The global whey protein market faces an unprecedented supply crisis as US manufacturers struggle to meet surging domestic demand, forcing international buyers to compete for limited European supplies and pushing prices to record levels.
US whey protein concentrate (WPC80) and whey protein isolate (WPI) have become essentially unavailable for new buyers seeking significant volumes, with producers having already sold forward well into 2026. The shortage has sent WPI prices to $11/lb ($24,250/mt) – levels never seen before in the market.
The supply crunch stems from a fundamental shift in US demand patterns. Approximately 12% of the US population now uses GLP-1 medications, and as whey proteins are commonly prescribed alongside these treatments, domestic consumption has reached record levels. Manufacturers are ramping up production wherever possible but cannot keep pace with demand.
“Buyers need it now, and sellers have already sold forward well into the new year, creating a shortage,” according to Vesper’s latest market analysis.
The tight US market has triggered a global scramble for alternative supplies. Chinese buyers who traditionally sourced WPI from the US have shifted to European suppliers, while European buyers previously reliant on US volumes are also seeking domestic alternatives. This surge in demand is rapidly tightening European markets, where producers lack emergency stocks to buffer the increased buying activity.
European WPC80 prices currently stand at €12,500/mt ($14,473/mt) EXW, with sellers already offering Q1 2026 volumes closer to €13,000/mt as trading activity picks up. European WPI remains at €20,500/mt ($23,736/mt) EXW, though upward pressure continues to build.
The shortage contrasts sharply with other whey products. Sweet whey powder (SWP) production continues at steady rates, supported by strong cheese manufacturing across major producing regions. European SWP prices hold at €1,070/mt EXW for food grade, while US prices decreased to $1,477/mt EXW.
Whey permeate availability remains good in both regions, as high WPC80 and WPI production generates steady permeate streams. European permeate prices decreased slightly to €750/mt EXW, while US prices increased to $595/mt EXW for food grade applications.
The market outlook for WPC80 and WPI remains tight through Q4 2025 and into 2026. Prices are expected to continue climbing in Q1 as producers leverage their position. However, questions remain about consumer price elasticity – the industry has not previously tested how much of these price increases can be passed through to end consumers.
Lactose markets show more mixed signals. European producers face a wide price spread, with some aiming for €1,200/mt or higher after selling forward successfully, while others struggle to move Q1 volumes as competitive US exports pressure European pricing. US lactose benefits from improved competitiveness in export markets and is moving up slowly from €951/mt EXW.
For the full whey market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2461