The US broiler industry is experiencing a growth push, with ready-to-cook production up 2.7% year-over-year during the six-week period ended November 15th, marking the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2023.
According to USDA-AMS, ready-to-cook broiler production in the US was up 2.7% from year-ago levels during the six-week period that ended November 15th. RTC broiler production in the US is projected to be up 2.8% from last year during this Q4 stretch, marking the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2023.
During the same six-week stretch, broiler chick placements posted a 0.8% increase from the same period last year, while the number of eggs placed in incubators was down 0.1% from a year earlier, signaling that expansionary pressures are expected to gradually ebb as 2026 progresses.
Wholesale spot prices for boneless skinless breast meat have been trending mostly sideways since early October, quoted primarily in the low/mid-$1.10s by USDA-AMS. Adjusting for seasonal forces, wholesale demand for b/s breast meat has dipped into negative territory compared to the baseline average but isn’t in any worse shape than during other recent downturns.
The beef complex remains a source of potential outside support in the broiler category. The 90% lean beef trimmings market is more relevant as 90s are a primary raw material source for products like ground hamburger meat that compete directly with b/s breast meat for consumer dollars.
Tyson Foods announced it would be closing its fed cattle slaughter and processing facility in Lexington, NE, and streamlining operations at its Amarillo, TX, plant. These moves could limit downside pressures in fed beef markets, providing indirect support to chicken by maintaining beef price premiums.
LEAP Market Analytics projects a 15%-16% drop in average b/s breast meat prices overall next year, but the beef complex remains a source of potential outside support.
For real-time broiler prices and broiler price forecasts, visit: app.vespertool.com