European markets defy summer decline expectations while US processing activity reaches 2025 highs amid stable avian flu conditions

June 26, 2025 – Global egg markets are displaying unexpected resilience as summer approaches, with European shell egg prices holding firm against seasonal decline expectations and US processing activity surging to its highest levels this year, creating mounting pressure on powder producers worldwide.

European markets resist summer price drops

European egg markets have surprised industry observers by maintaining price stability throughout June, with shell egg availability remaining strong despite widespread expectations of typical summer price corrections. The absence of major avian flu outbreaks in commercial flocks has provided crucial market confidence, even as wild bird infections persist in Northwest Europe.

Market dynamics reveal a cautious approach from industry players, with the anticipated sharp summer price decline materializing as only gradual adjustments. This resilience comes as organic and free-range segments continue experiencing significant shortages, further complicated by the delayed cage-free mandate now pushed to 2026.

Powder processors face critical decision point

A key development reshaping market dynamics centers on egg powder production delays as processors have been holding off purchases in anticipation of lower shell egg prices. However, with prices maintaining firmness throughout June, industry sources suggest many processors will soon need to accept current market levels and resume production activity.

This shift could trigger upward pressure on powder prices as manufacturers rush to rebuild inventories, particularly if shell egg prices approach expected summer lows by July’s end.

US markets show strong processing momentum

American egg markets present encouraging signs of recovery, with processing volume reaching its highest level since early 2025 and shell egg demand improving among both retailers and processors. The market has benefited from minimal HPAI disruptions, with only limited outbreaks affecting replacement pullets rather than laying flocks.

Shell egg inventories are declining for the first time in months, indicating improved market off-take and reduced surplus conditions that have characterized much of 2025.

Key factors driving market stability

Several critical elements are supporting current market dynamics:

  • Disease Pressure Relief: The completion of spring migration and absence of major commercial flock outbreaks have provided crucial stability after months of HPAI concerns.
  • Processing Activity Surge: Both European and US markets are experiencing increased processing engagement, drawing down inventories and signaling stronger industry confidence.
  • Seasonal Demand Patterns: While summer heat traditionally dampens consumption, current demand levels are proving more resilient than historical patterns suggest.
  • Supply Chain Adjustments: Structural constraints in premium segments continue influencing overall market balance, particularly in organic and free-range categories.

Market outlook: stability with strategic opportunities

Industry analysts anticipate continued stability through early July, with potential for strategic opportunities as heatwave conditions intensify. The convergence of stable disease conditions, improving processing activity, and delayed powder production decisions creates a unique market environment.

Critical timing decisions around inventory rebuilding and production scheduling are expected to shape price trajectories as markets transition into Q3, with particular focus on how quickly processors respond to current price levels.

Read the full week 26 Egg market analysis on the Vesper platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2044