Coffee futures ended the week at 393.15 US cents per pound for the March contract, marking a 6.45-cent increase from the previous Monday. The market tested highs of 398 and 396 cents on Wednesday and Thursday before pulling back, staying within striking distance of the $4 per pound level.
The week’s trading was dominated by developments in the US Supreme Court’s review of the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Three conservative justices on the nine-judge panel expressed skepticism during hearings, leading market participants to anticipate a potential reversal of tariffs.
This legal uncertainty creates a complex situation for coffee markets. If the Supreme Court rules against the use of IEEPA, all tariffs would be eliminated immediately, with the possibility that collected tariffs would need to be refunded. However, this potential outcome also reduces the likelihood of the administration negotiating specific country exemptions, such as for Brazil, given the risk that any negotiated deals could be overturned by the court.
The market now enters a waiting period until the Supreme Court issues its decision, which is expected sometime this year given the case’s prioritized status.
For the coming week, coffee futures are projected to trade in a range of 390 to 400 cents as the market continues to be influenced by tightness in the December/March spread. Options expiry on Wednesday represents a key event to monitor.
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