmas chocolate before Q3 grindings

Lindt plans lower prices for Christmas chocolate and again from January, while cocoa futures rose 5.7% in London ahead of Q3 grindings data next week.

The Q4 window closes on heavy butter and scarce SMP

Milk output is holding up better than feared. Butter sellers are short on time for Q4, while SMP buyers who waited face a market with little product left.

US sweet whey reaches a 2026 high while whey proteins fall

Export demand has lifted US sweet whey powder to its highest level of 2026, while WPC80 keeps falling and hard-to-find specs still cost buyers more.

China buys less dairy but more cheese and butter

China's dairy imports fell 3.7% in milk equivalent this year while its cheese and butter buying rose about 18%. See where US suppliers gained ground in Asia.

Cocoa eases while supply risk builds at origin

Cocoa butter is 20% cheaper than a year ago, but supply risk at origin is building. See our cocoa price outlook in the free Chocolate Q4 report.

Europe's short sugar crop puts imports to the test

EU sugar output is set to fall close to 20% and only a fraction of eligible imports would arrive. See where white sugar prices head in our free Q4 outlook.

EU sugar prices stay sticky while France's campaign runs short

France's beet campaign is now estimated at 97 days against a 122-day average, yet EU sugar values have barely reacted. Here are the reasons on the table.

European butter loses ground while the market chases protein

EU butter is 28% cheaper than a year ago while SMP is up 56%. See where European butter prices head in our free EU Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

European egg prices firm up as the baking season approaches

European egg prices are firming as demand returns and supply lags. See where organic, free range and caged eggs head into 2027 in our free Q4 outlook.

European pig prices break lower after a strong year

German and Dutch pig prices fell about 10% in a month on oversupply. See where European pork prices head in our free Meat & Poultry Q4 outlook.

European whey protein splits from milk protein

WPC 80 fell 18.5% in a month while MPC 85 kept climbing. See where European whey protein prices settle in our free Sports Nutrition Q4 outlook.

Palm oil enters Q4 caught between record stocks and El Niño

Record Malaysian stocks weigh on palm oil now, while El Niño and Indonesia's B50 point higher. See our palm oil outlook in the free Oils & Fats Q4 report.

Rotterdam's ECT terminals now take trucks by time slot only

Trucks now need a booked slot at ECT Delta and Euromax in Rotterdam, while Asia to Europe spot rates fell for a second week during China's Golden Week.

Sunflower oil rebounds while Black Sea shipping stays stuck

Crude sunflower oil rebounded about 3% this week, while Ukraine's monthly exports halved in August and September. Palm oil kept sliding on the week.

US cheese blocks slide while stocks build

CME cheese blocks are 23.7% below a year ago and US stocks are building. See where US cheese prices head next in our free US Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

US WPC 80 drops 15% while milk protein keeps climbing

US WPC 80 fell 15% in a month as more American supply reached the market. See where whey and milk protein prices head in our free Q4 outlook.

Wheat holds a Black Sea premium into the fourth quarter

Euronext wheat is 31.8% above a year ago with the Black Sea still not shipping normally. See our wheat outlook to Q3 2027 in the free Grains Q4 report.

A storm halves Guntur chili arrivals, and prices hold

A deep depression halved red chili arrivals at Guntur in late September, but weak export volumes kept prices in range. Small and big cardamom split.

Basmati snaps back as old stock runs out

Indian basmati fell about 20% on new 1509 arrivals in early September, then rebounded as packers and stockists competed for new crop with old stock nearly gone.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Brazil's rains trim this season's sugar and may pad the next

Heavy rain has cut Brazil's sugar output and could leave a record volume of cane in the fields for 2027/28, while drought in India weakens its export outlook.

Cheese prices soften as production outruns demand

US Cheddar and Mozzarella are leading cheese prices lower as production growth outpaces demand, with US cheese stocks up 2.3% on the year in August.

Poland stays the swing factor as EU chicken heads into autumn

EU chicken output is growing but has turned more volatile, with Polish production down about 20% in July, while bird flu and Newcastle disease stay contained.

US eggs turn higher while Europe's rally pauses

US caged white egg prices rose 30.6% in two weeks on stronger demand, while European gains narrowed as record imports cap the caged end of the market.

Ghana's cocoa farmgate price opens well above Ivory Coast's

Ghana raised its cocoa farmgate price 2.4%, leaving it well above Ivory Coast's despite a pledge to align. Smuggling and financing now shape the new season.

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

BMD palm oil fell 4.7% on a looser Malaysian balance while soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil also slipped. See where Vesper expects prices to turn.

Peanut supply thins abroad while US stocks stay heavy

Argentina, Brazil and India point to smaller peanut crops while the US leans on record carryover, and Alimenta expects international prices to rise.

Ivory Coast farmers hold back beans over an unchanged farmgate price

ICE Europe cocoa fell 7% to close below 4,000 GBP/t while Ivory Coast farmers keep protesting a main crop farmgate price held at March's mid-crop level.

MPC 85 is setting the floor under a falling WPC80 market

WPC80 prices are falling quickly in Europe and the US as buyers wait, but firm MPC 85 is closing the gap from the other side and limiting how far whey can drop.

Whole milk powder trades below skimmed in New Zealand

New Zealand WMP has slipped below SMP and US NFDM sits above butter, as weak milkfat and firm protein compress the usual spreads across all three dairy regions.

Coffee speculators turn net short for the second time

Investors moved net short on coffee futures as the December contract fell 7.5 cents to 276.4 cents a pound, with Brazil still holding coffee left to sell.

EU poultry prices pull back as bird migration starts

European poultry output is running 4.4% ahead of last year and prices have come off their 2026 highs, just as the autumn bird migration season begins.

Europe's sugar import gap is wider than the quotas can fill

Only about 766,000 tonnes of the EU's 2.4 million tonnes of eligible sugar import volume is likely to arrive at current prices, leaving a real shortfall.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

Gasoil's 26% climb lifts biodiesel as Hormuz talks stall

Low sulfur gasoil rose 26% to $1,568 a tonne after Strait of Hormuz talks were postponed, pulling FAME and HVO up while used cooking oil eased.

Olive oil hits a three-year low on a crop not yet picked

Spanish extra virgin olive oil has fallen to a three-year low on expectations of a 25% larger crop from Spain, Turkey and Tunisia that starts in October.

Summer heat leaves Europe short of free range eggs

Organic and free range eggs are scarce on European spot markets after the June and July heat waves, while the US wholesale market has found a floor.

Two routes into Rotterdam narrow at the same time

A cracked bridge has halved truck capacity to the Maasvlakte for up to eight weeks, while the Rhine at Kaub fell to 16 centimeters on 21 September.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand gives back May's gain

Apparent cartonboard demand in Western Europe fell 8% in June after an above-trend May, while North America grew 3% and Asian demand rose 14% again.

Cheese is back to normal everywhere except across the Atlantic

European cheese offers have thinned as buyers step back, while new US capacity keeps filling with Mozzarella that has to be exported to clear.

October white sugar delivery lands at a third of last year's

Under 500,000 tonnes were delivered against October London white sugar, against over 1.5 million a year ago, while funds built their largest long since 2023.

Record Brazilian shipments leave coffee near flat on the week

Brazil shipped a seasonal record of Arabica and Robusta in August, yet December coffee fell only 0.8 cents on the week. Outside markets explain the gap.

Europe enters winter with gas storage 16 points below normal

European gas storage sits at 68% against an 84% seasonal average, TTF is at three-year highs and the ECB has hiked again. What that means into winter.

Festival buying lifts cumin while coriander futures slide

Cumin ground higher through early September on festival buying while coriander futures dropped close to 5% with spot flat. Turmeric ended the fortnight nowhere.

Ghana's state exporter guides cocoa output down by up to 38%

Ghana's state exporter now guides 2026/27 output to 470,000-620,000 tonnes against 760,000 a year earlier, while forecasters still split on deficit or surplus.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Red chilli breaks a month of stasis with a 16% jump

Delhi 334 red chilli moved 16% in a week after a month near $253/quintal, with Andhra's monsoon 40% below normal. Nepal's bumper crop is resetting big cardamom.

Fewer pounds, more dollars in US milk powder exports

US NFDM and SMP exports fell 6.3% in January to July while their value rose 7.9%. Production is climbing, but the product mix is turning toward home.

Cashew packers stop committing forward ahead of the flowering window

Cashew packers are holding back from long-term forward contracts with INC and WMO confirming a strong El Niño over the November to January flowering window.

Fresh 50s fall below $100 after starting August above $150

Fresh 50% lean trimmings have fallen below $100 per cwt from above $150 in early August, implying the weakest 50s demand in two years.

Peanut acres fall 27% into a record carryout

USDA cut 2026 US peanut acres by 27% while carryout sits near a record 1.6 million tons, and 2027 kernels already price above this year's crop.

US cage-free egg supply looks to have peaked below half the flock

Cage-free layer inventories hit a record 150.7 million in August, but growth now trails the total flock and LEAP sees the segment near saturation.

Brazil's record-wet September pulls arabica below $3

The December contract lost 18.15 cents to $2.91 a pound. Brazil is on track for one of its wettest September starts on record, with flowering spreading widely.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Dark meat's run cools and leg quarters head for the $0.40s

Bulk leg quarters have come off a record just above $0.60 a pound to $0.52-0.54. LEAP expects the mid-to-upper $0.40s through fall and winter before a recovery.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Milkfat keeps building stock while milk protein tightens

Milkfat is still stock-building across all three regions while producers divert milk away from SMP, and US NFDM disappearance runs 30% above last year.

WPC80's standoff starts to break, and MPC 85 takes the lead

Buyers have stopped committing on WPC80 and offers are sliding, while MPC 85 is effectively sold out for the rest of the year across Europe, the US and NZ.

One beet belt, two harvests: EU sugar pricing turns uneven

France may lift 65 to 70 tonnes of beet a hectare against 90 last season, while Belgian yields hold near 90. Some producers have pulled their offers.

Beef packers flip to profit while feeders take the loss

The choice cutout has averaged below year-ago levels for 12 straight weeks, and packer margins swung from $250 a head in the red to $150 in the black.

The EU protein premium is now twice what a shipment needs

EU MPC 85 trades 29% above the US benchmark and WPC80 14% above it, against break-even premiums of roughly 5% and 6% once duty and freight are paid.

US egg producers squeezed between cheap eggs and costly corn

Shell eggs have fallen back into the $0.80s and September looks set to be the fourth sub-$1 month in six, just as feed costs turn against producers.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Brazilian selling pulls coffee back toward $3

December coffee fell 9.8 cents to 311.50 US cents per pound as Brazilian exporters stepped up hedging. Sucafina sees support near $3 per pound.

Cheese prices rise in Europe, fall everywhere else

European cheese offers are moving up on tighter milk, while US and New Zealand Cheddar keeps falling. The widening spread is a problem for EU exports.

Europe's certified eggs are being reserved for the shelf

European egg prices have risen for a fourth week, with barn eggs up 7.2% in a fortnight, and processors are the first buyers being crowded out.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

The audit ends a day after Brazil loses EU poultry access

New EU antimicrobial rules took effect on 3 September and the audit of Brazilian producers finished on the 4th. Brussels has set no timeline to restore access.

US broiler output grows at its fastest pace since 2004

US ready-to-cook broiler production is up 4.2% this year, and the cutout has fallen to the mid-$0.70s from over $1.10. Feed costs are the next worry.

Basmati climbs on a 40% kharif shortfall

Indian basmati rates rose through August as kharif output came in around 40% below normal, with mills and mandis holding almost no old paddy to fall back on.

Cocoa futures jump 12% into the new crop year

London cocoa gained 12.3% in a week while Ivory Coast is expected to hold its farmgate price at 1,200 CFA francs. Here is what sits behind the move.

Coffee rallies again while Arabica stays in surplus

December coffee finished at $3.4165/lb after a 23.75 cent weekly gain. The market agrees Arabica is in surplus, so the rally is about something else.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

Thai cane area at risk from higher tapioca prices

Thailand's 2026/27 cane area looks set to shrink as tapioca pays better, and the mills are turning to white sugar exports for the rest of the year.

Turmeric's third rally in a row ends the same way

Turmeric rallied and gave it back for the third fortnight running, even with carryover stock down to 5 lakh bags against 140 lakh bags of annual demand.

US cattle placements fall 11% and feedyard losses deepen

July placements came in at 1.42 million head, well short of every estimate, while feedyards carry cash losses of $300 to $400 a head and rising corn costs.

UCO climbs 19% while Hormuz traffic sits near zero

UCO firmed 18.7% and the biodiesel complex followed, while Hormuz transits fell to zero and German HVO demand more than quadrupled year on year.

Where the new US-Canada dairy tariffs actually bite

New US and Canadian dairy tariffs cover powders, whey and MPC, but the exposure is uneven. Here is where the duties actually reach trade flows on both sides.

Butter surplus grows while dairy protein markets tighten

Butter is piling up across Europe, the US and New Zealand while SMP tightens on strong demand, pulling dairy markets in two very different directions.

Directionless cocoa market awaits fresh pod counts for the new season

Cocoa futures are swinging within a tight range as traders wait for new pod counts and EUDR compliance risk builds for Ivory Coast's new season.

Q4 whey negotiations stall in a pricing standoff

Whey protein markets are stuck in a Q4 standoff between buyers and sellers, while milk protein concentrate is sold out and climbing on reformulation demand.

Soybean oil drops on EPA biofuel doubts; rapeseed follows

CBOT soybean oil fell nearly 6% on rumors the EPA could ease biofuel blending rules, and rapeseed followed it lower as a US-Canada trade dispute added pressure.

Trucking costs ease in the Netherlands while ocean and river capacity stay tight

The Netherlands is cutting its truck toll 22% through year-end, but ocean capacity, a fragile Rhine recovery and tighter Panama Canal limits keep freight tight.

Europe's beet crop drought pushes buyers toward imports

Drought has left Europe's beet crop unrecoverable in places, and Vesper estimates the EU and UK may need 3.4 million tonnes of sugar imports this season.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand snaps a losing streak

EMGE's May data shows cartonboard demand growing in every region it tracks, including Western Europe, which had been running 5% behind last year all season.

Hunger stones: Europe's drought markers point to rising food costs

Drought has unearthed centuries-old hunger stones in European rivers as Eurozone inflation hits 2.9%, with crop stress and freight costs both adding pressure.

Protein blends challenge whey's grip on sports nutrition

Sports nutrition brands reformulate around cheaper protein blends as whey stays expensive, mixing in MPC 85, MPI 90 and caseinate at a fraction of the cost.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

China's tissue mills keep running machines despite thin margins

EMGE's latest Tissue Market Highlights show China running new capacity even at thin margins, while demand eased across Western Europe and North America.

Europe's egg prices turn higher while the US market cools

European egg prices are rising into autumn restocking while US wholesale prices fall as supply rebuilds, with Polish disease losses tightening Europe's flock.

A summer milk shortfall squeezes Europe's cheese supply

Strong demand and a seasonal drop in milk intake are pushing cheddar, gouda, emmental and mozzarella prices higher across Europe, with mozzarella leading.

Brazil's uncommitted crop keeps a lid on coffee's nearby squeeze

Coffee futures rose to $3.179 a pound on tight nearby supply, but Sucafina expects prices to slide as Brazilian farmers still hold a large, unsold Arabica crop.

India moves toward its first major sugar imports since 2017

India is weighing a cut to its 100% sugar import tax as a weak monsoon threatens next season's cane crop, with global prices already firming.

Palm oil's forward curve breaks above MYR 5,000 while spot eases

Palm oil's March contract broke above MYR 5,000 a tonne even as the spot month eased, while Brent's climb past $90 lifted soybean and rapeseed oil.

US chicken breast demand hits its weakest point in years

Wholesale demand for boneless skinless chicken breast has slumped to its worst level in years even as broiler supply keeps growing, LEAP Market Analytics says.

Macadamia crop grows 11%, almond kernels come in small

Global Trading's August tree nut report has the macadamia crop up 11% and pressuring prices, while small first almond kernels push that market higher.

Smaller cashew and pistachio crops meet a macadamia rebound

ofi's July update puts the cashew crop 10% to 12% below last year and the 2026 pistachio crop near half of 2025, while hazelnut supply stays comfortable.

Tight milk sends processors toward cheese and whey

Seasonally tight milk is pushing European and US processors toward cheese and whey, lifting cream and SMP while butter stocks stay at decade highs.

Typhoon Dolphin's backlog outlasts the storm

Typhoon Dolphin has cleared the Zhejiang coast, but Ningbo and Shanghai backlogs, a record-low Rhine and new EU packaging rules keep shippers under pressure.

US milk: a summer hiccup or a real shift?

Heat has thinned US milk supply and lifted NFDM, but a growing herd and a wide feed-to-milk margin suggest the tightness fades once Q4 arrives.

Whey protein's climb stalls before Q4 contracting

Reformulation has cut WPC80 demand going into Q4, stalling the climb, while MPC 85, lactose and whey permeate tighten across Europe and the US.

Unsold cocoa stock in Ivory Coast keeps a lid on prices

ICE cocoa futures fell 7-8.5% this week as high Ivory Coast arrivals and an uncertain unsold-stock overhang weigh on price.

Brent's rebound lifts palm and soybean oil as Europe bakes

Brent crude's rebound to around $87 a barrel is lifting palm and soybean oil, while a European heatwave threatens France's corn crop.

China's ports reopen. The shipping backlog does not.

Typhoon Dolphin has passed, but the container backlog at Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai lands on an already tight August for shippers.

Europe's sugar beet crop has run out of time to recover

Drought has pushed EU beet yields in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK past recovery, weeks before harvest starts.

US butter, cheese and milk powder prices converge near $1.50

Butter, both cheese grades and NFDM are trading within cents of $1.50 a pound on the CME board, a rare level of convergence.

Egg markets diverge: Europe steadies while the US rally unwinds

Europe's egg market has stopped falling while the US posts its first broad weekly decline of its rally, and egg powder is now pricing off a different cycle.

EU sets an audit timeline for Brazil's poultry ban, opens a duck dispute with China

The EU has attached a firm audit calendar to Brazil's poultry suspension and opened a new anti-dumping case against Chinese duck imports.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Brazil's coffee quality disappoints, and ICE-certified stocks stay tight

Sucafina says Brazil's new coffee crop is falling short on cup quality and screen size, leaving little relief for coffee's shrinking ICE-certified stockpile.

Cheese prices hold firm through a summer that's usually quiet

Europe's cheese market is holding firm and even edging higher through what's normally a slow season, with buyers already locking in Q4 volumes.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

Falling Brent outweighs Black Sea risk in vegetable oils

Black Sea disruption should be bullish for vegetable oils, but a 5% drop in Brent crude after Trump shelved an Iran strike overwhelmed it across palm and soy.

India's spice markets share one problem: thin carryover stock

Cumin, coriander, turmeric, chilli, pepper and cardamom each moved on a different trigger, but India's spice markets share one thin carryover stock problem.

Why cocoa futures are swinging 5% a day

Realized volatility in cocoa futures has topped 90%, with 5-6% daily swings now routine, as thin liquidity and a shrinking 2026/27 surplus keep traders on edge.

Bolivia's blockades lift, but diesel shortages keep Brazil nut shipments stuck

Bolivia's road blockades have ended, but diesel shortages and port congestion at Arica are still delaying Brazil nut shipments this season.

Butter and milk powder markets test their stock cushion

Heavy production has left butter, SMP, and WMP stocks well supplied, and the second half of the year will show how much of that cushion gets drawn down.

Coffee futures rally: exchange stocks fall below a key threshold

ICE-certified coffee stocks dropped below the closely watched 300,000-bag threshold, pushing the September contract up 17.3 cents on the week.

India freight congestion deepens: blank sailings become the new normal

Container shortages and blanked sailings at Nhava Sheva and Mundra are delaying exports and pushing peak season surcharges sharply higher on the Europe route.

US churns record butter, but stocks run thin into autumn

US butter output hit a 31-year high for January to May, yet June stocks fell to their lowest since 2022 as cheap prices drove record exports.

Vegetable oils diverge as Brent crude retreats

Palm and soybean oil fell as Brent crude retreated below $86 a barrel, while sunflower oil rose on continued Black Sea port disruption and slow crushing.

Whey and milk protein markets run out of room to sell

Sweet whey, MPC, and lactose have tightened sharply on export demand, while WPC80 trade stays quiet until the Q4 purchasing window opens in mid-August.

Why sugar prices held steady through a volatile week

Raw sugar futures stayed under 14.70 cents a pound even as oil markets swung wildly, with EU beet yield cuts and Brazilian crushing delays in focus.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Europe's egg prices cool while the US market climbs again

European egg prices keep sliding on soft summer demand while US wholesale prices for large white eggs roughly tripled from early-July lows on tight supply.

Spain's Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly triple; Brazil braces for an EU ban

Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly tripled in Spain in two weeks while Brazil faces an EU poultry export ban from September, tightening the supply outlook.

Cocoa grindings rise nearly 10%, but prices swing both ways

Global cocoa grindings rose 9.95% year on year, confirming demand is holding, but London and New York futures still fell nearly 9% on the data.

European cheese firms on summer heat, mozzarella still out front

European cheese prices have firmed as summer heat cuts milk output. Mozzarella leads the move while cheddar still looks cheap heading into Q3.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Cartonboard demand extends its recovery, prices begin to rise

European cartonboard demand grew for a sixth straight month, and with costs climbing, mills are pushing through the first price rises in a long time.

Coffee holds a tense range as ICE margin hikes thin out trading

Coffee futures are stuck in a tense range as ICE margin hikes drain liquidity, pricing out smaller traders and sharpening moves on thin volume.

Heat stress builds for EU sugar beet as growers lock in low prices

A prolonged heatwave is stressing EU sugar beet just as growers lock in disappointing new-crop prices, raising the risk of factory closures in 2027.

Most starches firm on rising costs; potato holds steady

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch are firming on higher input costs and tight supply, while potato starch holds steady on ample stocks and weak demand.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

Coffee pulls back from record rally, settles near $3.30

Coffee futures cooled this week, with the September contract settling near $3.30/lb after a record rally. What happens next hinges on Brazil's harvest.

Macadamia forecasts edge lower while cashew season winds down

Macadamia crop forecasts slip in Australia and South Africa while the cashew season winds down, keeping tree nut buyers covered short into late 2026.

Reefer space, monsoon ports and a low Rhine: this week's freight pressure points

Shypple flags three freight pressure points for food shippers: sold-out reefer space, monsoon and typhoon port delays, and a Rhine too low for full barges.

US cheddar closes the gap with New Zealand

US cheddar jumped 10% on the month to $1.60/lb while New Zealand fell to a 20-month low, closing a price gap that opened the year at a record 75 cents.

Gasoil firms on renewed Gulf conflict; biodiesel drifts lower

Fossil diesel snapped higher as conflict around the Strait of Hormuz reignited, lifting the gasoil reference while biodiesel and renewable diesel drifted lower.

Sugar eases as India's monsoon catches up

Sugar prices have eased as India's monsoon narrowed its rainfall deficit, pulling weather risk premium out of the market against a firmer longer-term backdrop.

Whey protein pauses for breath as lactose keeps firming

Whey protein has paused after an extended run higher as buyers tire at current levels, even as lactose keeps firming on stubbornly tight supply.

Vegetable oils firm up on Brent and El Niño risk

Brent crude and an intensifying El Niño lifted soybean, rapeseed and coconut oil this week, while record Malaysian stocks kept palm oil out of the rally.

Why cocoa can jump 20% in two weeks and drop 7% in a day

Cocoa futures swung from a 19.6% weekly gain to a 7% one-day drop. Martijn Bron unpacks the volatility, the crop worries behind it, and what buyers face.

Cocoa jumps 14% in a day on El Niño supply risk

ICE cocoa futures gained more than 14% in one session and are up around 50% in a month as the market prices El Niño risk to West Africa and Ecuador.

Coffee posts its biggest one-day gain on record

Arabica futures jumped 72 cents in a week, including the largest single-day gain on record. Sucafina traces the move to fund flows and El Niño risk.

Europe's beet crop shrinks, but sugar stocks still weigh

Dry fields point EU and UK sugar production toward 16.1 million tonnes, down from 17.2 million, yet high stocks and record imports keep prices static.

Heat turns the European cheese market from bearish to bullish

A prolonged heatwave is cutting European milk deliveries and weakening components, flipping the cheese market from bearish to bullish within weeks.

Heatwave lifts Euronext corn to a multi-year high

Heat damage puts French corn on course for a 26-year low, lifting Euronext corn to a multi-year high while wheat eases on strong harvest progress.

One heatwave, two egg markets: Europe eases while the US firms

Heat is thinning supplies of large eggs on both sides of the Atlantic, yet European egg prices are falling while US prices firm. Demand is the difference.

Palm oil holds firm on stronger crude and festive demand hopes

Palm oil firmed this week as Brent crude climbed and Indian festive demand built, even as Indonesia's biofuel mandate timeline softened.

From pistachios to peanuts, nut supplies are tightening

ofi's June nut update points to tighter supply: the US pistachio crop could halve, peanut acres are down 21.8%, and almonds are 84.8% sold.

Poultry week 28: heat losses in Europe, record exports from Brazil

A record heatwave cut European poultry supply while Spain's Newcastle Disease cases and Brazil trade tensions add risk. Vesper's week 28 poultry view.

Soybean oil is pricing itself out of the US biofuel mix

Soybean oil's share of US biofuel feedstocks fell to 37% in April as producers switched to corn oil, tallow, and UCO. Vesper's weekly vegetable oils view.

US peanut acres drop 21.8%; supply tightens across origins

USDA puts US peanut plantings down 21.8%. With Argentina's harvest delayed and Brazil's area shrinking, Alimenta Agri sees prices heading higher.

Coriander leads a spice rally on thin arrivals and Hormuz optimism

Coriander rose about 9% on thin Baran arrivals, leading a broad Indian spice rally as US-Iran talks lifted hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to trade.

US milk powder keeps falling, heat wave or not

US NFDM fell 5.8% to $1.505/lb, now 34% below its May peak, as record milk-powder output kept prices sliding even as a heat wave finally arrived.

A heatwave lifted EU butter and SMP. Will it hold?

A European heatwave cut milk and cream output, lifting EU spot butter nearly 3% and SMP about 2%. But with stocks near a five-year high, will the rally hold?

Coffee shorts retreat while Colombian differentials top 60 cents

Coffee futures jumped 7.8 cents to $2.67/lb as overextended shorts unwound, while Colombian differentials topped +60 cents on tight, high-quality supply.

Physical scarcity drives basmati's sharpest rally of the season

Basmati rice rallied $8 to $10 per quintal, its sharpest move of the season, as old-paddy scarcity across India's mills outweighed US-Iran and Hormuz news.

Vegetable oils hold steady while Brent slips and Europe overheats

Vegetable oils held firm even as Brent slipped to $73. Palm oil rose on strong Malaysian exports, while a heatwave trimmed the EU rapeseed crop outlook.

Whey protein stays tight while sweet whey looks for a floor

WPC80 and whey protein isolate rose again on persistent tightness and GLP-1 demand, while EU sweet whey steadied, a sign its long slide may be nearing a floor.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

Cocoa rallies more than 30%; deficit fears return for next season

Cocoa has rallied more than 30% off its lows as the market turns to next season's West African crop, with New York on track for its best month since late 2024.

US butter: record output, leanest May stocks in four years

US butter makers are running flat out yet stocks ended May at 335.6m lbs, the lowest May reading since 2022 and down 8%, despite record four-month output.

Freight update: ocean rates near the top, new emission costs from July 1

Asia to North Europe ocean freight rates look to be peaking after six weeks of gains, as capacity stays tight and new EU emission surcharges take effect July 1.

Egg markets split as Europe nears a floor and US prices firm

The two big egg markets are pulling apart: Europe is still easing from its spring peak but slowing, while US prices firm as stocks tighten and demand picks up.

Summer lull pulls cheese prices further from their spring peak

European cheese has drifted further from its spring peak as the summer lull sets in, with Q3 covered and sellers left to increasingly competitive spot trades.

Cocoa jumps 11% as the market turns to El Niño supply risk

Cocoa snapped higher with ICE London July futures up 11% to £3,488/t and New York up 11% to $4,545/t, as the market turned to 2026/27 supply risk.

Coffee futures climb as short sellers bail out

Coffee futures pushed higher again, with the September ICE contract up 7.8 cents to $2.67 a pound as overextended short positions were forced to liquidate.

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

European grains firmed over two weeks as hot, dry weather raised yield worries, while US futures fell under harvest pressure and a sliding crude oil price.

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

BMD crude palm oil rebounded to $1,110/mt from $1,089/mt even as Brent slipped to $77.9 a barrel, with biofuel policy and weather now leading the market.

A new-crop tender resets EU sugar price expectations

A multinational bought 2026-27 sugar at €530 DDP, roughly €495-500 ex works bulk, resetting European price assumptions anchored to CXL import parity.

California almonds firm up as May shipments beat expectations

The California almond market is holding firm into the close of the crop year, after a May position report that beat trade expectations on shipments and sales.

North America paperboard tightens while Western Europe stays soft

Paperboard markets diverged through spring, with Western Europe staying weak, North America showing early recovery and Asian demand continuing to grow.

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter markets of late spring, shrugging off higher Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño chatter alike. Then London opened sharply up.

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

New Sathi paddy reaching mandis in western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand reset India's basmati market in early June, forcing old rice to reprice lower.

Ocean rates climb into July, with new tolls and surcharges close behind

Asia to North Europe freight rates have risen for six straight weeks, and procurement teams importing through the region should plan for more of the same.

Thin arrivals support Indian spices, but demand won't chase

India's spice complex spent the first half of June in a standoff: arrivals kept thinning across the major mandis, yet buyers refused to chase prices higher.

Brazil sets a poultry export record, but EU access hangs in the balance

Brazil posted its strongest poultry export month on record in May 2026, with chicken revenue topping $1 billion, yet EU market access hangs in the balance.

Egg prices fall on both sides of the Atlantic, for opposite reasons

Egg prices are falling in Europe and the US for opposite reasons, with cheap uncertified Eastern European supply pressuring caged and barn eggs in the EU.

Pistachio and peanut supplies tighten as hazelnuts stay soft

The nut complex is splitting between tightening tree nuts and a soft hazelnut market, with the 2026 US pistachio crop projected near 800 million lb, down 50%.

Coffee futures slide as speculators build their biggest short since 2023

Coffee futures fell again, the July contract down 13.3 cents to 245.9 US cents/lb, as speculators built their largest short position since 2023, says Sucafina.

European cheese softens as buyers wait out the summer

European cheese keeps softening. With Q3 coverage behind them almost all buyers have stepped aside, bids sit notably lower and sellers are struggling to move.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

Ivory Coast arrivals outpace last season, pressuring cocoa

Cocoa fell on supportive West African weather and a jump in Ivory Coast arrivals, with ICE EU down 6% to 2,940 GBP/t and ICE US down 6% to 3,831 USD/t.

Chicken prices fell across the board last month, but the autumn outlook points higher

Brazilian chicken breast fillet led a broad poultry decline, dropping 16% to around €2,890 per tonne, in a month where every benchmark Vesper tracks fell.

Coconut oil eases further on rebuilding Philippine supply

Coconut oil fell again this week, with CIF Rotterdam down about 4% and EXW Manila close to 6%, extending a decline that has run since early May on supply.

European sugar: buyers and sellers dig in on new-crop prices

The 2026/27 European sugar market is a standoff: buyers hold around €530 depending on volume while sellers try to keep the line near €600 bulk ex works.

Coffee futures slide to a two-year low as Brazil's harvest builds

Coffee futures fell 13.7 cents on the July contract to $2.60 a pound, the lowest since November 2024, as Brazil's harvest builds, according to Sucafina.

Whey protein pauses for breath, but the market stays tight

With Q3 purchasing largely wrapped up, the sharp rises across the whey protein concentrate complex are losing momentum, though the market stays tight.

Brazil's bumper crush and softer oil weigh on sugar prices

A strong Brazilian result and weaker oil have offset El Niño risk to keep sugar under pressure, with crude down about 4% and holding below $100 a barrel.

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice rose 16 to 25% in May, parboiled A1 leading from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt, while EU milling wheat fell to 180 EUR/mt then jumped 36 EUR the next day.

Cumin finds its floor while coriander supply tightens

India's spice markets waited on buyers through late May, and cumin produced a rare clear signal: Unjha traders named a floor of $2.09 to $2.11/kg.

Vegetable oils hold firm on crude rebound and biofuel demand

Vegetable oils steadied as Brent's August contract fell to $91 a barrel on May 29 then recovered to around $95 on reports Iran had suspended talks with the US.

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron puts down to silly season volatility.

Ocean freight tightens as June peak-season surcharges hit every carrier

Container shipping is under more pressure than at any point since the Red Sea crisis, with every major carrier announcing a June surcharge of $500 to $1,200.

Thai cane pivots to tapioca as China's sugar surplus builds

East Asia's sugar markets face weather and policy pulling opposite ways, with Thailand's three-month outlook pointing to above-average heat across cane areas.

US peanut acres set to shrink, lifting the price floor

The peanut market has moved back into cost-of-production territory after a long oversupply, with firm prices across the US, Argentina and Brazil.

Brazil loses EU poultry access from September; the authorisation body meets too late to fix it

The European Commission has confirmed Brazil cannot export poultry meat to the EU from 3 September 2026, after missing the antimicrobial compliance list.

EU egg prices correct from highs; heatwave hits at the worst possible moment

European egg prices are falling across all categories on rising imports from Eastern Europe and Turkey, seasonal weakness, and record pullet placements.

Record May temperatures lift European grain futures as US crop weather eases CBOT

European and US grains diverged, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 214/mt while CBOT SRW wheat fell to 648 cents/bu from 678 on easing crop weather.

Roasters build strongest seasonal coverage since 2022 as arabica futures hold at $2.70

The July arabica contract finished 8 cents higher at 272.35 US cents per pound, finding firmer support at $2.70 than expected as roasters built coverage.

US milk powder prices slip as production growth cools

US nonfat dry milk fell about $0.20/lb in a week, New Zealand powder dropped $200/mt at the GDT pulse, and European quotes eased from €2,900 to €2,800/mt.

US NFDM falls $0.20/lb in a week as global milk powder markets follow

US NFDM fell around $0.20/lb in a week and the move travelled, with NZ SMP down $200/mt at the latest GDT pulse event and European SMP easing alongside.

EU cocoa futures post a 10% single-session gain as the Silly Season takes hold

EU cocoa rose 7% on the week to 3,153 GBP/t for front-month July 2026, while the September contract gained 8% and at one point rallied over 10% in a session.

European cheese markets ease into summer lull as Q3 demand completes

European cheese prices edged higher on seasonal warmth and Q3 forward buying, then stalled as that demand was covered and the summer lull set in.

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

Indonesia has announced export centralisation for key commodities including palm oil from June 1, aimed at under-invoicing, onto an already softening market.

US cattle placements post largest year-on-year gain in nearly two years

April cattle on feed placements reached 1.70 million head, up 5.5% year on year and the largest gain since July 2024, according to USDA's latest report.

Südzucker's sugar division posts €177 million loss as S&P turns negative

Südzucker's sugar division posted a €177 million operating loss in 2025/26 against €13 million a year earlier, and S&P cut its debt outlook to negative.

Basmati paddy is gone at Indian trading centres; mills are paying up for what remains

India's basmati paddy has effectively run out at every major northern trading centre, and Punjab mills are now bidding against each other for what is left.

Coffee futures fall to $2.64 as US demand weakens and Brazil's record crop approaches

Coffee futures dropped to $2.64 per pound with the July contract losing 18.1 cents, as US demand weakened and Brazil's record crop drew closer.

European butter builds up while US milk powder holds the global floor

The global dairy market is running two stories at once: US NFDM is historically expensive and hard to source, while European butter production keeps building.

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel rose sharply in May, with FAME 0 up from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne and UCOME reaching $1,652, after the Bundestag adopted RED III.

Grains slip on US-China summit disappointment despite tight wheat supply underneath

The US-China summit brought no soybean purchase commitments and no tariff cuts, and CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel in response.

Ocean freight rates jump on early peak season while Hormuz stays shut for most

Container spot rates from Shanghai rose 11% to Northern Europe and 20% to the Mediterranean, as carriers pushed peak season surcharges ahead of the window.

Sugar's 2026/27 deficit is confirmed, but the size gap between forecasters is enormous

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 262,000 tonnes, a directional signal, though the spread between forecasters is huge.

Vegetable oils track Brent higher as El Nino and Hormuz tensions set the agenda

Brent rose from $104 to $112 a barrel and vegetable oils moved with it, on fresh US threats to Iran and a new Iranian body to oversee the Strait of Hormuz.

WPC80 prices at record levels as new protein demand grows faster than supply

The whey protein market is running an unusual experiment: higher prices are drawing in both more supply and more demand, with demand growing at least as fast.

El Nino shifts Cocoa Week London from bearish demand to cautious supply concern

Delegates arrived at Cocoa Week London focused on weak confectionery demand and left worried about supply instead. El Niño was the catalyst for the shift.

India's spice markets have a supply story, but buyers aren't listening yet

Six Indian spice categories, one story: supply is genuinely tight but buyers have gone quiet. Cumin arrivals at Unjha fell over 80% from the mid-April peak.

Coffee fails to break range despite fresh spec buying

The July ICE coffee contract closed the week 3.2 cents lower at 282.3 US cents/lb, even as speculators added 1,645 lots to their net long, a 9.9% increase.

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

Oil has held above $100 a barrel through May, but the bigger story is funds rotating out of crude positions and into agricultural commodities instead.

Imported beef hits a record 23.4% of US supply in Q1

US beef imports reached 599 million pounds in March, up 19% year on year, lifting Q1 to nearly 1.71 billion pounds and 23.4% of total domestic supply.

NFDM domestic demand jumped 178% in Q1 as US dairy markets diverge

The CME spot call closed mixed as the complex absorbed a stronger dollar and the US-China summit, with blocks down 6 cents and barrels down 3, both to $1.57.

European cheese prices rise as Q3 buyers return

European cheese prices have moved higher over two weeks, but in stops and starts, as fresh spot and Q3 demand lifted a market that had been drifting lower.

European eggs cool while the US flips from scarcity to surplus

European eggs are easing from post-Easter highs, but unevenly: caged and standard soften on Eastern European supply while free-range stays tight on disease.

Cocoa rallies 30% in a week on short-covering and crop risk

EU cocoa front-month May 2026 futures closed up 34% on the week at 3,551 GBP/t, with gains spread across the curve rather than concentrated in the front.

Vegetable oils ease with Brent on stalled Iran-US talks

Brent July closed the week at $104 a barrel, down from $114, after recovering off a $100 low as signs of progress in Iran-US peace talks then reversed.

US broiler supply keeps climbing while breast meat demand cools

US chick placements topped 1.18 billion over the six weeks to May 2nd, up 2.8% year on year, according to LEAP Market Analytics, as breast demand cools.

California almond shipments beat March expectations, Turkey absorbs Middle East rerouting

California almond shipments reached 257.99 million lbs in March, well above the roughly 225 million expected and up 16.5% on last March's 221.37 million.

Cotton rally and drought threaten US peanut crop, acreage cuts could top 20%

The US peanut market has reversed from oversupply concern to whether growers can plant at all, as cotton climbs at least 18% and pulls acreage away.

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar extended its climb, with the NY11 July contract closing at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on stronger oil and a firmer Brazilian real.

US milk powder shortage pulls EU and Oceania SMP prices higher

European and New Zealand SMP climbed again, with NZ passing $3,600/mt at the GDT auction while US NFDM keeps printing new highs on the CME spot call.

Whey protein tightness drives reformulation toward MPC 85 in Q3

The global whey protein market opened its Q3 window at fresh highs, with WPC80 leading the complex up and prompting a clear reformulation trend industry-wide.

Brent strength and biofuel mandates push vegetable oil complex higher

Vegetable oil prices rose across most of the complex as July Brent closed at $114/barrel against $101.7 a week earlier and biofuel mandates kept momentum.

Cocoa futures climb on El Niño concerns despite record surplus outlook

London July cocoa futures rose about 10% in two weeks on FMCG buying tied to El Niño, despite a forecast record 2025/26 surplus of 550,000-600,000 tonnes.

EU partially suspends sugar IPP imports for one year from May 27

The European Commission's sugar committee voted on April 30 to partially suspend Inward Processing Procedure imports for one year, effective from May 27.

Indian spice markets caught between tight supply and stalled export demand

Indian spice markets show one pattern across the complex: supply is tight, sometimes severely, but weak demand keeps capping or reversing every rally.

Cheese markets soften under weight of peak milk supply

European and North American cheese markets are broadly stable but the tone is bearish, with milk near its seasonal peak leaving cooperatives few options.

Cocoa prices find a higher floor on supply risk concerns

Cocoa has moved higher with the front-month May 2026 ICE Europe contract closing 3.7% up at GBP 2,495/t, as focus shifts from demand destruction to supply.

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher on Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blend increase from 30% to 32% and firmer crude, with Sugar No. 11 settling at 14.11 cents/lb.

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt after Germany adopted RED III, with tight EU stocks, strong crush and firmer crude oil all lending support.

Butter weakens while milk powders climb on record US NFDM pricing

Butter and milk powders are moving in opposite directions, with heavy milk flows pressuring butterfat while US NFDM hit a CME record and pulled SMP higher.

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

Conflict in West Asia and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping Indian spice exports, with sellers avoiding freight-inclusive terms entirely.

Coffee futures slip to USD 2.88/lb on improved roaster coverage

Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents to USD 2.878/lb on the July contract, dropping below the USD 2.90 to 3.05 range that held through the Iran conflict.

Indian basmati prices climb on tight supply and Gulf shipping uncertainty

Indian basmati has risen over three weeks, with 1509 Steam up to USD 90-91 per quintal from USD 82-83 and 1718 Sela climbing to USD 94-96 per quintal.

Whey protein prices hold at all-time highs with demand destruction still elusive

WPC80 and WPI remain at record levels in Europe and the US, above the point where reformulation has begun but not yet enough to close the supply gap.

Soy and palm oils lead vegetable oil gains on biofuel policy and crude rebound

Soybean and palm oil led the vegetable oil complex higher, with CBOT soy oil up to 69.63 US cents/lb from 65.50 on a crude rebound and Southeast Asian policy.

Energy costs drive starch prices higher across wheat, corn and tapioca

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch prices all rose month on month in April, as energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict squeezed margins and Q2 contracts.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

Nordic Sugar to close Porkalla refinery, first EU standalone closure since end of quotas

Nordic Sugar will close its standalone refinery at Porkalla, Finland and move raw sugar refining to its beet factory, the first such EU closure since quotas.

China set to overtake Brazil as world's top chicken meat producer

USDA forecasts point to a 5% rise in Chinese poultry output in 2026, enough to push China past Brazil as the world's largest chicken meat producer.

Energy shock threatens to lift EU food inflation to 5 to 10% by 2027

The European food industry faces a renewed inflationary period, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict passes through to consumer prices over two years.

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are raising biodiesel blending mandates, with Indonesia moving to B50 from July 2026 for public service fuel.

US egg prices fall below production cost while Europe stays tight

The post-Easter egg market is moving two ways: US supply has rebuilt strongly with no new HPAI cases in laying flocks, while Europe stays tight.

Wheat and corn prices fall on lower crude and higher supply estimates

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt and French wheat flour to EUR 309/mt, after a broadly bearish April WASDE report.

Cheese markets flip from Q1 shortage to Q2 surplus

Q1 was defined by limited commodity cheese availability as export demand pulled volumes out of Europe and the US. At the start of Q2, that dynamic has shifted.

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Cocoa broke above 2,500 resistance on fund short covering ahead of global grindings data, with the US-Iran ceasefire lending broad commodity support.

Coffee futures climb to $2.96/lb on ceasefire news

The July coffee contract rose 3.85 cents to close at $2.9635 per pound, rallying on ceasefire news after testing a low of $2.79 earlier in the week.

Sugar retreats from March highs on easing geopolitical risk

Sugar No. 11 stood at 13.88 cents/lb and No. 5 white at $424/mt on April 14, as ample supply and India holding its export quota outweighed easing geopolitics.

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt and CBOT soybean oil to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95, as ceasefire optimism and weaker crude weighed.

US broiler production on track for strongest growth in two decades

US broiler ready-to-cook output is set to rise around 3.0% in 2026, with key cut prices recovered from early-year lows but still well below year-ago levels.

Australian beef exports hit near-record volumes in March 2026

Australia's beef exports hit 149,973 tonnes in March 2026, up 33% year on year and the second-highest monthly total on record, on broad-based demand.

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian lamb and mutton exports fell to 42,656 tonnes in March 2026, down 24% year on year and 6% below the five-year average, as MENA flows contracted.

Coffee prices break below $2.90/lb support on Middle East uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 286 US cents per pound, down 12.35 cents, as a deteriorating risk environment around the Iran conflict weighed on prices.

US broiler exports slip in early 2026 with domestic dark meat demand providing support

US broiler exports started 2026 muted, with February shipments just under 524 million pounds, 4.3% below last year and cumulative volumes down 1.1%.

Butter leads dairy prices lower at start of Q2 flush season

Dairy markets entered a calmer phase at the start of Q2, with the flush season adding pressure to butter, SMP and WMP prices in Europe and New Zealand.

WPC80 shortage drives protein markets into uncharted territory

The whey protein market is splitting: WPC80 faces a structural shortage with no near-term relief, while sweet whey, permeate and lactose soften on exports.

Vegetable oil prices ease on ceasefire news, palm oil outlook mixed

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 sent Brent crude sharply lower, putting immediate pressure across the whole vegetable oil complex.

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings look set to stay well below historical levels through 2025/26, with European volumes down 8.3% in Q4 and pressure across the chocolate trade.

Variable spring weather disrupts EU sugar beet drilling, area down 7% year on year

Beet drilling has been uneven across northern Europe this spring, with France 93% planted by March 23rd, adding uncertainty to the 2026/27 EU sugar outlook.

European egg market enters Easter under supply pressure

Europe's egg market enters Easter with firm demand, limited supply and elevated retail prices, as disease outbreaks and staggered holidays tighten the picture.

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken prices reversed sharply in week 14, with whole bird and cut prices up 5% to 7%, driven by further escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Coffee futures pull back sharply after brief rally, with Brazil's harvest on the horizon

Coffee futures fell sharply, the May contract losing 14.45 cents to 292.55 US cents per pound, after a brief run to $3.19/lb met heavy commercial selling.

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa rallied at the end of March, EU futures gaining 7% in a session to £2,487/mt, though the move points to short-covering rather than changed fundamentals.

European cheese markets turn softer at the start of Q2

After a firm Q1 held tight by export demand, European cheese is softening as high production and a less favourable exchange rate press on sellers.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Sugar prices edge higher on crude oil rally, but fundamentals stay soft

Sugar moved modestly higher on a sharp rise in crude oil rather than any change in supply and demand, with gains trimmed once ceasefire talks emerged.

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Palm and soybean oil led a broad vegetable oil recovery on firmer Brent and new biofuel policy in the US and Indonesia, while coconut oil moved the other way.

Coffee futures break above $3/lb as tight supply and energy costs provide support

Coffee futures rose 14.15 cents on the week to close at USD 3.07/lb on the May contract, breaking above $3.00 for the first time on tight supply and energy.

EU sugar beet farmers face higher costs as energy prices climb

European sugar beet growers head into the 2026 planting season facing higher costs, with UK red diesel up 60% since the Middle East conflict began.

European butter prices correct sharply while SMP holds firm

European butter fell from close to EUR 5,000/mt to as low as EUR 4,200/mt in days, after fresh and older volumes came to market at the EUR 5,000 level.

Global cartonboard demand ends 2025 flat as regional trends diverge sharply

Global cartonboard demand grew 1% in December 2025, leaving full-year growth at zero, though the flat headline masks sharp divergence between regions.

WPC80 prices exceed EUR 20,000/mt as global supply falls short of demand

WPC80 has tightened to the point that transactions above EUR 20,000/mt are reported for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2026, with buyers locking in volumes well into the year.

Philippine biofuel policy uncertainty weighs on coconut oil prices

Coconut oil at origin fell sharply, with EXW Manila down to $1,918/mt from $2,271/mt, as Philippine biofuel producers grew wary of domestic policy changes.

Fuel surcharges climb and containers pile up as Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is pressuring ocean and air freight, with emergency fuel surcharges rising and 200,000 containers trapped in the Persian Gulf.

Ivory Coast weighs cocoa pricing reform after beans pile up at ports

Ivory Coast is weighing a reform that would make government-set farmer prices more responsive to international levels, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Corn and wheat prices climb on energy costs and tighter 2026 supply forecasts

Corn and wheat rose over two weeks on higher Brent crude and cuts to 2026 supply forecasts, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 207/mt from EUR 202/mt.

European egg shortage deepens ahead of Easter as disease outbreaks hit supply

Europe's egg market is under severe pressure 15 days from Easter, as HPAI and Newcastle Disease outbreaks force the culling of millions of laying hens.

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs as US supply tightens

US non-fat dry milk rose a further USD 0.08/lb on the week, a 4.53% gain that leaves prices just USD 0.055/lb below their ten-year highs on tighter supply.

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs despite record milk surplus

Non-fat dry milk rose 4.53% this week to within $0.055/lb of ten-year highs, a striking disconnect from surging milk production across all major regions.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

Record Brazilian exports push global poultry prices lower

Global poultry heads into late March broadly bearish, with Brazilian and Thai origins falling across whole birds, breast meat and wings on record exports.

Cheap milk, tight cheese: how production capacity is driving European markets

Raw milk is hitting European spot markets at €0.10-€0.25/kg in mid-March, yet cheese stocks are tight and prices firm, because capacity is running flat out.

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

Brazilian cocoa farmers expect to cancel around 50% of planned industrial cultivation projects, as prices below $3,000/t make new investment unviable.

Coffee futures pull back on record Brazil crop expectations

Coffee futures fell 4.05 cents on the week to 292.85 US cents/lb on the May contract, after touching 297.45, as record Brazil crop expectations weighed.

Wholesale beef prices rally sharply, but correction seen ahead

Wholesale beef has climbed fast, with the choice cutout up nearly $30 in three weeks and loins leading the move, though a correction is seen ahead.

Why a $100 oil price isn't lifting sugar markets

Crude briefly touched $100 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closed, yet sugar has barely responded, with Sugar No. 11 edging up to just 14.45 cents/lb.

Palm oil prices climb on B50 speculation and supply concerns

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,176/mt from $1,123/mt on supply developments, B50 biodiesel speculation and renewed strength in Brent crude oil prices.

US broiler market: weak export start, steady domestic demand

US broiler exports started 2026 slowly at 524 million pounds in January, while domestic dark meat markets have held relatively steady. What is shaping both.

Bakery market forecast 2026: flour, starches, eggs, dairy, vegetable oils, sugar, cocoa, nuts

Bakery procurement in H2 2026 faces mixed signals: some ingredients are softening, others under renewed pressure, and a handful in genuinely tight supply.

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers face an ingredient picture very different from the start of the year: cocoa has fallen sharply while other input costs have risen.

European beef market forecast 2026: structural herd contraction keeps upward price pressure in place

Cattle and beef prices are expected to keep rising into 2026, driven by continued regulatory pressure on producers and a self-reinforcing herd contraction.

European butter forecast: rangebound in H1 2026, with recovery expected as milk tightens in H2

European butter enters 2026 with ample supply after strong 2025 production, keeping stocks elevated and capping prices until milk tightens later in the year.

European Cheddar forecast 2026: lean stocks and firm prices despite strong production

European Cheddar production held strong through 2025 on abundant milk, yet stocks remain lean and prices firm as the expected supply-heavy H1 did not arrive.

European chicken market forecast 2026: prices fall on Brazilian import increase, avian flu risk persists

European chicken prices have fallen sharply since the ban on Brazilian poultry was lifted, as exports from Brazil to Europe more than tripled from November.

European dairy market forecast 2026: milk, butter, smp, wmp, swp, cheeses

European dairy in 2026 is not one market but several: some categories are well supplied and stable, others have tightened far beyond what was expected.

European egg market forecast 2026: avian flu outbreaks keep supply tight and prices elevated through Q1

Mass avian flu outbreaks have persisted through Q1 2026, with extensive cullings across major European producers keeping supply tight and prices elevated.

European Mozzarella forecast 2026: prices rise sharply since February as nearby supply proves scarce

European Mozzarella output held strong through 2025 on abundant milk, yet prices have risen sharply since February as buyers find little nearby product.

European pork market forecast 2026: African Swine Fever in Spain redirects volumes to EU markets, pressuring prices

The EU sow herd is forecast to shrink again in 2026 on environmental restructuring, with feed prices favourable but labour and energy keeping costs elevated.

European raw milk forecast: strong flush adds supply pressure across dairy markets in H1 2026

European raw milk output accelerated through late 2025 and that momentum carries into 2026, with the flush set to add significant volume in Q1 and Q2.

Glucose syrup and dextrose stabilise after 2025 correction, with energy costs the main upside risk

Glucose syrup and dextrose corrected through 2025 on easing corn and wheat costs, Turkish and Brazilian imports and soft demand. Energy is the upside risk.

Gouda market forecast 2026: prices move higher as stocks stay lean and Dutch production expected to shrink

Gouda output was robust across Europe in 2025 on strong milk, yet stocks stayed lean as consumption and exports absorbed volumes, and prices moved higher.

Lactose market forecast 2026: stability returns after 2025 price spike

Lactose rose sharply through 2025 as US tightness pulled European prices higher. That dynamic has shifted, and the global market is settling into stability.

Lauric oils forecast 2026: prices retreat from 2025 peaks as coconut supply recovery approaches

Lauric oils have fallen from 2025 peaks as the International Coconut Community expects global coconut oil output to recover to 3.515 mmt from 3.155 mmt.

Olive oil market forecast 2026: production normalises after two volatile seasons, prices expected to hold broadly stable

Extra virgin olive oil peaked near EUR 5,000/mt EXW Spain in November 2025, fell to EUR 4,300/mt in January and has since recovered to about EUR 4,600/mt.

Palm oil market forecast 2026: record Malaysian stocks weigh on prices despite Brent crude support

BMD crude palm oil has risen to USD 1,096/mt from USD 975/mt at the start of the year on firmer Brent and soybean oil, though supply has not yet tightened.

Pizza, pasta, savory snack forecast: flour, tomate, chicken, beef, pork, mozzarella, olive oil

H2 2026 brings pizza, pasta and snack manufacturers near-term stability alongside building supply risk, with some procurement windows unlikely to last.

Potato starch market outlook 2026: record 2025 harvest drives prices to lowest point since 2024

A very favourable 2025 crop has driven potato starch prices down, with Dutch output reaching 3.62 million tonnes, 15.5% above 2024, and Germany near 13.4m.

Rapeseed oil price forcast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill rose to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January on competing vegetable oils and Brent, despite comfortable EU supply.

Rapeseed oil price forecast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill rose to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January on competing vegetable oils and Brent, despite comfortable EU supply.

SMP market forecast 2026: US production shortfall pulls international buyers toward Europe

The global skim milk powder market has turned firm rather than supply-heavy as 2026 began, and that tone looks set to persist for the foreseeable future.

Soybean oil price forecast 2026: US biofuel policy drives sharp price increase, Argentine discount widens

CBOT crude soybean oil has risen to 65.33 US cents/lb from 48.56 at the start of the year, on firmer Brent and expectations US biofuel policy lands in March.

Sports Nutrition ingredients forecast 2026: whey protein powders, eggs, sugar, nuts, cooa

The sports nutrition supply chain is under its heaviest pressure in years, as whey demand broadens into medical, weight management and food fortification.

Sugar market forecast: raw, white, sweeteners

Sugar in 2026 is a surplus market, but the headline hides a lot: energy, Brazilian cane allocation and European supply all pull the picture in different ways.

Sugar markets stabilise after Q1 surplus pressure, with Brazil and energy dynamics shaping the outlook

Raw and white sugar spent most of Q1 under surplus pressure before stabilising into early March, as strengthening energy markets provided the counterweight.

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil has risen to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400 at the start of the year, on tight supply and firm Brent crude prices.

Sweet whey powder forecast 2026: European prices overtake US levels as costs rise and Middle East demand accelerates

Sweet whey powder shows a clear Europe and US divide in early 2026, with European prices well above the subdued picture first expected as energy costs rise.

Tapioca starch market forecast 2026: lower cassava yields and Laos competition pressure prices

Cassava production for 2025/26 is estimated at around 22.1 million tonnes, down from roughly 28 million in 2024/25, on lower yields per hectare across origins.

Tomato paste market forecast 2026: Q2 expected stable, but California and energy risks loom for H2

Tomato paste prices are expected to soften modestly in Q2 2026 from firm early-year levels, with the market adequately supplied and not chasing volume.

US Dairy forecast: milk, butter, smp, cheeses, WPC80

The US dairy market entered 2026 expected to be well supplied. That has changed: butter is tight, powder is tight, and whey protein is the tightest in years.

US dairy market forecast 2026: butter stocks at five-year low as demand and exports tighten supply

US butter is far tighter than expected into 2026: January output rose 6% to 231 million pounds, yet demand and exports left stocks down 17% on the year.

Vegetable oil market forecast: olive, rapeseed, soybean, sunflower, palm, coconut, palm kernel oil

Oils and fats in 2026 are pulled two ways: large harvests and record stocks point to comfort, while the energy complex pulls in the opposite direction.

Walnut market forecast 2026: abundant California supply offers buyers a favourable window

California's 2025 walnut crop came in at 801,432 inshell tons, 13% above the USDA estimate, leaving prices below production cost for many growers.

Whey permeate forecast 2026: stable conditions expected as WPC80 and WPI production stays elevated

Whey permeate is one of the steadier dairy products heading into 2026, largely insulated from volatility as high WPC80 and WPI output keeps supply flowing.

WMP forecast 2026: EU and New Zealand prices converge for first time since 2021

European whole milk powder follows butter and SMP together with milk availability. With butter rangebound and SMP firm, the WMP outlook has shifted up.

WPC80 market forecast 2026: Q2 volumes near sold out as demand outpaces supply across all major regions

WPC80 stands apart from the dairy complex, driven by demand rather than milk availability, and that firm tone is expected to persist throughout 2026.

WPI price forecast 2026: EU prices approach €25,000/mt as GLP-1 demand adds to supply strain

Whey protein isolate demand keeps outstripping capacity, with European facilities running flat out and no realistic path to increase output meaningfully.

Supply tightens and shipments slow across tree nut markets

Cashew prices are moving, Brazil nut supply is tightening and pecan shipments are down 35% year on year. What is driving each tree nut market this month.

US dairy exports hit records as American product finds new markets worldwide

US butterfat exports are up 166% year on year and cheese exports have hit all-time highs, driven largely by competitive American pricing on global markets.

Australian beef exports rise as tight US supply boosts demand

Australian beef exports rose 11% year on year in February to 130,884 tonnes, as tight US cattle supply and a 42% price discount lifted global demand.

Coffee approaches $3/lb as geopolitical risks support market

Coffee futures rallied toward $3 per pound, with the May contract up 12.3 cents to $2.969, as geopolitical tension and shipping risk tightened supply.

Tight skimmed milk powder supply supports global prices

Skimmed milk powder stays firmly supported as limited US and Oceania supply meets steady import demand, with the EU Vesper Price Index at €2,600 per tonne.

WPC80 shortage keeps whey market firmly bullish

Global whey markets stay bullish as tight WPC80 supply and strong demand across nutrition and food sectors leave Q2 volumes nearly sold out.

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Vesper models three Brent oil scenarios, at $80, $120 and $150, and traces what each would mean for global commodity markets and procurement planning.

Vegetable oils rise with Brent before sharp reversal

Brent climbed to nearly $99 a barrel on Middle East tension, lifting palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil, before energy prices abruptly reversed.

Cocoa sector turmoil deepens in Ivory Coast and Ghana

Disruption in the Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa sectors is deepening, with unsold beans, delayed payments and falling farmgate prices destabilising the market.

High EU sugar stocks keep market under pressure

EU sugar stocks have reached their highest level for this point in three years as the beet campaign ends, keeping the market under sustained pressure.

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Weather anomalies raise risks across key sugar regions

Unusual February weather raised production risks across Europe, Brazil, India and China, with northern France recording rainfall far above the seasonal norm.

US wholesale beef prices rise as slaughter slows and supplies tighten

US wholesale beef prices rose to the highest level since September as packers cut slaughter amid heavy losses and tighter cattle supply.

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases, with the Middle East conflict adding volatility.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Paperboard markets diverge as Western Europe softens and North America holds firm

Western European cartonboard and containerboard markets continued to soften in November 2025, while North America held firm.

European cheese prices keep climbing as buyers chase limited availability

European Gouda, Mozzarella and Cheddar all firmed into early March 2026, even with milk running about 5% above year-ago levels, as capacity stays the limit.

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

Ivory Coast has reclassified March cocoa as mid-crop rather than main crop, sharply cutting farmgate prices in a bid to move unsold stocks into the market.

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar hit multi-year lows in mid-February before recovering, with Sugar No. 11 at 13.93 cents/lb on 3 March as crude volatility offset a global surplus.

How escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil shipping

Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil shipping, insurance markets, and freight flows as tanker traffic collapses.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oils across the board, with freight costs climbing on key shipping routes.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Middle East tensions and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude higher. How that could reach food commodity markets.

Thailand's sugar output set to fall as disease and labour shortages reshape next season

Thailand faces a meaningful cane contraction in 2026/27, as white leaf disease, reduced migrant labour and a shift to other crops reshape the coming season.

European poultry market remains under pressure after brief February recovery

A brief February recovery on the return of school meals and monthly salaries has not reversed the broader downward trend in European poultry prices.

European sugar producers feel the squeeze as market prices stay low

Tereos and Südzucker have both reported major financial setbacks, with Tereos posting a €598 million operating loss for the first nine months of 2025/26.

Tree nut markets in early 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans

Tree nut markets are picking up into Q2, with buyers and sellers across cashews, macadamias, almonds and pecans working out strategy. Where each one stands.

Coffee prices ease as market weighs tariff ruling against supply dynamics

Coffee on the May contract fell 3.6 cents over two weeks to 285 US cents per pound, as a US tariff ruling and supply signals pulled in opposite directions.

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

A shortage of offers is lifting butter and SMP prices across Europe, the US and Oceania, as sellers export aggressively or hold back rather than quote.

WPC80 market tightens further as Q2 volumes near sold out across Europe and the US

WPC80 is tightening fast with Q2 volumes close to sold out across Europe and the US, and buyers now focused on securing volume rather than on price.

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Concern over a potential US-Iran conflict pushed Brent to $71.5 a barrel from $68.65, lifting vegetable oil prices broadly across the complex in week 9.

Blank sailings climb to 18% as carriers manage post-CNY capacity

Carriers pulled 125 of 710 scheduled sailings between February 9 and March 15, an 18% cancellation rate, to stop post-Chinese New Year rates falling further.

Cocoa prices fall 35% in a month as West African supply overhang deepens

Cocoa has fallen about 35% in a month and sits 70% below year-ago levels, with ICE EU March 2026 at £2,438/t as unsold beans build in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

European cheese prices hold firm in February, defying seasonal correction expectations

EU Gouda and Mozzarella have risen to around €3,300/mt in February, as low stocks and firm producer pricing defy the correction the trade had expected.

Sugar markets hit five-year lows as global surplus weighs on prices

Raw sugar fell to 13.86 cents/lb and white to $403/mt, the lowest since October 2020, as a projected surplus and rising European stocks weigh on the market.

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

BMD CPO settled at $1,030/mt from $1,043/mt on weak early-February exports and Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference flagged 2026 supply risks.

US broiler slaughter rebounds sharply after winter disruption, but growth expected to slow

US broiler slaughter rebounded to 178.4 million head in early February, up 5.6% year on year, after winter storms slowed the final two weeks of January.

South American supply boom reshapes corn oil trade flows

A record Argentine harvest and strong Brazilian estimates keep corn oil under pressure, with Conab revising Brazil's crop up to 138.87 million metric tons.

Structural shift in US skim milk use keeps NFDM markets tight

Four consecutive years of falling US NFDM production point to a structural shift in where skim milk is going toward MPC and butter.

WPC80 shortage intensifies with producers in control of pricing and allocation

Global whey protein concentrate 80 market reaches critical tightness with structural shortage affecting all whey products. Producers control pricing as domestic

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

Cocoa futures recover modestly as Ghana payment crisis leaves 150,000 mt stuck

Cocoa futures recovered slightly after sharp declines, but a payment crisis in Ghana and Ivory Coast has left farmers unpaid and 150,000 mt of beans stuck.

EU sugar production projected to fall 10% as consumption uncertainty clouds market outlook

EU sugar production is projected to fall to 15.4 million tonnes in 2026/27 from 17.05 million, on 7% lower plantings and less favourable growing conditions.

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

U.S. milk powder prices surge 30% in one month on supply squeeze

CME nonfat dry milk prices surged 30% in one month as low November production triggered a short squeeze. Analysis suggests prices may be...

Europe faces Easter egg shortage as Poland loses 5 million laying hens

Poland has lost at least 5 million laying hens in six weeks, nearly 10% of national capacity, pointing to severe Easter egg shortages across Europe.

Polish chicken prices fall as Avian Influenza outbreak triggers 2.79 million bird cull

Poland reported 22 new avian influenza outbreaks and culled 2.79 million birds, sending Polish chicken breast prices down 3.7% while French prices rose.

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z guidance restricts eligible fuels to US, Canadian and Mexican feedstocks and removes ILUC penalties, lending support to CBOT soybean oil prices.

Coffee futures drop 50 cents as roaster demand and exchange inventory shift

Coffee March contract dropped 50.1 cents to 317.1 cents per pound as roaster fixations concluded and exchange inventory began rebuilding.

U.S. broiler production forecast at 1.5% growth for 2026

US broiler production is projected at 48.7 billion pounds in 2026, up 1.5%, a downward revision from 2.1% after LEAP analysts adjusted their weight assumptions.

U.S. milk production rises 4.4% despite prices below cost of production

US producers pushed milk output to record levels in December 2025, even with Class III futures at $14.58 per cwt and Class IV below the cost of production.

US calf crop falls 1.6% as beef supply tightens through 2026

USDA's cattle report put the 2025 US calf crop down 1.6% at just under 32.9 million head, with beef cow inventories off 1.0% and supply tight through 2026.

Cocoa futures decline 30% in one month as speculators exit and grind data disappoints

Cocoa futures fell 30% in a month as Q4 grind data showed an 8.25% European decline and Ivory Coast faced trader defaults on sharply lower prices.

European skim milk powder reaches €2,200 per tonne as short squeeze lifts dairy prices

European skim milk powder reached €2,200 per tonne in late January as a short squeeze lifted prices 10%, despite structurally weak long-term fundamentals.

Whey protein concentrate reaches €14,320 per tonne in Europe as structural shortage persists

EU WPC80 instant reached €14,320 per tonne and US prices €15,067 in late January, as manufacturers sold out volumes and demand outstripped available supply.

Coffee futures rise toward 365-370 cents per pound as roasters accelerate March fixations

Coffee futures rose 0.95 cents to 356.25 cents as roasters accelerated March fixations before first notice day, with technical buying expected to push higher.

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,051/mt from $1,003/mt on Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, as Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments in favour of palm.

US beef cattle on feed placements decline 5.4% in December as margin pressure weighs

December cattle on feed placements fell 5.4% to 1.55 million head, as feedyards under margin pressure cut back on sourcing replacement stock.

Container shipping rates drop ahead of Chinese New Year as demand falls short

Spot rates fell by double digits on Asia-Europe and Asia-America routes in late January, as the expected pre-Chinese New Year demand surge failed to arrive.

European poultry fillet prices face continued pressure after holiday demand fades

Chicken breast and fillet prices fell across Europe in January as holiday demand faded, extending a decline that began in the second half of 2025.

European sugar producers face mounting losses as Süedzucker reports €136 million deficit

Süedzucker posted a €136 million operating loss in its sugar division against €23 million a year earlier, while Nordzucker recorded a €56 million loss.

US broiler production projected at 49 billion pounds in 2026 despite inventory headwinds

US broiler production is forecast at 49.0 billion pounds ready-to-cook in 2026, up 2.1%, though the hatchery supply flock still trails prior-year totals.

EU egg market faces structural supply pressure as avian influenza culls and trade restrictions tighten availability

Empty shelves across Austria, Germany and France signal structural supply tightness in EU egg markets. HPAI culls, slow restocking

India's sugar production jumps 22% while global surplus widens to 4.7 million tonnes

India's sugar production rose 22% to 15.9 million tonnes through mid-January, while analysts widened the 2025/26 global surplus forecast to 4.7 million tonnes.

US cattle placements projected to decline 4.9% in December amid border restrictions

December cattle placements are projected at 1.56 million head, down 4.9% year on year, as Mexico border restrictions and weak feedyard margins weigh.

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa fell over 12% to 3,347 GBP/t, a two-year low, as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana created a West African supply bottleneck.

Coffee futures fall to 346.5 US cents per pound amid Central American harvest pressure

Coffee futures fell 13.75 cents to 346.5 US cents per pound on the March contract, as Central American origins including Honduras reach peak harvest.

European cheese prices hold steady as butter markets collapse, shifting dairy valorization dynamics

Cheese holds firm around €3,000/mt despite peak seasonal production, while collapsing butter prices shift dairy valorisation calculations toward protein.

US broiler availability hits record high as wholesale prices weaken in Q4

US per capita broiler availability hit a record 18.9 pounds boneless in Q3 2025, up 3.5% year on year, while wholesale prices languished through Q4.

Paperboard market shows diverging regional trends as operating ratios hit multi-year lows

Global paperboard markets diverged in October 2025, with cartonboard operating ratios at multi-year lows and Western European demand down 14% on the year.

Brazilian sugar mills drop allocation to 35.5% in seventh consecutive fortnight decline

Brazilian sugar allocation fell for a seventh consecutive fortnight to 35.5%, down from 44.6% a year earlier, raising questions about the 2026/27 season.

Cocoa market seeks equilibrium after 50% price retreat

Cocoa futures trade in a narrow range as the market seeks equilibrium after a 50% retracement, with mild Harmattan and good rainfall supporting West Africa.

Shipping costs climb as pre-Chinese New Year demand hits Asia-Europe routes

Asia-Europe spot rates have climbed for a third consecutive week as the pre-Chinese New Year rush tightens capacity and carriers implement fresh surcharges.

U.S. dairy prices hit multi-year lows to close 2025

US dairy ended 2025 with declines across every category, butter down 45% and cheese down 28%, as abundant milk supplies reshaped the pricing landscape.

Broiler cutout value forecast missed actual 2025 average by less than two cents

2025 broiler forecast was nearly $1.00/lb vs actual, with leg quarters showing 1% error and premium cuts exceeding 10% deviation.

Cattle feeder margins deteriorate despite strong beef demand outlook

U.S. cattle feeders face losses exceeding $500/head by early 2026 after Tyson's Nebraska plant closure alters margin dynamics.

European butter prices head for sub-€4,000/mt in Q1 as surplus hits 93,700mt

European butter closes 2025 under pressure with the EU Vesper Price Index at €4,090/mt, and a 93,700 mt surplus pointing below €4,000/mt in the first quarter.

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers have committed to more than 150,000 tonnes of South American soybean oil a month from April to July 2025, fearing tighter palm and sunflower.

Trump's tariff plans create tight timeline for US importers

Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus 10% on China from January 20th, leaving US importers a tight six-week window to prepare.

WPC80 and WPI prices hit record highs on GLP-1 medication demand

WPC80 prices hit €13,000/mt and WPI reaches €21,500/mt as GLP-1 medication demand creates shortages in global whey protein markets.

Südzucker takes radical position with 15-25% beet reduction

Südzucker has announced beet reductions of 15 to 25% from its farmers and subsidiaries, a far more radical step than competitors including Tereos have taken.

Record cocoa short position reaches half a million metric tons

Managed money now holds a half million tonne short position in cocoa futures, a size that has never failed to hurt speculators, says analyst Martijn Bron.

Egg markets face dual pressure from avian flu outbreaks and rising energy costs

Germany reports 25 farm cases and France 33, the Netherlands has culled 62,000 hens, and Arctic weather is driving a sharp November energy cost spike.

EU chocolate inflation remains at multi-year highs despite cocoa price correction

European chocolate inflation stayed near multi-year highs at 17.3% year on year even as cocoa fell 60% from its peak, limiting any recovery in demand.

European cheese producers sell forward to avoid Q1 weakness as buyers hold back

Gouda has fallen to EUR 2,980/mt as producers lock in Q1 and Q2 sales ahead of seasonal weakness, while buyers hold back waiting for further declines.

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour has fallen to EUR 283/mt as record global output and an 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters against Russia and Argentina.

Coffee futures hold range despite record December delivery amid tariff relief

Coffee traded a 370-390 range as a record December delivery inversion worth a $21 million premium offset US tariff relief on Brazilian coffee imports.

European sugar processors announce 2026 acreage cuts following stock accumulation

European processors have announced larger-than-expected 2026 acreage cuts on high stocks, while Brazilian mills wrap up early with 120 units finished.

Palm oil prices decline on weaker crude oil and slower Malaysian shipments

BMD crude palm oil fell to $976/mt from $993/mt as Malaysian shipments dropped 19% in November and soybean oil faced pressure from China trade concerns.

Tyson Foods closure of Nebraska plant reshapes beef packing capacity amid DOJ scrutiny

Tyson is closing its Lexington, Nebraska fed cattle plant and streamlining Amarillo, cutting over 4,900 jobs as the DOJ investigates the Big Four packers.

US broiler production growth accelerates to largest quarterly increase since early 2023

Ready-to-cook broiler production rose 2.7% year on year over the six weeks to November 15, the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2023, per USDA-AMS.

Global milk production overwhelms demand, timing mismatches amplify market pain

US cheese hit 2025 lows and the butter spread to retail topped $2.77/lb, as strong milk output across the US, Europe and New Zealand overwhelms demand.

Coffee futures fall 16.55 cents amid partial US tariff relief

Coffee futures fell 16.55 cents to $376.6 US cents/lb after the White House announced tariff exemptions that excluded both Brazil and India from relief.

European butter surplus climbs to 106,000 metric tons

European butter production surged 5.09% in 2025 to leave a 106,000 mt surplus, with cream cheap at €5,500/mt and buyers already covered for their needs.

US whey protein shortage is pushing prices to record levels

A critical shortage of US WPC80 and WPI is forcing global buyers into European markets, as GLP-1 medication demand drives whey protein consumption higher.

Bullish mood for palm and rivals after the IPOC Conference in Indonesia

BMD crude palm oil climbed to $993/mt after the IPOC conference in Indonesia, where views diverged on production declines, land seizures and biodiesel.

European sugar producers cut beet area in emergency move

Suedzucker is offering a €10/tonne premium to cut 2026 beet area as European sugar falls to €425/tonne, while French growers battle virus yellows.

Shipping rates from Asia to Europe climb 3-4% on major routes

Shipping rates from Asia to Europe increased 3-4% on major routes as carriers manage capacity and 2026 contract negotiations begin.

Broiler market under pressure as thigh meat demand weakens

Boneless skinless thigh meat demand has fallen below its baseline for the first time in two years, with prices projected to drop 15-20% through 2026.

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa fell more than 9% this week to around 4,202 GBP/t, as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported a 5.3% fall in chocolate volumes.

Coffee futures hold near $4 amid Supreme Court tariff uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 393.15 US cents per pound, within reach of $4, as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA.

European cheese exports surge as dollar strength reshapes global trade flows

European cheese has regained export competitiveness as a stronger dollar pushes Asian buyers from US to EU suppliers, clearing stocks and steadying prices.

Rapeseed oil prices hold firm on tight supply and biodiesel policy expectations

December crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill reached EUR 1,085/mt, up from EUR 1,075/mt, with the market in backwardation on tight European Union supply.

Record yields drive European sugar producers to cut 2026 output

Major European sugar producers announce significant production cuts for 2026 as record yields and elevated stocks create supply pressures.

Western Europe paperboard demand drops in sharp contrast to other regions

Western Europe's paperboard demand fell sharply in August 2025 while other regions held stable or grew, according to EMGE's latest regional figures.

Vietnam cashew processors cut operations as raw material costs climb

Vietnamese cashew processors are limiting output or closing for the season as raw nut prices climb, tightening the market ahead of new crop arrivals.

Beef grading reaches record highs as choice-select spread narrows

Cattle grading performance has reached all-time highs for the season, with prime near 12.8% and choice at 73.2%, while the choice-select spread narrows.

Coffee futures rise to $387.7 as index roll period supports market

Coffee futures climbed to $387.7 cents per pound as strong roaster demand and the approaching index roll period prevented the correction the market expected.

European SMP prices supported by euro weakness as currency movements influence global markets

EUR/USD moving from 1.17 to 1.14-1.15 is supporting European skim milk powder prices despite weak fundamentals, with currency outweighing supply and demand.

Germany and Netherlands eye policy shifts that could reshape European biodiesel demand

Germany and the Netherlands are weighing an end to double counting for advanced biofuels, a change that could significantly reshape EU biodiesel demand.

EU proposes six-month grace period for cocoa deforestation law

The EU will propose six months of leeway on its deforestation law rather than the longer delay announced in September, with simpler smallholder requirements.

Palm oil drops $50/mt on B50 doubts and weak demand

BMD spot crude palm oil fell $50 to $974/mt as doubts grew over Indonesia's B50 timeline and Malaysian stocks rose, with Indian buyers shifting to cheaper oils.

US whey protein concentrate market reaches record prices as spot availability becomes critically low

US WPC80 has become virtually impossible to source as temporary factory downtime creates a shortage, pushing spot prices to a record $6.35 per pound.

Chocolate makers adjust recipes as cocoa costs remain elevated

High cocoa prices are driving recipe changes across the industry, with rice, oats and sunflower seeds replacing cocoa and some bars losing the chocolate label.

Chocolate manufacturers plan price cuts after consumers reject 30% increases

Mondelez reports higher-than-expected chocolate demand elasticity in Europe, with consumers pushing back after cumulative 30% price increases. What follows.

European sugar producers face break-even crisis with prices at €450

European sugar has fallen to €450 ex-factory beet belt on a bulk basis, pushing producers toward break-even after sharp declines in New York 11 futures.

Exchange rate shift sends US dairy prices into sharp decline

NFDM fell sharply as the exchange rate turned against US exports, with the dollar gaining and the euro losing ground to make US product less competitive.

Arabica prices seen falling to $3.50 per pound on political and supply shifts

Coffee futures are heading for a correction toward $3.50 per pound from 391.55 cents, as Trump signals tariff relief and Brazil's crop outlook improves.

Chocolate demand proves more price-sensitive than expected as Mondelez reports consumer pushback

Mondelez puts European chocolate demand elasticity at 0.7-0.8, well above the 0.4-0.5 the industry expected, as cumulative 30% price rises test consumers.

Raw sugar prices hit four-year lows on surplus concerns

Raw sugar futures fell to 14.37 cents per pound, the lowest since April 2021, after São Paulo conferences raised Brazilian output and Indian export concerns.

Trump-Xi meeting drives grain prices higher as markets anticipate soybean trade resumption

US grain futures rallied ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting, with CBOT soybeans jumping to 1,078 cents a bushel from 1,006 two weeks earlier on purchase hopes.

US cheese prices rise above European levels, affecting international competitiveness

US cheese has climbed to levels where international competitiveness is a challenge, with cheddar at $1.78 a pound while Europe offers very competitive prices.

Sunflower oil prices reach 10-month high as tight supply persists

November crude sunflower oil reached $1,405/mt from $1,360/mt, with FOB Ukraine at $635/mt, the highest since December 2024, on harvest disappointments.

Germany considers ending UCOME double-counting by January 2026

Germany plans to end double-counting for advanced biofuels including UCOME from January 2026 under RED III, potentially reshaping European biodiesel.

US butter prices drop sharply on CME as abundant milk supply weighs on dairy markets

CME butter has fallen sharply as US milk production grows 3% year on year alongside higher output from New Zealand and Europe, pressuring the whole market.

Butter markets show temporary stability but underlying weakness remains

European butter trades below €5,000/mt as abundant milk pressures dairy, with the EU VPI at €4,900/mt and SMP and WMP prices expected to decline further.

Coffee prices climb on tight supply concerns despite favorable Brazilian weather

Coffee futures gained 13.9 cents to 413.55 US cents per pound as certified stocks decline and US-Colombia trade tension threatens supply, defying forecasts.

European WPC80 market empties for Q4 following large volume purchases

The European WPC80 market has turned significantly tight within weeks, with Western European producers quoting above €12,500/mt after large Q4 purchases.

Ground beef prices spike to $300 per cwt as grinds complex rallies

73% lean ground beef jumped from just over $270 to around $300 per cwt in a week, but analysts expect the rally in the grinds complex to prove fleeting.

Black Sea sunflower crop concerns drive prices higher as supply outlook tightens

Sunflower oil rose $20/mt to $1,375/mt as Ukrainian crop estimates fell to 10.5-11.2 mmt from 12.7 mmt last year on poor yields and excessive rainfall.

Cocoa demand destruction confirmed as Q3 grind numbers reveal global decline

Q3 cocoa grind figures confirm demand destruction, with European grind down 4.8% to 337,353 mt and Asia down 17% as high prices hit chocolate consumption.

European sugar prices decline over 20% since May

European sugar prices have fallen over 20% since May to €475/tonne as exceptional harvest yields and evolving market dynamics reshape pricing

Rotterdam and Antwerp port congestion delays container shipments through October 2025

Strikes and protests caused severe congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp ports in October 2025. Container vessels face delays until month-end..

Cocoa prices fall 20% over past month as main crop expectations remain optimistic

Cocoa futures fall 20% in a month as West African main crop expectations remain optimistic. European Q3 grindings beat estimates.

EU considers 300% expansion of Ukrainian egg import quotas amid food safety concerns

The EU weighs a 300% expansion of Ukrainian egg import quotas as antibiotic residue detections raise food safety concerns for industrial egg users.

Global grain surplus puts buyers in control as sellers compete for market share

Record wheat, corn and barley harvests have put buyers in control, with French wheat flour up EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt on firmer Euronext milling wheat.

HPAI returns to Northern Europe after months of calm

Avian influenza outbreaks have returned to the Netherlands and Denmark, marking the start of the winter risk period as shell egg prices move seasonally up.

European cheese prices fall as milk production surpluses mount

European cheese prices decline across Gouda, Mozzarella, Cheddar and Emmental as milk production surpluses of 5-7% YOY create abundant supply

European sugar prices trade below import parity while 2026 acreage faces potential cuts

European beet belt sugar prices are trading below the €586 per tonne import parity threshold, while early data points to a 3% acreage cut for 2026.

Indonesia's B50 biodiesel program could reshape palm oil supply in 2026

Indonesia's proposed B50 biodiesel mandate would need around 3 million extra metric tons of palm oil, raising the prospect of tighter exports in 2026.

Sunflower oil prices climb as crop forecasts deteriorate across key producing regions

Crude sunflower oil for November-December delivery rose $10/mt to $1,360/mt at Ukrainian ports, as crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia keep deteriorating.

Coffee futures decline 17.7 cents to 373.60 cents per pound

Coffee prices dropped to 373.60 cents/lb last week. Brazilian rainfall supports 26/27 crop development with expectations of 5+ million bags..

Dry European weather and China frost risk test global grain outlook

European grain regions face a predominantly dry spell on the ECMWF forecast, while China's central corn and soybean belt braces for potential frost damage.

Butter, SMP and WMP tip in buyers' favor amid Q4 oversupply

Global dairy markets favour buyers as heavy stocks meet weak demand, with butter, SMP and WMP prices falling and production cost margins narrowing into Q4.

Whey protein supply runs low as Q4 volumes sell out

Whey proteins are bucking broad dairy weakness as Q4 volumes grow scarce, with WPC80 holding above €12,000/mt and WPI tightening further still.

Cartonboard markets show regional divergence as capacity shifts reshape supply dynamics

Western Europe and Asia face contrasting cartonboard market dynamics as new capacity and mill closures reshape regional supply.

Broiler market shows stark divide as breast prices plunge while thigh meat holds ground

US broiler market shows unusual split with breast meat down $0.30+ from averages while thigh prices hold near 5-year norms.

Coffee futures rise as certified stock decertification accelerates

Coffee futures rose 12.7 cents to 390.75 US cents per pound on the December contract, driven by rapid ICE stock decertification and Brazilian weather worries.

Palm oil prices strengthen as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals renewed China trade talks

Palm oil prices strengthened in October as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals soybeans will be key in China talks.

European sugar prices fall below import parity amid 2025 harvest season

European white sugar for 2026 delivery has dropped below import parity for the first time in a year, opening a rare window for manufacturers to cover.

How the EUDR delay is influencing cocoa prices and market structure

Discover how the EUDR delay, market structure shifts, and hedge fund shorts are influencing cocoa prices and procurement strategies.

Polish sugar beet growers earn €52.55 per tonne, highest in Europe with EU subsidy support

Polish sugar beet farmers receive €52.55 per tonne, the highest in Europe, while still drawing EU subsidies designed to support less competitive regions.

US dairy markets rebound as butter and cheese prices rise on CME

US butter and cheese bounced back strongly on the CME call, despite mixed cold storage data and continuing questions about long-term market direction.

European cheese markets face downward pressure as supply outpaces demand

European cheese is under pressure with Gouda at €3,170/mt and Mozzarella at €3,120/mt, as buyers move hand-to-mouth and high milk prices squeeze margins.

Raw sugar futures recover as Brazilian mills eye ethanol production shift

Raw sugar futures bounced back to 16.1 cents/lb as Brazilian mills signal potential pivot to ethanol production. European yields exceed forecasts..

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Argentina's tax holiday triggers massive soybean sales, pressuring global vegetable oil markets

Argentina's brief export tax suspension triggered 1.3 million tonnes of soybean sales to China and 300,000 tonnes of soybean oil to India in three days.

Beef prices face pressure as wholesale demand shows signs of cooling

Wholesale beef prices have fallen sharply since Labor Day with chuck cuts leading lower. What the demand shift means for fourth-quarter procurement.

Palm oil markets face competing pressures as policy shifts collide with tightening supply signals

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,026/mt from $1,038/mt as Argentina's tax suspension triggered soybean oil sales, even as Malaysian production data hinted tighter.

Coffee prices increase on inventory drawdown after technical selloff

Coffee rallied after ICE certified stocks fell 11.5% in five days, with the December contract jumping 11.55 cents to $3.7805 and reversing a technical selloff.

European whey protein concentrate hits price ceiling as production declines persist

European WPC80 has stabilised around €12,150/mt while US markets keep climbing, with production down more than 10% across regions on processor cutbacks.

Coconut oil prices drop $240/mt as demand weakens across key markets

EXW Manila coconut oil fell $240/mt to $2,400/mt as weak demand pressured origin suppliers, while CIF Rotterdam moved the other way to $2,675/mt.

Global butter prices plummet as oversupply hits all major markets

Butter has fallen below ten-year averages as milk production surges 5.44% in the US and 2.46% in New Zealand, with CME butter down to $1.68 per pound.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

The EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters and their tracking systems, though a second delay may bring relief.

EU sugar prices tumble €25 per tonne as harvest outlook brightens

European sugar corrected sharply, with prices falling about €25 per tonne across the EU beet belt on exceptionally good harvest conditions this season.

Starch markets show mixed signals as industrial demand softens

September starch markets are mixed, with European potato starch facing oversupply while tapioca demand from Chinese manufacturers stays robust.

US dairy prices tumble as global competition intensifies

US butter has dropped to $1.805/lb with NFDM at its weakest in months, as European markets soften and EUR/USD shifts intensify global export competition.

Cheese markets under pressure as European and US spot prices decline

EU and US cheese markets face pressure as buyers delay purchases and spot prices decline across Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella varieties.

Raw sugar futures break below 16 cents as Brazilian mills weigh ethanol shift

Raw sugar futures closed at 15.9 cents per pound on higher supply expectations and negative fund positioning, as Brazilian mills weigh a shift to ethanol.

US wholesale beef prices drop nearly $9 as demand weakens beyond seasonal norms

US choice cutout prices fell nearly $9 last week with spot trade pointing to another $10 drop, a decline running well beyond the usual seasonal pattern.

Coffee prices break trading range as Brazil weather and supply tightness drive market higher

Coffee prices rose 23.2 cents/lb to $396.85 per pound as ICE certified stocks fell 23,000 bags and Brazil's rainy season finally returns.

Palm oil prices rise on stronger crude oil and rival vegetable oils

Palm oil prices increased to MYR 4,383/mt driven by stronger Brent crude and rival oils, though gains remain limited amid complex vegetable oil dynamics.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

US dairy markets fall through support levels as milk oversupply weighs on prices

CME butter fell through the $2/lb support level in a bearish week, as milk production up 3.45% year on year keeps expanding the pool and crushing prices.

European sugar harvest begins with mixed crop conditions and trade uncertainties

Europe's sugar beet harvest has begun across most regions, with processors ramping up against variable crop conditions and shifting trade policy.

Global dairy markets plunge as oversupply overwhelms demand across all categories

Global dairy markets plunge as unprecedented milk oversupply overwhelms demand. Analysis of butter crash, SMP weakness, and production cycle implications.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Whey markets return to familiar patterns as protein concentrates dominate demand

Whey markets settle into familiar patterns as WPC80 dominates demand while permeate and lactose struggle. Analysis of Q4 positioning and trade flows.

Cocoa price discovery breaks down as structural problems persist

Cocoa markets struggle with broken price signals as Ghana's debt crisis deepens and Brazilian farmers face oligopolistic pricing pressure from processors.

Global dairy markets tumble as demand weakness triggers widespread price declines

Dairy markets face sharp declines as demand weakness triggers widespread selling. Butter approaches critical $2/lb level while milk powder prices fall over 5% a

Brazil lifts sugar production to five-year high while Europe faces oversupply

Brazil’s Center–South mills pushed sugar output to the highest early-August level in five years, with 55% of cane directed to sugar.

European cheese markets join widespread dairy price declines as buyers retreat

European cheese is driving a broad dairy decline as buyers step back, with Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella and Emmental all under pressure from strong production.

Canadian canola exports to EU face certification bottleneck while trade tensions with China persist

Canadian canola exports to EU may be capped at 2-4 MMT due to biodiesel certification requirements, forcing exporters to redirect volumes.

Côte d'Ivoire cocoa crop faces weather challenges as rain distribution remains uneven

West African cocoa regions are seeing mixed rainfall ahead of harvest, with uneven distribution across Côte d'Ivoire and different conditions recorded in Ghana.

China's sugar imports surge while Inner Mongolia records heaviest rainfall since 1956

China's July sugar imports jumped to 740,000 tonnes as record rainfall in Inner Mongolia threatens 30% beet crop losses.

European butter prices drop to €6,700/mt as supply surplus reaches 56,500mt

European butter has fallen to €6,700/mt as the supply surplus reaches 56,500 mt, with butter prices declining across all major regions and buyers in control.

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

US tariffs of 50% on most imports from India kick in today, affecting key commodities like basmati rice, spices, pulses, tea and dairy.

Coconut oil prices increase at origin amid supply constraints

EXW Manila coconut oil rose $230/mt in a single week as copra shortages and reduced Philippine exports pushed origin prices up off their recent lows.

Coffee futures hit $3.78 as roaster panic drives eight-day rally

Coffee futures rose 44.10 cents to $3.78/lb on the December contract, an eighth straight day of gains, as roaster buying increased by 17% on the week.

Ivory Coast cuts cocoa export forecast as severe drought threatens global supply

Ivory Coast has cut main crop export contracts by 100,000 tonnes to 1.2 million as severe drought and disease threaten the top producing nation's crop.

US broiler production growth capped at 1.5% as breeder inventories decline

US broiler growth is capped as the hatchery supply flock falls to 60.2 million hens at August 1, down 2.3% from 61.6 million a year earlier.

Container shipping rates drop 6% in single week as peak season ends

Container spot rates fell 6% in a week as peak season ends, with Shanghai-Rotterdam showing the steepest decline of any major lane on Drewry's index.

US milk production reaches highest growth since 2021 as southern states lead expansion

US milk production posted its strongest growth in over three years in July, with western states up 3.59% year on year and southern regions above 7.5%.

Brazil cuts sugar production forecasts as yields decline

Brazil's Center-South has trimmed 2025/26 sugar output estimates to 40.9-41 million tonnes on lower agricultural yields and declining sugar content in cane.

European cheese markets show widening price spreads

European cheese shows €500/mt spreads between buyer bids and seller offers in late August, leaving Cheddar, Gouda and Mozzarella markets under pressure.

Starch procurement faces uncertainty as Trump tariffs reshape supply chains

Trump's 10% tariffs on major starch exporters create procurement challenges as food demand stays strong but industrial applications weaken.

Cattle feeding margins hit potential cycle peak amid record corn yields and increased replacement costs

Cattle feeders hit $600+ per head returns from record corn yields and strong fed cattle prices, but surging feeder cattle costs to $344/cwt.

Indonesian palm oil stocks remain at normal levels as production exceeds estimates

Indonesian palm oil stocks have held at normal seasonal levels after a surprising 15% jump in June production, confounding earlier estimates of tightness.

USDA corn estimates surprise markets with massive production increase

USDA surprises corn markets with 16.7 billion bushel production forecast, pushing futures to new lows. Check out the latest corn prices.

CIF Rotterdam coconut oil follows origin decline with $250/mt fall

CIF Rotterdam coconut oil drops to $2,650/mt after holding steady, as Philippines origin pressure forces European importers to reduce prices.

Dairy fat prices correct lower as milk production increases globally

Global dairy fat prices face downward pressure from record milk production while whey protein markets enter tight Q4 purchasing window.

Cocoa: weak demand is priced in, supply problems not

Weak cocoa demand is fully priced in but supply disruption is not, an asymmetry that lets futures jump 10% in a session on West African weather reports.

Coconut oil prices collapse 34% in one week as supply dynamics shift

Coconut oil prices plummet from $2,600/mt to $1,837/mt at origin while CIF Rotterdam remains elevated, a $1,000+ arbitrage gap.

Coffee futures rally 32 cents in one week amid Brazilian import tariffs

Coffee futures surge to 314.05 cents/lb as 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports force roasters to restructure supply chains.

Delayed flock refreshment keeps older hens in European production, constraining supply and quality

European egg producers keep older hens in production longer due to delayed flock refreshment, creating supply constraints and quality challenges.

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contracting is running later than the usual June-July window, as elevated 2024 production leaves higher stock availability across the market.

European egg powder producers maintain firm pricing stance ahead of seasonal demand increase

EU egg powder producers resist price negotiations and tighten spot market availability as they prepare for seasonal autumn demand increase.

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

China UCO exports rise as US policy limits biodiesel feedstock imports

Chinese UCO exports jumped to 262,000 mt in June while US imports plummeted to 93,524 mt following new biofuel credit policies.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

European cheese prices face summer pressure as trading activity slows

European cheese prices face summer pressure with cheddar at €4,430/mt, gouda at €4,050/mt, and mozzarella at €4,000/mt as trading activity slows.

CBOT soybean prices reach new lows amid China demand concerns

CBOT soybean prices hit new lows at 969 cents per bushel as China plans 10 million tonne import cuts, with weather volatility expected through August.

Trump’s tariff deadline has passed: How it’s affecting agricultural commodity trade, country by country

Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline has passed. Explore how agricultural exports are affected, with a country-by-country breakdown.

US butter stocks drop despite rising milk supply as demand outpaces expectations

US butter stocks declined in June despite a significant increase in milk production and milk fat levels, highlighting strong consumption.

European butter market under pressure amid summer slowdown

European butter prices edge below €7,000/mt as summer trade stays subdued, with sellers holding out rather than cutting further in hope of an August pickup.

How EUR/USD exchange rate shifts are affecting global dairy prices

A move from 1.17 to 1.15 in EUR/USD has already shifted export competitiveness and price levels across European dairy, from SMP through to butter.

Increased inventories in the palm oil market due to slower exports and strong production in Malaysia

Malaysian palm oil inventories rise as production increases 5.52% while exports decline 9.23%. CPO prices drop to $983/mt.

Cocoa prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand destruction

Cocoa prices rise despite weak demand as West African production concerns outweigh processing declines | Market Analysis.

Core reason U.S. beef production won’t rebound until 2027

Learn why U.S. beef production won't rebound until 2027, what's driving the delay, and how procurement teams should strategically prepare.

Port congestion hits European hubs while new US trade deals impact supply chains

Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg experience container delays, while Trump's 15% EU tariff deal reshapes global commodity flows.

Tracking Trump’s US agri-commodity trade tariffs

US President Donald Trump is set to implement taxes as high as 50% on agricultural imports unless deals can be negotiated before August 1.

Why are U.S. butter prices declining while Europe and New Zealand’s remain high?

US butter prices have fallen sharply on oversupply while Europe and New Zealand hold at elevated levels, showing how far regional supply balances diverge.

U.S.–Japan trade deal secures key win for dairy exporters amid global market pressure

Learn how this deal provides critical relief for U.S. cheese, whey, and lactose producers facing global competition in Japan.

Arabica coffee futures climb 17 cents as tariff concerns and weather risks support prices

Arabica coffee futures climb to 301.35 cents/lb as Brazilian tariff deadline approaches and weather models show potential frost risks.

Global cheese prices slip as summer demand weakens across Europe and US markets

Global cheese markets soften as European summer holidays reduce demand while production remains steady - cheddar, gouda, mozzarella, emmental

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

What a 50% US tariff could mean for Brazilian orange juice, coffee, and beef trade

US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tax on all Brazilian exports could significantly affect global supply and pricing.

August 1 dairy tariffs set to reshape US import markets as European butter hits €7,000

With August 1 approaching, dairy tariff increases are building market tension as European butter reaches €7,000/mt and US whey faces export uncertainty.

European sugar market adjusts as drought breaks and trade dynamics shift

European sugar beet crops get relief as heatwave ends and rainfall arrives. Expert analysis on weather recovery, trading dynamics, and policy impacts.

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

Global dairy markets grapple with weakness and uncertain direction

Global dairy markets face widespread weakness across butter, milk powder categories. Analysis of uncertain market direction and changing fundamentals.

US-EU trade tensions: impact on dairy, olive oil, and baked goods

US President Donald Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on European goods and the EU's countermeasures could significantly impact global food commodity trading.

USDA drastically revises soybean oil outlook as biofuel regulations reshape US demand

USDA projects record 15.5 billion pounds soybean oil for biofuels, cuts exports from 1.7B to 700M bushels. Palm oil and sunflower oil rally.

Whey protein markets signal forward strength as Q4 anticipation builds

Whey protein markets shift focus to Q4 positioning as trade policy concerns grow. Analysis of WPC80, WPI trends, and forward buying strategies.

US dairy markets stabilize as tariff extension removes immediate trade pressure

US dairy markets stabilize after tariff extension as heat wave impacts supply. Weekly analysis of CME trading, butter prices, and divergent export trends.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

European cheese markets adapt strategies as supply pressures mount across categories

European cheese markets face supply pressures as producers adapt strategies. Analysis of cheddar, mozzarella, gouda trading amid currency headwinds.

Sugar prices rally on strong export demand despite soft fundamentals

New York raw sugar futures reversed recent declines as Brazilian vessel line-ups surged and refining demand improved, despite fundamentals still soft.

Summer calm masks powder procurement urgency as egg markets stabilize

European egg prices resist summer drops while US processing hits 2025 highs. Powder buyers face mounting urgency as forward contracts resume at higher prices.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

Cocoa markets face double pressure from weather relief and tariff uncertainty

Cocoa futures fell 9.6% in London and 9.2% in New York as West African weather improved, while US trade tariff uncertainty kept the market volatile.

European sugar market faces perfect storm of heat, drought, and trade pressures

Heatwaves stress European sugar beet crops as water levels hit record lows. Expert analysis on weather risks, trade policy impacts, and market outlook.

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

US dairy markets rally across all products as July 4th legislation drives optimism

US dairy prices surge across all CME products as new congressional legislation boosts markets. Butter and cheese hit production records in May data.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

European whey markets face demand drought as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers

European whey markets face challenges as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers. Analysis of sweet whey powder, protein concentrates, and trade dynamics.

Second half of 2025 opens with dairy market weakness as seasonal pressures mount

H2 2025 dairy market analysis shows widespread weakness despite mixed fundamentals. GDT auction results, butter-cream disconnect, and seasonal pressures.

Cocoa prices drop as Ghana boosts crop forecast, but weather risks loom large

New York cocoa falls to $9,000 as Ghana increases crop forecast 8.3%. Côte d'Ivoire arrivals up 5.7% but rainfall concerns persist in West Africa.

Coffee futures hit annual low as Brazil frost concerns fade

Coffee futures drop to 303.75 cents/lb as Brazil frost concerns dissipate. Expert analysis reveals market dynamics and trading opportunities ahead.

Vegetable oil markets face pressure as Brent crude weakens and supply forecasts rise

Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed markets decline as Brent crude drops to $67.61/barrel. Get expert analysis on supply forecasts.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Week 26: biodiesel prices fell hard on the Israel-Iran ceasefire before recovering, as European regulatory changes reshaped HVO and UCO demand.

Egg powder producers face mounting pressure as shell prices remain firm

European egg markets resist summer price drops while US processing hits 2025 highs. Powder producers face mounting pressure as shell egg prices remain stable.

European cheese markets show mixed signals as Q2 ends

European cheese markets face inventory pressure as Q2 winds down. Mozzarella prices fall to €4,150/mt, cheddar drops 20%, while Emmental holds steady.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Sugar prices under pressure as energy markets shift: What traders need to know

Sugar futures decline as oil prices drop and energy-ethanol dynamics shift. Get expert analysis on Brazil production and EU crop risks.

Cocoa market shows signs of recovery as West African rains improve crop prospects

Cocoa futures drop 15% as West African rains improve crop prospects. Analysis of supply recovery, smuggling challenges, and market outlook.

European sugar market faces weather challenges as 2025-26 pricing negotiations begin

European sugar beet production faces extreme weather as 2025-26 price negotiations begin. Import dynamics and drought concerns shape outlook.

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Biodiesel prices strengthen on geopolitical tensions and EPA mandate boost

Week 25: biodiesel markets strengthen as the Iran conflict lifts the energy complex and the EPA proposes 5.61 billion gallon biofuel blending targets.

Cocoa markets find stability as weather shifts from drought to flood concerns

Cocoa futures find stability after volatile period, but excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raises new supply concerns.

Dairy markets face pricing pressures as butter strength contrasts with powder weakness

European butter holds firm despite cream price volatility while milk powders show seasonal weakness, leaving wide spreads between buyers and sellers.

Global whey markets navigate trade uncertainty as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe

Latest whey powder market trends as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe. Expert analysis on WPC80, SWP, and WPI.

US dairy markets retreat from recent highs as seasonal patterns emerge

Latest US dairy market update shows cheese prices pulling back from highs while trans-Atlantic protein spreads remain wide.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Global starch market outlook: June 2025 trade analysis shows price stability amid supply chain disruptions

Latest starch market intelligence reveals price stability across corn, potato, tapioca & wheat sectors despite trade disruptions.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Week 24: FOB ARA biodiesel prices climb after ISCC certification is suspended for a major European biorefinery and petroleum diesel fundamentals firm.

Cocoa market enters "silly season" as weather uncertainty and policy volatility create perfect storm

Cocoa market enters volatile "silly season" with 20-year low liquidity, weather uncertainty in West Africa, and policy disruptions.

European cheese markets enter summer calm after Q3 trading activity

European cheese markets enter summer calm as Q3 trading activity slows. Cheddar, emmental, gouda, and mozzarella prices stabilize amid buyer-seller standoff.

Sugar prices hit four-year low as global surplus outlook emerges

Sugar futures hit lowest levels since 2021 as global surplus emerges. Brazil production recovers while European markets face mixed signals.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Butter breaks $2.50/lb as US celebrates national dairy month amid mixed production signals

US butter climbed back above $2.50/lb on an absence of CME offers, even as April data showed output up 3.86% and protein powders moved the other way.

Biodiesel markets caught in regulatory whirlwind as policy uncertainty deepens

Washington's tariff reversals create biodiesel market paralysis. Congressional incentives pending while feedstock flows shift.

Cocoa markets remain volatile as ICCO widens global supply deficit to 494,000 tons

The ICCO widened its 2023/24 cocoa deficit estimate to 494,000 tons as mid-crop quality concerns persist in West Africa. Futures hit $10,974 before easing.

Dairy markets surge as peak milk season ends, butter prices trigger buyer anxiety

Dairy markets rally as Northern Hemisphere exits peak milk production. Butter hits €7,500/mt amid supply fears. Raw milk, cream prices jump.

Global Vegetable Oil markets face tariff turbulence and weather uncertainty

Vegetable oil prices volatile as 50% EU tariffs flip daily while weather threatens crops. Palm, soy, rapeseed & sunflower oil analysis + AI forecasts.

Whey markets struggle to find middle ground as trade tensions intensify

Whey ingredient prices hit extremes as trade tensions disrupt markets. WPC80 up 255% in 2 years while lactose, WPI show volatile swings.

China's massive Sugar purchases signal market shift as Asian production outlook strengthens

Chinese buyers took an estimated 2.5 million tonnes of raw sugar in May, exhausting the import quota, while Thailand's production outlook strengthens.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

Global Egg markets show signs of stability as Avian Flu pressures begin to ease

European egg prices defy seasonal expectations while US markets correct following Memorial Day. Avian flu impacts ease as markets show cautious optimism.

US dairy markets show strength amid VUCA environment as Butter prices surge $0.16/lb

US dairy markets rally as butter prices surge $0.16/lb following unexpected cold storage data. NFDM and dry whey gain on weak dollar.

European cheese markets show signs of tightening as Q3 demand accelerates

European cheese prices stabilise as buyers return for June and Q3 volumes, with Mozzarella at €4,130/mt and production constraints looming into the autumn.

Sugar prices under pressure as global surplus expectations dominate market sentiment

Global sugar surplus drives prices lower despite European beet acreage cuts and drought stress. Raw sugar hits 17.2 cents/lb.

Palm oil prices decline as Malaysian production growth slows in week 22

CPO futures decline while Malaysian palm oil exports surge 11.63%. Production growth limited to 0.73% in May as Indonesian shipments jump 33%.

Cocoa market volatility continues: July futures swing nearly 19% in historic trading week

July cocoa futures hit $10,898 after 19% rally, then crashed 10%. Analysis reveals 20-year low liquidity, 3.5% demand drop, and West African supply gamble.

Cocoa market watch: Rally faces headwinds despite supply concerns

US cocoa futures hit a three-month high of $10,974 before easing, as improving West African rainfall runs up against persistent crop quality concerns.

Dairy market weekly: Stalemate continues as butter and powder markets seek direction

Weekly VPI: European butter holds at €7,200/mt on rising cream prices while SMP retreats to €2,380/mt, with buyers cautious about second-half trends.

Prices hold firm despite LSGO decline

Prices hold firm despite falling LSGO values as Greenergy suspends UK operations and US grants 163 Small Refinery Exemptions.

Renewable diesel targets and regulatory nucertainty

Potential 4.65B gallon renewable diesel target falls below industry proposals, while EPA delays 2026 mandates and considers 161 small refinery exemptions.

US-China tariff relief reshapes global whey and lactose markets

Latest Vesper Price Index shows European WPC80 at €12,000/mt while US prices hover at €9,249/mt amid temporary China tariff reductions.

Biodiesel market watch week 20: UCO prices under pressure on higher supply to EU

Week 20 biodiesel analysis: UCO prices weaken in China and Europe as softer demand meets rising EU supply, with imports up 16.8% on US import tariffs.

US dairy market weekly: Cheese prices surge amid trade deal developments

Discover how the new US-China trade agreement is driving a $0.12/lb cheese price rally and creating export opportunities for US dairy producers in our latest ma

European cheese market update: Buyers find no bargains as demand surges

European cheese consumption surges 16.91% YOY, driving unexpected price increases despite peak production. Get the latest on cheddar, gouda, emmental and mozzar

Sugar market analysis: Short-term volatility amidst long-term pressure

Vesper's latest sugar market analysis reveals short-term price support from Brazil's 53% production drop, while long-term bearish pressure looms from India and

Oceanian prices exceed expectations on the GDT

Latest Vesper market report reveals Oceania WMP jumped $365/mt at GDT while European butter falls to €7,100/mt amid peak milk production. Discover critical EU-U

US-China trade tensions create pricing arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets

Latest Vesper Price Index reveals significant arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets with EU WPC80 prices 33% higher than US. Discover how shifting tra

Global oils & fats market faces headwinds amid economic contraction and supply chain shifts

Explore Week 19's oils & fats market trends: US economy contracts 0.3%, Brent crude falls to $60.23, Malaysian palm stocks rise 15% while Indonesian exports dro

US-China tariffs disrupt global dairy market: whey markets see 38% price gap

Latest dairy market intelligence reveals significant price divergence as US-China tariffs disrupt global whey supply chains. See how production growth across US

CBOT Soybean Oil Reclaims Premium Over BMD Crude Palm Oil After Prolonged Discount

Soybean oil has moved back above palm oil after a prolonged discount, on shifts in supply patterns, currencies and trade signals across both of these markets.

US dairy markets hold steady amid global economic turbulence, tariff negotiations critical for export outlook

Discover how US dairy markets remain stable amid economic turbulence, with February production trends and 90-day tariff negotiations reshaping export dynamics.

Biodiesel markets react to Trump's tariff pause

Biodiesel markets rebound as Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days while escalating the China trade war to 125%, leaving traders to price fresh uncertainty.

Global dairy market shifts as US-China tariffs reshape whey trade flows

China's 104% tariffs on US whey products are reshaping global dairy trade flows, pushing Chinese buyers toward European suppliers instead.

Global vegetable oil markets disrupted by Trump's 10-50% tariff policy: Palm, Soy, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Oil impacts

Trump's 10 to 50% tariffs are rippling through global vegetable oil markets. What palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil buyers need to know right now.

Dairy market turbulence: Navigating uncertainty in global Butter, SMP, and WMP markets

New US import tariffs have triggered market-wide dairy disruption. Where butter, SMP and WMP prices now stand, and how far the regional gaps have opened.

US Cocoa tariffs shake global markets: supply squeeze meets trade tensions

New US tariffs of up to 21% on cocoa imports collide with a 40% drop in Ivory Coast production, sending futures tumbling from $9,492 to $7,800.

Global biodiesel markets brace for impact as Trump imposes sweeping tariffs

New Trump tariffs of up to 54% on China trigger 44% retaliatory tax on US soybeans while threatening 2.5MMT of UCO imports.

Global dairy markets face perfect storm: US tariffs, FMD, and supply imbalances

New US tariffs, China's retaliation and foot-and-mouth cases in Europe are converging to reshape global dairy trade patterns and regional supply balances.

Biodiesel markets shaken by Trump's new tariff policies

President Trump's economic emergency declaration introduces tariffs up to 54% on biodiesel imports, threatening Chinese UCO supply chains while creating opportu

Biodiesel market sees positive shift as prices rise and feedstock costs decline

The biodiesel market sees renewed optimism in March 2025, with rising prices, higher liquidity, and improved margins as waste feedstock costs decline.

Butter finds buyers while powder markets struggle

Latest dairy market analysis shows European butter selling rapidly despite price adjustments, while SMP and WMP markets struggle with weak global demand.

Whey protein markets: diverging paths between concentrates and sweet whey powder

Latest whey market analysis reveals supply constraints driving WPC80 and WPI prices, while sweet whey powder buyers remain hesitant ahead of Q2.

US dairy market update: FMD concerns, cheese prices fall amid production shifts

Latest US dairy market analysis shows declining cheese prices despite regional production growth, while FMD crosses borders in Europe.

RK Singhal says CPO should decrease by $50/mt to attract Indian demand

Palm oil trading volumes stay subdued as prices remain uncompetitive, with Malaysian exports down 7.5% in early March. Vesper forecasts CPO at $1,000/mt.

Coconut oil prices surge amid supply constraints and rising global demand

Coconut oil prices surge to $2,306/mt as Philippine copra shortages meet record US/European demand. January exports reach 140K mt high.

Canola Market Faces Pressure: MATIF Rapeseed and ICE Canola Prices Tumble Amid China's Tariff Implementation

MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola prices tumble as China imposes 100% tariff on Canadian canola products. European markets brace for influx while Australia raises p

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

European cheese markets show more activity amid seasonal milk flush

European cheese markets shift as mozzarella production rises and milk intake increases. Get the latest insights from Vesper.

Inside the Cocoa market: preventing a drop in demand amidst volatility

Discover key cocoa market trends, from supply shifts in Ivory Coast to changing chocolate demand and price volatility. Get insights for 2025.

Biodiesel market update: prices decline amid increased Asian supply

Week 8 biodiesel update: Prices drop as Asian imports impact demand. Stay informed on feedstock trends and biofuel policy shifts.

Vegetable oils market analysis – week 8: palm oil prices drop amid lower Indian imports

Palm oil prices drop as India’s imports hit a 14-year low, while Indonesia’s exports surge. Get the latest market insights.

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Biodiesel – market reacts

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese biodiesel, cutting exports to record lows and reshaping global trade. Explore the market impact.

Palm Oil market surges as stocks fall short of expectations

Palm oil prices surge as Malaysian production and stocks fall below expectations, while Indonesian exports drop sharply. Explore the market impact.

Egg Prices Increase Amid Avian Influenza Crisis: What You Need to Know

Egg prices are skyrocketing as Avian Influenza disrupts global supply chains. Discover to what extent egg shortages are worsening.

Key Drivers Behind the Rise in European White Sugar Prices and What to Expect in 2025

European white sugar prices have risen since October 2024 on supply constraints, adverse weather and strong global demand. What to expect through 2025.

The Global Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the Dairy Market

Explore the impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the global dairy market, from price shifts and buyer preferences to trade bans.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

How the Dairy Market is Reacting to Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Germany: Impact on Butter, SMP, and WMP Exports and Prices

Explore how foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Germany is disrupting the dairy market. Get insights on the impact on butter, SMP, and WMP prices

Indonesian Bio Blenders Likely to Opt for Penalties Over Blending, RKS Assumes

Vesper's machine-learning model predicts a steady decline in the BMD benchmark through 2025, with the analytical team and market sentiment both in agreement.

Vesper News: Global Oilseed Market Insights

Brazil's CONAB has nudged its soybean production forecast up to 166.21 million tonnes from 166.14 mmt, one of several shifts across the global oilseed market.

Whey Protein Prices Remain High: Market Adjustments and Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical uncertainty and shifting market dynamics impacting the whey protein market. Get insights on the 2025 outlook and price trends.

Butter Market Faces Uncertainty: Price Declines and Bumpy Road Ahead

Explore the uncertainty in the butter market, with expected volatility ahead. Stay informed on what is shaping the 2025 outlook

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

Heavy Rains and B40 Mandate Drive Palm Oil Prices Higher, RKS Insights Is Bullish

Explore why palm oil prices are rising, with insights on the B40 policy and RKS market outlook. Stay ahead with the latest palm oil trends.

Biodiesel Market Update: Key Trends Driving Price Dynamics

Biodiesel prices have dropped sharply on softer demand and a steep decline in used cooking oil values. The key trends now shaping pricing across regions.

European Sugar Market Update: Is This the Optimal Buying Window for European Buyers?

The JRC MARS bulletin revised the EU27 sugar beet yield forecast up to 75.4 tonnes per hectare, above September's 74.7 and the five-year average of 73.2.

3 Key Drivers Behind Rising Palm Oil Prices

Palm oil prices surge as Malaysian supply tightens and demand rises, boosted by bullish market sentiment from the IPOC event.

4 Key Factors Driving Biodiesel Prices to New Highs

Discover the top 4 factors driving biodiesel prices to new highs, from increased demand and German regulations to supply disruptions.

U.S. Clean Fuels Tax Credit (45Z) Guidance Looms, Poised to Shake Up Vegetable Oil and Biofuel Markets

Explore the 45Z tax credit's impact on biofuels, U.S.-sourced feedstocks, and global vegetable oil trade as industry awaits new guidance.

Sucrose Levels Are Falling Below the 5-Year Average in Parts of Europe Due to Unfavorable Weather Patterns

Heavy rainfall and humidity in Germany and France are causing sucrose levels in sugar beets to fall below the 5-year average.

Canadian Canola Shipments Rise Amid Chinese Buyers' Uncertainty Over Antidumping Investigation

Canadian canola shipments surge amid Chinese antidumping concerns, as MATIF rapeseed prices rise and ICE Canola holds steady. Explore the market impact.

Palm Oil and Palm Olein Prices in India Have Reached Their Peak – According to RKS Insights

India's import duties on edible oils aim to boost domestic production, with a 20% customs duty on crude oils like palm, and soybean.

Cheese Market Update: Prices Fall as Milk Supply Concerns Ease

Cheese prices drop as milk supply stabilizes in Europe and North America. Market outlook predicts price stabilization in early 2025

Sugar Prices Remain Elevated as CS Brazil Falls Short: Discover How Future Forecasts Impact the Market

CS Brazil’s sugar production drops 16.21% YoY in September on unfavorable weather and lower cane crush, keeping global sugar prices elevated.

POME Market Update: Price Movements and Regulatory Changes

The latest insights on BMD Crude Palm Oil prices, Malaysia's palm oil stocks, and rising POME prices and Indonesia's new export regulations.

Upward Pressure for Global Lactose Prices

Global lactose prices rise due to tightening supply and strong demand, with the EU and US Vesper Price Indices reflecting increased costs.

How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping the Biodiesel and Feedstock Markets

Explore the latest trends in the EU biodiesel and feedstock markets, influenced by fluctuations in LSGO prices amid Middle East tensions.

Palm Oil Hits Yearly High Amid Surging Brent Crude Prices

Palm oil prices hit a yearly high, climbing above 4,300 MYR per metric ton, as Brent crude oil surges 12.1% on Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Lower Sugar Production Forecasts: Where Will Q1 2025 Supply Come From?

Brazil’s recent drought and fires have reduced sugar production estimates for the 2024/25 season to 39 MMT, down from 40 MMT.

Wild Price Swings and Uncertainty within Gouda and Butter markets

Dairy volatility is on full display, with butter and gouda swinging hard around the first of October as very high offers gave way to very low ones.

EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark Rises Week-Over-Week

Vesper's EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah crude palm oil benchmark rose week over week, with BMD CPO November futures climbing to MYR 4,074/mt from MYR 3,766/mt.

Brazil's Sugar Industry Faces Pressure from Fire Outbreaks and Dry Conditions, Impacting Production and Prices

Brazil's sugar production faces challenges as fires and dry conditions hit the Center-South region, lowering output and driving up prices.

India's Import Duty Hike: Impact on Global Vegetable Oil Prices

India raises import duties on edible oils, impacting palm oil and global vegetable oil prices. Download our market highlights for free.

European Butter Prices Hit Record Highs – What Do Butter Price Forecasts Say?

European butter prices reach an all-time high of €8000/mt. Discover key factors driving this rise and what butter price forecasts predict.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Cheese Market Stabilizes After Surge: What Buyers Need to Know About Price Trends and Forecasts

Discover current price trends for Cheese - After a rapid surge, cheese prices have stabilized, raising questions about sustainability.

Rising Global Sugar Deficit Forecasted

Discover how recent policy shifts in India and severe fires in Brazil are impacting sugar supply - forecasted deficit of 3.58 MMT for 2024/25.

BMD Palm Maintains Tight Spread with CBOT Soy Oil Amid Historically Low June and July (est. by Vesper) Indonesia Stocks

Explore how BMD palm oil prices are maintaining a tight spread with CBOT soybean oil amid supply and demand shifts in Indonesia.

Sugar Market Faces Uncertainty Amid Brazilian Drought and Fires: Brazilian Price Forecasts Signal Continued Volatility

The Brazilian sugar market faces uncertainty as fires and prolonged drought hit key sugarcane regions, with price forecasts pointing to continued volatility.

Record High Cream Prices Propel European Butter Market to New Heights: Price Forecast Indicates Further Increases

European cream prices have hit record highs, breaking through €10,000/mt and pushing butter prices to skyrocket again across the dairy sector.

Animal Fats Prices Fail to Grow with Veg Oil Prices Due to Pressure from Low Demand

Vegetable oil prices are rising on higher Brent crude, US weather risk and Indonesian biofuel mandates, while animal fats stay flat on weak demand.

Olive Oil Price Forecasts: Market Shifts as Stocks Deplete in Italy and Spain

Italian olive oil stocks are running low, prompting increased imports from Spain to meet demand. Discover the impact on olive oil prices.

Is the Global Sugar Market on the Brink Amid Mounting Uncertainties?

Explore the latest insights on the global sugar market's volatility amid Brazil's drought and policy uncertainties in India.

Milk Prices Expected to Stay High Due to Worldwide Supply Constraints

Discover how rising temperatures, bluetongue disease, and a reduced dairy herd are driving milk shortages and price increases.

Will CBOT Soybean Oil's Bearish Price Trends Persist Following WASDE's Bearish Soy Update?

Uncover the reasons behind the CBOT soybean oil price drop and how supply, farmer actions, and market sentiment could impact future prices.

European Cheese Market Sees Price Increases and Potential Tight Supply in Q4 2024 according to Price Forecasts

Discover the latest trends in the European cheese market as Gouda, Emmental, Mozzarella, and Cheddar Curd experience significant price hikes.

How will India’s and Brazil’s Sugar Production Projections Impact Global Prices?

Learn how India’s and Brazil’s sugar production forecasts may impact global prices, and explore Vesper’s price forecast predictions.

Weather Drives Volatility in CBOT Soybean Prices: Discover Vesper's AI-Driven Price Forecasts for the Next Six Months

Discover how weather and geopolitical events are impacting CBOT soybean prices, and learn what Vesper's price forecasts are predicting.

More Attention to Sustainable Aviation Fuel as EU Excludes It from Antidumping Duties

Discover how the European Commission's latest anti-dumping measures impact biodiesel markets and why SAF is gaining strategic importance.

GDT Auction Sees Modest Increase in Price Index, Driven by Fats and Cheddar

The latest GDT auction shows a modest 0.4% increase in the price index, driven by milk fats and cheddar, while milk powders declined.

Trump Sends CBOT Beans to Multiyear Lows?

Soybean prices in Chicago and Brazil hit multiyear lows despite the USDA lowering its projections for soybean production and ending stocks.

Early signs of trouble ahead in the global sugar market

The sugar market sees a price rise due to concerns over CS Brazil's 24/25 sugar output potentially falling short from early drought.

GDT Event Sees Significant Price Declines Across Dairy Products

The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event saw substantial price drops across dairy products, including butter, SMP, and WMP, on stronger seasonal supply.

Soybean market update: fluctuating weather conditions and robust supply impact prices

Soybean Oil prices fall on CBOT and the Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index due to fluctuating U.S. weather conditions and strong LATAM supply.

Butter Market Update: Tight Supply and Steady Demand Keep Prices High

The EU Vesper Price Index for butter stands at €6,600/mt EXW as of June 19, 2024, with Oceania at €6,797 and the US at €6,466. The drivers behind the levels.

Weather shifts ahead: La Niña’s impact on the global sugar market in 2024

La Niña is now more than 80% likely in the second half of 2024, bringing weather shifts that could cut Central-South Brazil rainfall and hit sugar output.

European biodiesel prices are strengthening due to strong LSGO prices

Rising LSGO demand, geopolitical tensions, and potential Dutch HBE ticket policy changes are driving up European biodiesel prices, Vesper reports.

Biodiesel Prices Drop from Highs Amid LSGO Decline

Despite a recent decline, biodiesel values remain elevated, influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and OPEC+'s production decisions.

Valorisation of butter and SMP catches up with cheese in European market

Butter and SMP valorisation has caught up with cheese in Europe, as tight supplies, lower production and firm demand lift prices in the EU, US and New Zealand.

Accelerated Sugarcane Milling in Brazil and Its Global Impact

Discover how dry weather has accelerated sugarcane milling in Central-South Brazil, boosting sugar production and impacting global markets.

Rapeseed complex is stronger w-o-w on weather worries

Discover how adverse weather conditions in key regions are driving up rapeseed and canola prices. Explore the latest price increases here.

Dairy Market: European liquids prices are through the roof, with cream reaching extremely high

Discover the latest trends in the European dairy market. Declining milk production and more buyers influencing butter, SMP, and WMP prices.

Global Sugar Market: Futures Slide as Supply Pressures Ease

Discover the latest trends in the raw sugar market, which saw a 4.6% decrease, now trading at 18.6 cents per pound, the lowest since November '22.

Palm Oil Update: Higher Freight Rates and Improved Production

Stay informed with the latest in the palm oil market. Explore the impact of increased freight rates and enhanced production on the industry.

Biodiesels and feedstock up, EU biofuel processing margins still tight

The latest in EU biodiesel dynamics: Prices firm amid rising feedstock costs and tight margins, with transport challenges affecting market

Global Palm Oil Prices Slide Amidst Recovering Production and Export Challenges

Explore the decline in global palm oil prices due to increased Malaysian production and reduced exports, impacting stock levels.

Biodiesel Market Update: Feed Prices are Firm, but the Trading Activity is Limited

Biodiesel market update: EU biodiesel prices drop amidst increasing Argentine SME imports, while feedstock price remain stable.

Dairy Market Update: Fluctuations in Liquid Milk Prices

Understand the trends affecting raw milk, cream, SMC, and whey concentrate prices, and discover the implications of regional price variations

Prices plunge in the sugar market, as supply concern fades

Sugar prices fell sharply last week, returning to January 2023 levels as supply concerns. Get detailed insights on price changes here.

Prices for Biodiesel Fall due to High Crude Oil Supply

Understand the impact of high crude oil supplies, gasoil market shifts, and feedstock price declines on biodiesel markets.

High Global Demand Tightens Butter Market, with Cream Prices Hitting Yearly High

Discover the European butter market's challenges: supply shortages, record-high cream prices, and rising global demand tightening the market.

Biodiesel and Feedstock Experience a Downward Trend, but Freight Costs are Still of Concern

Explore the latest trends in the biodiesel and feedstock market, with significant reductions recorded in our pricing index.

Increase in West-EU Biodiesel Prices Following New Legislations and Import Duties

Explore the significant increase in West-EU biodiesel prices driven by new German legislation and anticipated import duties.

The 24/25 CS Brazilian sugar cane crop season off to a robust start

Discover the latest updates on Brazil's sugar cane crop season. Despite weather challenges, production levels surged in March.

Germany allows HVO100 and B10 sales at gas stations, driving ARA biodiesels up

RME, UCOME, FAME 0, and HVO (UCO) prices have all soared in West-EU markets in response to Germany's B10 and HVO100 pump sales policy change.

Impact of O.N.I.L. volumes on global SMP market

Algeria's O.N.I.L has tendered for SMP and WMP delivery between June and September. How the volumes are landing on an already bearish global SMP market.

Rising EU Biodiesel Prices: Insights from the Latest Report

Explore the surge in Vesper West-EU Price Index for RME, UCOME, and FAME 0, and understand the drivers behind this increase.

Diverging production outputs from global sugar markets

Dubai & Datagro Conferences reveal a lower cane availability in CS Brazil, while India's pivotal export changes affect global sugar prices.

Crude palm oil prices inch up on the MPOB report

Discover the impact of production drops, export declines, and stock reductions on crude palm oil prices according to the latest MPOB report.

Waiting for the Sugar Market to be Bullish in 2024

Sugar prices fell further after the March/24 contract expired with a 1.3 million tonne physical delivery of Brazilian sugar, unusually large off-season.

The Relationship between Biodiesel Prices Increases and Used Cooking Oil

Discover the latest dynamics in the EU biodiesel market with a notable uptick in prices across RME, UCOME, and FAME0 indices.

EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025, including Pricing Insights

Stay ahead with our EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025. Get insights into beet cultivation, market trends, and price indices.

Will EU palm oil prices stay at a premium to other vegetable oils?

Discover how the Red Sea crisis and high origin prices impact palm oil prices. Will EU palm oil prices stay at a premium?

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Global sugar prices: a temporary standstill or a prelude to change?

Global sugar prices staged a substantial recovery in January, driven by industrial buying, dry Brazilian weather, and lower 2024/25 output forecasts.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Prices: Latest Updates and Future Projections

Stay updated on palm oil and soybean oil prices, with insights from the latest MPOB report and impact of mineral oil price.

European cheese market: Sentiment changes quickly, but fundamentals do not

Discover European cheese market trends: Despite a clear outlook, positive GDT events and dairy fat price fluctuations bring uncertainty.

Biodiesel prices are now at their lowest levels since June 2023

Biodiesel Prices Plummet: Discover the four reasons behind the decrease in biodiesel prices, now at their lowest levels since June 2023.

Adjusted Indian sugar production forecast for the 23/24 season due to better-than-expected January yields

Check out the latest sugar yields and their effect on India's sugar production forecasts - a narrowing gap in sugar production.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Vegetable oils other than palm have weakened on the Red Sea crisis and bumper soybean supply, while heavy Malaysian rain cut January palm oil output.

Weakened EU biodiesel complex due to sluggish demand and an increase in feedstock prices

The EU biodiesel complex has weakened since the previous report. Check out the latest price for RME, FAME, UCOME, and UCO here.

Weaker European Cheese Market due to Inactivity

Explore the current state of the European cheese market, facing a downturn due to inactivity among buyers and suppliers.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

CBOT soybean oil settled up at $973/mt from $952/mt and soybeans recovered to $411/mt, with traders citing the new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant.

Unexpected Biodiesel Price Decline Amidst LSGO and Vegetable Oil Increase

Explore why RME, UCOME, and FAME biodiesel prices have weakened since the previous report, with input from Vesper's global network of contacts.

Dairy market insights: Price gaps for butter and powder are decreasing among the major producing regions

Explore the latest dairy market update revealing a significant reduction in butter price gaps across major regions (Europe, Oceania, US).

Biodiesel market update: Growing interest to buy, yet making consensus on pricing remains a challenge

The European biodiesel complex has strengthened again on higher LSGO prices and steady buying interest, but buyers and sellers still cannot agree on price.

Vegetable oil market update: Global palm oil and soybean oil prices up on bullish MPOB and neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report

Vegetable oil market update: Discover the impact of increased Brent Crude Oil prices and bullish MPOB and WASDE report on prices

Sugar market trends 2024: Growing Reliance on Center-South Brazil

Sugar market trends 2024: Explore the balance between global sugar stocks, historically low sugar prices and supply and demand uncertainties.

Soybean Oil Market Update: Soybean Oil Prices Weaken on Improved LATAM Weather and Slow Demand

Soybean oil prices weaken as El Niño-driven South American weather improves and demand stays slow. Price shifts, projections and the coming WASDE report.

Dairy market update: GDT and Vesper Price Index confirm steady prices amid seasonal adjustments

Dairy market update: monitor market trends for dairy products like Butter, SMP, WPC80, WPI, and more with our latest Vesper Highlights.

Vesper's Biodiesel Market Insights: Mixed European Biodiesel Prices

Vesper's Biodiesel Market Insights: explore the mixed European Biodiesel Prices in 2024 with Vesper's Market Highlights.

European sunflower oil Market Update

Explore the latest developments in the European sunflower oil market, including price trends and producer responses in Ukraine.

Global palm oil market experiences price decline amidst lower export figures and falling brent crude Oil prices

Discover how decreased exports from Malaysia and falling Brent Crude Oil prices are impacting palm oil and palm kernel oil prices.

European crop faces delays as main producers grapple with flooding and above-average rains

Storms and saturated ground have delayed the North West Europe sugar beet harvest, with France only 50% cut by mid-November against a typical 80%.

Rising cheese prices linked to decreased market liquidity

Thin liquidity and tight liquid milk availability are lifting European cheese prices again, with the latest Vesper Price Index showing gains across grades.

Biodiesel up on stronger LSGO and improved buyers' interest

Explore the latest increase in the European biodiesel complex as prices for RME, UCOME, and FAME 0 experience notable increases.

Gouda quotations pull others up, but will it slide down itself?

Explore the dynamics of Gouda cheese prices and their impact on the market. Understand the implications and the potential shifts in pricing.

Rise in CBOT Soybean Oil prices and the Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index for Crude Soybean Oil

Explore the recent rise in CBOT soybean oil prices, driven by bullish US soybean oil numbers and supply challenges in Brazil.

Whey: availability is the key difference

Explore the evolving landscape of the whey protein market, as WPC80 and WPI prices climb while SWP, Whey Permeate, and Lactose markets stay stable.

Sluggish demand within the European diesel and biodiesel market in Q4

Explore biodiesel trends: RME prices rise, UCO falls, with Vesper's precise pricing data and market Highlights shaping your strategy.

Palm oil market update: global price increases

Get the latest on palm oil prices, MYR factors, and Indonesia's export scene in our comprehensive October 2023 market update. Stay ahead!

Factors contributing to the global decrease in rapeseed oil prices

Discover the latest sentiments in diesel and biodiesel demand with Vesper, and see how economic shifts affect the vegetable oil market.

Third consecutive global sugar deficit in 24/25 forecasted

Datagro forecasts a third consecutive sugar deficit in 2024/25, at 1 million tons, after a 4.36 million ton shortfall in 2023/24. Stock rebuild looks unlikely.

Cheddar prices throughout the EU have dipped below the price for Gouda

Understand the shift in EU Cheddar and Gouda prices with Vesper. Get data-driven insights to adapt your dairy trading strategy.

India extends export restrictions on sugar out of concerns about global sugar availability

Learn about India's extended sugar export restrictions with Vesper. Adapt your trading strategy based on global sugar availability concerns.

The whey market: the drivers behind the significant price jump

Discover what's fueling price surges in the European whey market. Gain insights into liquid whey, whey powders, and export dynamics.

Brazil's sugar boom and the impact of oil prices

Discover the Latest Trends: Sugar Prices on the Rise Due to Brazilian Output Surge and Middle East Conflict Impact on Oil, Hinting at a Potential Bull Market Ah

Palm oil market update: Declining prices for palm oil and palm kernel oil

Explore the latest developments in the palm oil market, including the factors driving declining prices. Discover the impact of Brent Crude oil prices, reduced d

Global sugar prices declined due to drop in Brazilian Real and crude oil prices

Discover why sugar prices have taken a hit, influenced by the weakening Brazilian real and falling crude oil prices. Get insights on Sugar No. 11 and Sugar No.

Biodiesel market sees an increase in RME and rapeseed oil prices

Rising biodiesel demand in Western Europe and drought concerns in Australia push rapeseed oil and MATIF prices higher, despite a smooth Canadian harvest.

Malaysian BMD and European cash palm oil prices move in different directions

Discover the growing palm oil price discrepancy between Europe and Malaysia. The trend was due to several factors: higher export numbers coming from Malaysia, n

Bullish shift within the butter and whey market

Explore the bullish trends in the butter and whey market with Vesper. Get expert analysis to guide your investment decisions.

Global sugar market update: a bittersweet forecast for Q1'24

Get the latest on Q1'24 global sugar forecasts with Vesper. Learn what makes the outlook bittersweet for better investment choices.

Narrow UCOME-RME spread - more appetite for lower CFPP blends

Learn about the narrow UCOME-RME spread and its impact on CFPP blends. Vesper's insights help you adapt your commodity trading strategy.

Cheese Highlights: confusion, confidence, and cracks?

Navigate the complexities of the cheese market with Vesper's highlights. Understand confusion, confidence, and market cracks.

Biodiesel market update: UCOME and FAME 0 prices decline while RME prices rise

Since Vesper's last update a week ago, the European Union's biodiesel landscape has presented contrasting patterns. UCOME (FOB ARA) witnessed a 5% decline, sett

Mixed signals in the Vegetable Oil complex: a snapshot of the latest price trends

The global vegetable oil complex this week has presented us with a patchwork of fluctuations. With some oils such as palm, soybean oil (cash), coconut, and oliv

EU biodiesel is down w-o-w, Vesper hears large purchases of Chinese biodiesel

Learn about the EU biodiesel dip and Chinese market movements with Vesper. Adapt your trading strategy with our timely insights.

Logistical bottleneck keeps sugar prices elevated, as the global market leans on Brazil

Weather-related challenges in Thailand and India strain global raw sugar supplies, increasing reliance on Brazil. Sugar prices remain high due to logistical con

Here’s why the latest WASDE figures for the US soybean forecast 23/24 didn’t satisfy bullish expectations

Recent WASDE report figures for US soybean 2023/24 align with average trade estimates, defying bullish expectations, and leading to lower CBOT soybean oil price

Higher crude palm oil and palm kernel oil prices driven by El Niño weather concerns in Asia

Get the latest insights on export, production, and stock levels as Vesper anticipates a slightly bullish palm oil market amid El Nino weather concerns.

Monsoon woes and production delays: price increase

Understand how monsoon woes and production delays are driving price increases. Vesper offers timely insights for your commodity investments.

The biodiesel complex up

Discover why the biodiesel complex is on the rise with Vesper. Get the insights you need to make informed trading decisions.

Growing concerns about global demand for dairy products

Discover the Growing Concerns in the Dairy Industry: Will Milk Prices Hold Steady at $2350/mt? Uncover the Uncertainty Surrounding Dairy Demand and Commodity Pr

Indian milk production two years behind schedule, although growth is expected to return

Explore India's milk production trends, import shifts, and growth forecasts on Vesper. Get updated stats and global market insights.

China's milk production sees modest growth in 2022-2023

China aimed for 70% dairy self-sufficiency by 2020, reaching 66% by 2022. High milk prices drive growth, but recent drops pose challenges.

High cheese prices among weaker dairy complex: How much longer can the cheese market maintain its current prices?

Stay informed on cheese prices and trends, and navigate fluctuating milk production's impact on valorisation and exports across the dairy complex.

Export bans triggered by droughts in India

India's drought hits Maharashtra's sugarcane production, sparking sugar export ban concerns and rising prices. Get the latest updates from Vesper.

Unfavourable weather conditions in the US and increased exports of palm oil from Malaysia firm prices

Crude palm oil prices rise on Malaysian exports and global factors, but a shift to bearish sentiment looms amidst economic concerns.

Prices firm on Indonesian biodiesel investigations by the EU

Explore the impact of EU investigations on Indonesian biodiesel in this article. European biodiesel prices increase following the launch of an anti-circumventio

Brazilian Real and Crude dips lower sugar prices

The sugar market has been experiencing a series of ups and downs, with prices recently retreating due to the weakening of the Brazilian real and a drop in crude

Palm oil prices decline, despite slightly bullish MPOB reports

While the report initially provided a degree of support to palm oil prices in the previous week, these gains proved to be short-lived. The decline came about du

Limited trading activity characterises the UCOME market amidst rising prices

Explore the UCOME market's nuanced landscape with rising prices and limited trading activity. Uncover the impact of low liquidity and increased UCO prices on UC

Projected Global Shortfall Spurs Surprising Price Decline

Navigate the surprising dynamics of the global sugar industry in the face of projected deficits. Discover how key regions like Brazil, India, EU, Ukraine, and T

Cheese Highlights: just start very high, you can always settle for less

Master the cheese market with Commodity Intelligence - Vesper offers valuable insights into cheese market trends, pricing, and trade dynamics. Make informed dec

Vegetable oils navigate mixed trends amid weather-driven volatility

Explore the dynamic shifts in the vegetable oil market as palm, soybean, and sunflower oils react to diverse influences. Discover the rising trends in rapeseed,

Falling veg oils pressure biodiesel outrights

Discover how falling vegetable oil prices are affecting biodiesel outrights. Vesper gives you the insights to adjust your trading approach.

India's sugar market outlook: Monsoon's crucial role in alleviating production shortages

The sugar market surged with prices up by 38.58% due to tight supplies and disappointing cane yields in India, leading to reduced exports. Monsoon performance a

Cheese Market: Prices crumble as demand weakens

Discover the current state of the cheese market as prices decline and demand weakens. Cheese manufacturers are grappling with busy schedules and seeking outlets

Vegetable oils turn bullish on lower-than-expected US Soybean acreage and stocks

Discover the intriguing turn of events in the vegetable oil market as USDA's report reveals lower-than-expected US soybean acreage and stocks. Explore the impac

Brazil's Impressive Sugar Production Drives Prices Down

Discover why sugar prices have plummeted as Brazil's Center-South region witnesses a surge in production. Learn about the factors contributing to this trend and

Highlights on the global cheese market: The bigger the uncertainty, the bigger the premium

The global cheese market stabilises on balanced supply and demand, with minimal price movement despite Q3 premiums and thin traded volumes.

Highlights on the global sugar market: Prices slump on the outlook of a massive Brazil crop

After five weeks of gains, sugar slumped as CONAB forecast Center-South Brazil production up 4.8% on the year to 38.8 million tonnes for the new crop.

Highlights on the Global Butter and Whey Market: Uncertainty-driven premiums cause more uncertainty

Sellers hold prices steady with ample outlets, while cautious buyers hesitate amid lower consumption risks in Q3 dairy market.

Highlights on the global sugar market: Crop slowdown, export delays, and weather disruptions

Stay updated with Vesper's highlights on global sugar market factors. Learn about crop slowdowns, export delays, and weather impacts.

Highlights on the global cheese market: Uncertainty on the size of the increase

Dairy markets broadly agree Q3 prices should be higher than Q2, but not by how much. Premiums feel too big for buyers and far too small for sellers.

Global Sugar Market Update: Prices Drop Due to Anticipated Large Brazil Harvest

Understand the drop in global sugar prices with Vesper. Learn how Brazil's large anticipated harvest impacts your trading strategy.

Understand future Brazilian sugar production levels with Vesper’s new Sugar/Ethanol parity widget

Get ahead with Vesper's new Sugar/Ethanol parity widget. Forecast future Brazilian sugar production levels for smarter trading.

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Extension of the grain corridor at risk?

Central banks controlling $7 trillion in reserves are buying gold as geopolitical tension forces a rethink, while the Ukraine grain corridor looks at risk.

Identified by Vesper’s Import/Export Widget: Decreasing European palm oil imports

European palm oil use is falling as it loses share to rapeseed and sunflower oil, with sustainability concerns pushing processors toward better-regarded oils.

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Falling food prices go hand in hand with bearishness

Explore recent geopolitical tensions: Taiwan-China military exercises, easing China-Australia trade conflict, and global food price trends.

Highlights on the global cheese market: A buyers’ market with low availability

The global dairy market favours buyers with falling prices amid increased availability, rising inflation, and growing economic uncertainty.

Highlights on the global sugar market: Is the long-term bearish sentiment gone?

Explore with Vesper whether long-term bearish sentiment in the global sugar market has shifted. Make better-informed investment choices.

Increased EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine due to competitive prices

Discover how competitive prices are boosting EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine. Vesper provides insights for your trading adjustments.

Vesper's historical settlement graph indicates higher Brent Crude Oil prices after unexpected OPEC+ cuts

OPEC announced on April 2nd it would cut 1.16 million barrels a day from May to year end, aiming to restore price levels seen in the first months of the year.

Highlights on the Butter and Whey market: Is someone interested in proteins?

Dairy market sees strong supply in Northern Hemisphere, with production increases; demand uncertainty affects price stability.

Highlights on the Global Sugar market: Supply remains tight

Sugar prices rise due to supply concerns in Brazil, India, Thailand, Egypt, and Algeria export bans, plus UAE operational issues.

Highlights on the Cheese market: No pressure, and therefore no trades

The cheese market feels quiet and uncertain. Larger buyers have covered most of Q2 and so have some sellers, leaving little pressure and few trades.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Uncertainty reigns in global markets

Will there be another global financial crisis? The question hanging over markets since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for oils.

Highlights on the Butter and Whey market: What will we do with all these liquids?

The Northern Hemisphere spring flush is under way and keeps pushing milk into the market, with European raw milk spot prices dropping below €0.30/kg.

Highlights on the Global Sugar market: Is El Niño on the way?

Sugar market stability faces weather uncertainties with El Niño prospects in Brazil and India, impacting production outlook.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: SVB collapse causes global uncertainty

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has caused panic in global financial markets, with the Federal Reserve stepping in to prevent a contagious crisis.

Highlights on the global Cheese market: The ‘classic’ stand-off full of hesitancy

Cheese prices climbed fast in February then lost momentum, with hesitation and uncertainty back in global markets and no clear direction for either side.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Droughts and floods ruling the market

China has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, less ambitious than analysts expected, while droughts and floods continue to rule the oils and fats market.

Big differences are starting to occur between European countries

EU28 milk production rose 0.98% year on year, but growth rates differ substantially between individual European countries. Where the gaps are widest.

Highlights on the Butter and Whey market: Volatile fats and weaker proteins

Global butter markets are showing unusual volatility, with hundreds of euros added or taken off the price within hours. The latest numbers look bearish.

Highlights on the Global Sugar market: Brazil is in the picture, again

The Dubai Sugar Conference shows mild bullish sentiment amid global market uncertainties, production speculation, and Brazil's tax changes.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability after a year of war?

With the war in Ukraine past a year, US officials say China is contemplating sending weapons to Russia. What a new player would mean for oils and fats.

Highlights on the global Cheese market: has the urge to buy subsided? Or is it just temporarily quiet?

Buyers covering nearby positions and locking in forward volumes drove a rally, but that demand has passed, leaving both sides of the market reluctant.

Highlights on the Butter and Whey market: Down, up, and then down again

With EU butter down 40%, Oceania SMP down 40% and US SWP down 60% from last year's peak, a rebound was expected. Its timing and strength surprised many.

Highlights on the Global Sugar Market: Stable present, bearish future

Sugar prices held steady after India's mills association cut its production forecast, as strong Thai output is expected to lift exports on last year.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability for now, bears on the horizon

A week on from the Turkey and Syria earthquakes the toll has reached 36,000, the deadliest in modern Turkish history. Oils and fats hold stable for now.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market: What happens in China, doesn’t stay in China

A Chinese balloon over US airspace pushed tensions between the two countries to new highs this week. What that means for a sluggish oils and fats market.

Farm-gate milk prices follow the commodity prices on their way down from record levels

Milk production ran at a deficit in early 2022 on poor weather and high feed, energy and fuel costs. How farm-gate prices followed commodities back down.

Can Europe's maximum refining capacity handle the projected importation of sugar cane?

EU faces 5% drop in sugar production, boosting sugar imports by 24% YoY. Can refineries cope with 2.0 MMT of cane sugar imports?

Highlights on the European cheese market: back to historically ‘average’ price levels.

Two more bearish weeks have pushed European cheese lower, with sellers moving what they can to stop stock ageing and losing value as prices keep falling.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market

Argentina and Brazil are weighing a common South American currency and have begun preparatory work, closing out an eventful first month of 2023.

Highlights on the butter and whey market: prices are falling, but where to?

The bearish tone across butter, SMP, WMP and whey powders is partly lower consumption. Buyers are still there, but sellers have to work harder to find them.

Highlights on the global sugar market: an expected surplus despite uncertainties

The global sugar market outlook stays positive with higher production forecasts for leading producers, despite emerging India and Thailand concerns.

Oils and Fats Highlights: Is the world economy waiting for China?

Europe's labour market is the bright spot amid its economic troubles, with unemployment at record lows despite high inflation and energy prices hitting firms.

Farm-gate milk prices; a driving force behind milk production estimates. A retrospect on European farm-gate milk prices and production, accompanied by 2023 projections.

European farmers maxed out milk production through autumn 2022 on historically high farm-gate prices. A retrospect on that cycle, with 2023 projections.