While weakness pervades almost all dairy markets worldwide, whey protein markets are bucking the trend with firm fundamentals and tightening supply. The contrast is stark: milk protein markets face pressure, but whey proteins are holding strong as Q4 volumes become increasingly scarce.

The primary driver remains exceptional demand for whey proteins, which continue to see growing consumption across demographics. With per capita consumption not yet at peak levels in many Western countries, emerging markets still have significant room for dietary adoption. Until consumer product prices increase substantially, demand shows no signs of softening; end consumers aren’t yet feeling the impact in their wallets.

WPC80 supply situation intensifies

European WPC80 prices are holding steady just above the €12,000/mt mark, with Western Europe slightly higher than Eastern Europe. Several producers have already sold their Q4 volumes and are preparing for Q1 sales, leaving limited spot availability from select manufacturers and traders.

The US Vesper Price Index for WPC80 instant increased to €11,000 | $12,786/mt EXW, while the EU index rose to €12,200 | $14,181/mt EXW.

Many buyers anticipated that broader dairy market weakness would impact WPC80 prices, but this hasn’t materialized. Those who delayed Q4 purchases expecting lower prices now face limited supply. The situation is particularly acute in the US, where buyers are already securing Q1 volumes out of concern over availability, further supporting prices.

WPI markets turn increasingly tight

The supply situation is even more pronounced for whey protein isolate. European markets are tightening considerably, with spot offers becoming difficult to find as most manufacturers have sold Q4 volumes. The EU Vesper Price Index for WPI instant increased to €19,600 | $22,782/mt EXW.

US prices have now exceeded European levels, reaching €19,914 | $23,148/mt EXW. The protein consumption trend is more pronounced in the US market, pushing buyers to purchase earlier, in larger volumes, and at higher prices than originally planned.

Sweet whey powder holds steady

Sweet whey powder markets continue trading within established ranges. The EU Vesper Price Index for SWP food grade increased to €1,050 | $1,220/mt EXW, while US prices decreased slightly to €1,100 | $1,278/mt EXW.

Despite strong milk and cheese supply in both Europe and the United States, exceptional WPC demand is keeping SWP supply constrained as production favors higher-value whey protein concentrate. Export demand remains strong for US whey, while European whey powder faces slightly softer international interest.

Market outlook

The outlook for WPC80 is becoming more bullish as available offers shrink. With some buyers still seeking Q4 volumes, prices are expected to remain above €12,000/mt and could move higher if export demand strengthens.

For WPI, the trajectory points upward. Current fundamentals show very thin supply while buyers worldwide still require volumes, typically a recipe for higher prices.

Sweet whey powder markets are expected to trade within current ranges for the coming months, as supply and demand remain balanced around present price levels. Significant export demand would be needed to push prices materially higher.

This article is part of our bi-weekly whey market analysis. For the full whey analysis visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2342