The global grain market has shifted in favor of buyers as record harvests across multiple origins force sellers into competition for market share.

French wheat flour prices increased by EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt over the past two weeks, driven by higher milling wheat prices on Euronext. The milling wheat benchmark rose by the same amount to EUR 190/mt, likely supported by production cuts for French wheat and potential cuts for Australian wheat. However, a bearish mood dominates and prices stay at multi-year lows.

France’s farm ministry cut its estimate for 2025 soft wheat production to 33.2 MMT from 33.3 MMT last month, still 30% above last year’s level. Production forecasts continue to climb across other origins. Expana increased its EU soft wheat forecast by 0.3 MMT to 136.4 MMT (+22.8 MMT y-o-y), while SovEcon raised its Russian crop forecast by 0.6 MMT to 87.8 MMT (+5.2 MMT y-o-y).

Large supply concerns are forcing wheat sellers to compete fiercely and giving buyers the upper hand in negotiations. CBOT Soft Red Winter wheat declined to USD 498.75 cents/bushel from USD 514 cents/bushel two weeks ago.

Corn and barley markets follow similar pattern

CFR Rotterdam corn starch price declined to EUR 540/mt from EUR 550/mt, driven down by record-low corn prices. Euronext corn climbed by EUR 2/mt to EUR 184/mt compared to two weeks ago. However, prices remain at their lowest level since February last year.

The IGC projects record global corn production at 1,297.3 MMT (+5% y-o-y), driven by record U.S. output and a stronger Argentinian harvest. CBOT corn prices declined to USD 416.75 cents/bushel from USD 421.75 cents/bushel as harvest pressure remains strong.

French feed barley prices increased by USD 2/mt to USD 221/mt compared to two weeks ago. However, global supply looks stronger this year, which is capping prices. The IGC projects global barley supply at 148.5 MMT, up from 146.9 MMT previously and 143.6 MMT last year. The 2025/26 barley crop is expected to be the largest since 2022/23.

Trade tensions add complexity to soybean market

CBOT soybean prices dropped to USD 1,006 cents/bushel from USD 1,023 cents/bushel two weeks ago. The market remains under pressure due to uncertainty over the US–China trade relationship during the key US soybean marketing window.

China continues buying LATAM beans, keeping Brazilian and Argentinian prices at a premium to US prices, while the US has little choice but to sell beans more cheaply to all buyers except China. US soybean sales are down 51% year-over-year, according to CoBank.

This situation creates opportunities for countries other than China to purchase discounted US beans.

What this means for procurement

Record global production across wheat, corn, and barley is forcing sellers into competition for market share. Wheat prices remain at multi-year lows despite modest increases, while corn prices sit at their lowest level since February last year.

For soybeans, US-China trade tensions create opportunities for non-Chinese buyers to purchase discounted US beans.



This article is part of a full grains market analysis. Read the full analysis at: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2362