Those hoping to find bargains in the European cheese markets this May might need to adjust their expectations. Contrary to typical spring patterns, cheese prices have actually increased slightly over the past week, surprising market watchers and procurement specialists alike.

Strong consumption outpaces supply concerns

The cheese sector is demonstrating remarkable resilience, with consumption emerging as the market’s driving force. Recent retail data reveals an impressive 16.91% year-over-year growth in German cheese consumption, with similar trends observed in France and the Netherlands. This robust consumer demand has created a stable market environment despite several potentially destabilizing factors.

“European cheese consumption is currently able to withstand higher production, increased imports, and lower exports – quite the market achievement,” notes our analysis team.

Price trends defy expectations

Manufacturing facilities are operating at or near full capacity this May, with production volumes showing a 1.19% increase compared to last year. However, manufacturers are not facing the inventory pressures that typically drive price concessions during peak production seasons.

In fact, the renewed buyer activity for June and Q3 contracts is enabling producers to slightly increase their asking prices after several quiet trading weeks. This has created notable bid-ask spreads in several cheese varieties, particularly in the Gouda market.

European vs. Global market dynamics

While Europe struggles with exports due to competitive pricing from American producers, internal European consumption is more than compensating. European cheese exports fell by 15.45% year-over-year in February, while EU28 imports increased by 33.89%.

The retail environment tells an equally interesting story, with average cheese prices reaching €10.14/kg – representing a 7.99% increase compared to February last year. This raises important questions about price elasticity for cheese products and potential shifts in purchasing patterns between retail and food service channels.

What’s next for European cheese markets?

Market indicators suggest a generally balanced outlook for most cheese varieties, though with notable nuances across different types:

  • Cheddar markets remain under pressure due to strong production volumes from Ireland and the UK
  • Emmental continues to command significant premiums over other varieties
  • Gouda prices show potential for modest increases as Q3 purchasing begins
  • Mozzarella markets display the widest price ranges among major varieties

For the complete analysis including detailed price forecasts and regional comparison data, access the full Vesper Cheese Market Analysis on our platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1935