Market stabilizes as buyers and sellers reach pricing standoff ahead of holiday season

June 11, 2025 – European cheese markets are experiencing a notable shift toward stability after several weeks of heightened Q3 trading activity, according to the latest Vesper market analysis. The current market dynamic reflects a classic standoff between sellers seeking premiums and buyers resistant to higher pricing, resulting in reduced trade volumes across major cheese categories.

Market overview: The premium standoff

The European cheese market has entered what analysts describe as a “premium standoff,” where sellers are demanding higher prices for Q3 volumes while buyers remain reluctant to pay above current spot rates. This dynamic has led to decreased trading activity and more stable price movements across both specialty and commodity cheese segments.

“We’re seeing a typical mid-year market pattern where trading activity naturally slows as we approach the summer holiday period,” noted market analysts. “However, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, particularly for certain specialty varieties.”

Key market movements

Cheddar markets show mixed signals

European cheddar markets demonstrated the week’s volatility, with the Vesper Price Index reaching €4,650 per metric ton. While initial buyer interest drove prices higher, this momentum quickly dissipated as the week progressed. High stock levels across the UK, Ireland, and Poland continue to maintain strong availability throughout the region.

The ongoing strength of US cheddar exports, driven by competitive pricing in Asian markets, continues to impact European export opportunities, creating interesting dynamics in global trade flows.

Emmental maintains premium position

Emmental markets showed resilience, holding steady at €5,100 per metric ton, supported by consistent demand for Q3 deliveries. Limited production capacity and strong consumption patterns continue to underpin this segment’s stability.

Gouda and mozzarella markets stabilize

Both Gouda and Mozzarella markets have settled into stable trading ranges after recent volatility. Gouda prices held at €4,350 per metric ton, while Mozzarella maintained €4,300 per metric ton in European markets. The convergence of US and European Mozzarella pricing has been particularly notable, with the traditional discount narrowing significantly.

Looking ahead: Summer market dynamics

As European markets prepare for the traditional summer slowdown, several factors are shaping the outlook:

  • Seasonal patterns: Holiday periods typically bring reduced trading activity
  • Production cycles: Ongoing milk production strength continues to support supply
  • Currency impacts: Euro strength against the US Dollar may influence export competitiveness
  • Demand patterns: Q4 consumption forecasts suggest continued underlying strength

Access the full Cheese market analysis for week 24 here on the Vesper platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2005