The US broiler industry faces limited production growth potential as breeder inventories continue to contract. The nation’s broiler-type hatchery supply flock dropped to 60.2 million hens as of August 1st, down 2.3% from the prior-year total of 61.6 million hens.
Cumulative pullet chick placements from January through July are running only 1.7% ahead of 2024 levels, with widespread reports of elevated mortality affecting the supply chain. Actual breeder inventories are estimated to be down 3.5 to 4.0 million birds from what prior placements would suggest.
Younger flocks boost productivity but growth remains limited
The broiler-type breeder flock is skewing younger than normal, driving productivity gains. The average number of broiler chicks hatched per layer increased 3.4% year-over-year in July, with cumulative hatchings per layer running 2.8% ahead of 2024.
While these productivity improvements have offset the breeder deficit, head count increases remain in the 0.5% to 1.0% range. Ready-to-cook output growth is capped at around 1.5% both this year and next.
Cold storage levels support supply constraint narrative
Total cold storage holdings of broiler meat reached 767 million pounds as of July 31st, up 2.6% from last year but below the 5-year average of 798 million pounds. Frozen wing stocks increased to 52.4 million pounds, up 9.8% year-over-year but still short of the 5-year average of 57.1 million pounds.
The wing market experienced strength in recent weeks but has begun to level off earlier than typical seasonal patterns. USDA quotes have remained stable around $1.72 to $1.73 per pound, though market observers note a softer tone recently.
The combination of constrained production growth and below-average inventory levels reduces the likelihood of supply overruns and corresponding market disruptions.
This article is part of a broader market analysis. For the full analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2225