The global sugar market faced renewed pressure this week as prices dropped to near 16 US cents per pound, driven by stronger-than-expected production figures from Brazil’s key Center-South region.

According to the latest data from industry body Unica, sugar production in Brazil’s Center-South increased 15% year-on-year during the first half of July, reaching 3.4 million tons. The region’s sugar mix also increased to 54%, up from 50% during the same period last year.

This production boost comes at a time when the broader commodity complex is experiencing weakness, particularly in energy markets, adding additional downward pressure on sugar sentiment.

India signals potential export expansion

Further pressure on global sugar prices emerged from India, where industry groups are preparing to seek government approval for exporting up to 2 million tons of sugar in the upcoming 2025/26 season starting in October.

This potential export increase follows reports of favorable crop conditions in India, supported by above-average monsoon rainfall. As of August 4, rainfall measured 500.8 mm, which is 4% above the seasonal average.

If approved, larger Indian export flows would increase global sugar availability at a time when Brazil is already accelerating its shipments to international markets.

European market dynamics remain stable

In Europe, sugar prices have maintained relative stability despite global pressures. The Vesper Price Index shows varying regional prices across the continent:

  • West-EU: €600/mt DAP
  • South-EU: €618/mt DAP
  • East-EU: €555/mt DAP

European sugar beet development has benefited from July rainfall that exceeded average levels across key growing countries including Germany, France, Poland, the Netherlands, the UK, and Belgium.

Import activity in the EU has decreased significantly, with October-May imports in the 24/25 season reaching 1.07 million metric tons, down 44% compared to 1.9 million metric tons in the same period last season. Meanwhile, exports for the same period rose to 1.3 million metric tons, up 30% year-on-year.

Brazil maintains export momentum despite production adjustments

While Brazil’s Center-South region showed strong production in early July, cumulative harvest data through July 16 reveals a more nuanced picture. Mills crushed 256.1 million metric tons of cane, marking a 9.6% decline year-on-year, with sugar output reaching 15.5 million metric tons, down 9.2%.

However, the sugar mix increased to 51.6%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a strategic shift in production allocation between sugar and ethanol.

Brazilian sugar exports remained robust, with the first 19 working days of July totaling 3.17 million metric tons, slightly up from 3.12 million metric tons during the same period last year.

Trade policy developments impact market dynamics

Recent trade policy changes have introduced new variables to the market. The United States has enacted a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, including sugar, though products imported under the existing U.S. Tariff-Rate Quota system remain exempt and can enter duty-free.

Meanwhile, in Europe, industry bodies continue to oppose the EU’s proposed 100,000-tonne duty-free sugar quota for Ukraine, arguing it could distort market conditions and harm European producers.

Market outlook points to continued pressure

The near-term outlook for sugar prices suggests continued pressure from multiple supply-side factors. Brazil’s recovering production momentum, combined with potential increased exports from India, is likely to maintain downward pressure on global prices.

In Europe, recent rainfall improvements and stable production expectations support current price levels, though buyers appear to be positioning for potential further price declines based on reduced contracting activity and delayed deliveries from late 2025.

The combination of improving supply conditions in major producing regions and steady demand suggests the market may continue to favor buyers in the coming months.


This analysis provides key highlights from Vesper’s comprehensive sugar market analysis . For detailed price benchmarks, AI-powered forecasts, and in-depth market analysis, access the full report here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2164