March 11, 2025 – The global canola and rapeseed markets experienced significant downward pressure in Week 11, with prices dropping substantially across major exchanges. This decline comes amid new trade restrictions that are reshaping market dynamics.

Price Movement

MATIF rapeseed futures fell dramatically to €482 per metric tonne, representing a steep decline from €527 per metric tonne recorded in the same period last week. This €45 drop highlights bearish sentiment in European oilseed markets.

Similarly, ICE Canola futures in Canada showed comparable weakness, plummeting to CAD 605 per metric tonne from CAD 646 per metric tonne in the previous week.

China’s Tariff Impact

A major factor driving market sentiment is China’s recent implementation of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while notably excluding seeds from these new trade restrictions. Market analysts are closely monitoring the implications of this policy decision.

While China has traditionally been a crucial destination for Canadian canola meal and seeds, its importance as a destination for canola oil has been relatively lower. However, industry experts note that with existing US tariffs already limiting export options, China had represented a potential alternative market for Canadian canola oil—a possibility now effectively eliminated by the new tariff structure. Add to this a 25% tariff by the US on Canadian goods (for some of them will come into force only on the 2nd of April).

European Market Concerns

European market participants have expressed growing concern that Canadian canola and canola products may now be redirected toward EU markets in increasing volumes. This potential influx of more competitively priced Canadian supply could put additional pressure on prices.

Australian Production Forecast

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has revised its 2024/25 Australian canola production forecast upward to 5.9 million tonnes, an increase from its previous estimate of 5.6 million tonnes.

Looking further ahead, ABARES projects Australian canola production to reach 6 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season. Market observers note that Australian canola’s predominantly non-GMO status gives it specific advantages in certain import markets with restrictions on genetically modified crops.

Market Outlook

As global oilseed markets adjust to these evolving trade patterns and production forecasts, participants throughout the supply chain are reassessing their positions. The combination of trade restrictions, changing production outlooks, and price volatility suggests continued uncertainty in the canola and rapeseed markets in the coming weeks.

Industry stakeholders are advised to monitor developments closely, particularly regarding potential shifts in traditional trade flows and the impact of increased supply availability in specific regions.

For a comprehensive analysis and detailed insights on the oils and fats markets, please refer to our full weekly report here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1778?commodity=vegetable-oil