July 2, 2025 – Market Analysis

The cocoa market has experienced a dramatic shift over the past two weeks, with futures prices tumbling following positive supply updates from West Africa. However, mounting weather concerns across key growing regions are keeping traders on edge as the market navigates between improved supply prospects and potential crop risks.

Sharp price decline follows supply optimism

New York cocoa futures have dropped from $10,259 to $9,000, while London futures fell from £6,837 to £5,733 in recent trading sessions. The catalyst behind this selloff was Ghana’s announcement of an 8.3% increase in its 2025/26 cocoa crop forecast, projecting 650,000 MT compared to 600,000 MT in the previous season.

This upward revision has provided much-needed relief to a market that has been grappling with supply concerns throughout 2024. The news coincided with stronger cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire, further supporting the more optimistic supply narrative.

Côte d’Ivoire shows recovery signs

Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports have reached 1.680 million metric tons by June 22, marking a 5.7% increase compared to the same period last season. Weekly arrivals have also recovered momentum, with 19,000 MT arriving in the past week versus 16,000 MT in the previous year.

The world’s largest cocoa producer is also pushing forward with ambitious processing expansion plans, aiming to increase local cocoa processing to 50% of production within two years, up from the current 42%.

Weather concerns cast shadow over optimism

Despite the positive supply updates, rainfall patterns across West Africa are raising concerns among market participants. Coastal areas in southwest Côte d’Ivoire and parts of Ghana are experiencing particularly heavy precipitation, with some regions recording rainfall levels comparable to 2023, when excessive rains triggered significant crop damage.

In Ghana, graded and sealed cocoa purchases have reached approximately 589,000 MT by June 5, representing a substantial 42% increase compared to the same period last year. However, elevated rainfall across the country is keeping market watchers vigilant for potential disease outbreaks and logistical disruptions.

Technical outlook points to continued pressure

From a technical perspective, both major cocoa futures markets are showing signs of continued weakness. London prices remain well below key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest further downside pressure may be building.

The spread between ICE EU and ICE US settlements has widened to -£819, highlighting growing divergence in market pressures across the two major trading centers.

Market implications and forward look

The current market dynamics present a complex picture for cocoa traders and industry participants. While improved supply forecasts from Ghana and stronger arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire have eased immediate tightness concerns, the weather situation remains a critical wildcard.

Industry experts suggest that if rainfall moderates in early July, prices could continue their downward trajectory in line with technical trends. However, any emergence of crop diseases like Black Pod or logistical strain could quickly shift market sentiment and provide renewed price support.

With demand signals remaining muted and grind activity subdued, weather developments are likely to be the primary market driver in the coming weeks.

This analysis provides an overview of current cocoa market conditions. For detailed technical analysis, price forecasts, and comprehensive supply chain intelligence, access Vesper’s complete market research platform.

Key market data:

  • ICE EU (London): £5,733 (▼ 5% WoW)
  • ICE US (New York): $9,000 (▼ 1% WoW)
  • Ghana 2025/26 forecast: 650,000 MT (+8.3%)
  • Côte d’Ivoire arrivals: 1.680 MMT (+5.7% YoY)

Stay ahead of cocoa market movements with Vesper’s real-time analysis and forecasting tools. Access the full week 27 market analysis on the Vesper platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2062