Historical Meat Data

Meat consumption and production have been central to global agricultural industries for centuries, providing a critical source of protein for billions of people worldwide. Understanding the historical data surrounding meat—whether beef, pork, poultry, or other varieties—is essential for grasping the dynamics of the meat industry, including trends in production volumes, price fluctuations, and the impacts of supply chain disruptions.

In this blog, we will explore the historical trends in meat consumption and production volumes, examine how meat prices have fluctuated over time, and discuss the various factors that have influenced these trends.

Historical Trends in Meat Consumption and Production Volumes Globally

Global meat consumption and production have seen considerable growth over the past few decades, driven by rising incomes, population growth, and changing dietary preferences. Here are some key statistics and trends on global meat production and consumption:

1. Global Meat Production Growth

Over the past 20 years, global meat production has increased substantially. In 2000, global meat production was around 233 million tons, and by 2020, it had grown to 337 million tons, a rise of approximately 44.6%. This growth is largely due to the expansion of industrial-scale livestock farming and the growing demand for animal protein, particularly in developing countries.

• Pork: Pork is the most consumed meat globally, with China accounting for nearly 50% of global pork consumption. Pork production globally increased by 25% from 2000 to 2020, though there were declines in some regions due to diseases like African swine fever.
• Beef: Beef production grew at a slower rate, increasing by 16% between 2000 and 2020. Beef’s slower growth is partly due to concerns over environmental sustainability and health, which have led to some shifts in consumer preferences.

2. Per Capita Meat Consumption

Global per capita meat consumption has increased over the years, although growth varies by region:

• In Asia, per capita meat consumption more than doubled between 1980 and 2020, particularly in China. Chinese meat consumption rose from 14 kg per person in 1980 to around 63 kg per person by 2020, largely driven by pork and poultry.
• In Latin America, per capita meat consumption increased by 40% from 2000 to 2020, driven by rising incomes and the growing popularity of beef and poultry.
• In contrast, Europe and North America have seen more stable or slightly declining per capita consumption in recent years due to concerns about health and environmental sustainability.

3. Shifts in Consumption Patterns

In many developed countries, meat consumption is beginning to plateau or decline slightly as plant-based alternatives gain popularity. For instance, meat consumption in the European Union decreased by about 2.5% between 2010 and 2020, while consumption in the U.S. has remained relatively stable, with a slight shift toward poultry over beef and pork.

4. Technological Advancements in Meat Production

Technological advancements in livestock farming have played a crucial role in boosting production volumes. The adoption of precision farming techniques, improved feed efficiency, and better disease control methods have allowed meat producers to scale up operations. For example, in poultry farming, better breeding practices and feed have increased production efficiency, allowing farmers to produce more meat with fewer resources.

• Impact on Poultry: The efficiency of feed conversion for poultry is a key reason for the surge in its production. Poultry farming requires fewer inputs compared to beef or pork, making it more affordable to produce on a large scale. This has been especially evident in countries like Brazil and China, which have rapidly expanded their poultry sectors.

5. Environmental and Health Concerns

In more recent years, the environmental impact of meat production has become a growing concern. Livestock farming accounts for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, and this has led to greater public scrutiny of beef production in particular, which has the highest carbon footprint among meats. Consumers in higher-income countries are increasingly shifting toward plant-based diets or reducing their red meat consumption due to environmental and health reasons.

Key Events Driving Historical Meat Price Fluctuations

Meat prices have been influenced by a combination of supply-demand dynamics, feed costs, disease outbreaks, weather disruptions, and trade policies. Let’s explore some of the major events that have driven meat price fluctuations globally, and examine their reflection in the attached price comparison chart of beef (blue) and pork (green):

1. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021)

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on global meat prices. Lockdowns and social distancing measures disrupted meat production and processing, causing bottlenecks in supply chains. Labor shortages in slaughterhouses, transportation delays, and reduced production capacity led to increased beef prices in particular. As seen in Vesper’s price comparison chart below, beef prices surged sharply in 2021, peaking at nearly 7,000 units per kilogram, reflecting the heightened disruptions during this time.

Pork prices show less volatility compared to beef, reflecting steadier supply and demand conditions. While there was a slight upward trend in pork prices from 2020 to 2022, the changes were not as dramatic as those seen in beef. This suggests that while pork faced challenges, such as ASF and trade disruptions, these factors were mitigated by a more resilient global supply chain for pork.

2. Rising Feed Costs (2020-2022)

Another key driver of meat prices in recent years has been the increase in feed costs, which make up a large portion of the cost of raising livestock. Droughts in major grain-producing regions, like the U.S. and Brazil, reduced corn and soybean yields, driving up feed prices globally. Since beef production requires more feed compared to pork, the rise in feed prices significantly impacted beef production costs, leading to higher prices for beef during 2021, as seen in the chart.

• Impact on Prices: The global rise in corn and soy prices, which are key feed ingredients, drove up meat production costs. This is reflected in the surge in beef prices between 2020 and 2022.

3. African Swine Fever (ASF) Outbreak (2018-2021)

The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak, which started in China in 2018, wiped out a significant portion of the global pork supply. China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer, saw its pork production drop by almost 40% as a result of ASF, leading to skyrocketing pork prices. Although pork prices in the chart (green line) remained relatively moderate globally, the ASF crisis caused increased pork prices in Asia, which had ripple effects on global pork trade. Many countries ramped up exports to China to fill the gap in supply, stabilizing prices in the long term.

• Impact on Prices: While pork prices in certain regions, such as Europe and the U.S., remained more stable, the global pork market experienced fluctuations due to disruptions in supply chains as major exporters increased shipments to Asia.

4. U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2019)

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China also played a significant role in global meat price fluctuations. In 2018, China imposed tariffs on U.S. pork and beef in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese goods. These tariffs reduced the flow of U.S. meat exports to China, causing a temporary oversupply in the U.S. and putting downward pressure on domestic pork prices. On the other hand, Chinese buyers sought alternative suppliers, which increased demand for beef and pork from other regions like Brazil and the European Union.

• Impact on Prices: The trade war disrupted global meat trade flows, with pork prices in the U.S. temporarily decreasing due to reduced exports, while beef prices remained relatively stable due to continued strong demand from alternative buyers.

5. Extreme Weather Events (2012 Drought in the U.S.)

Weather-related disruptions have historically affected livestock production. For example, the 2012 drought in the U.S. impacted feed production, resulting in reduced beef and pork output. The drought affected corn and soybean crops, driving up feed costs and leading to a rise in meat prices. While this event predates the attached chart, it is a relevant example of how environmental conditions can significantly affect production costs and, subsequently, meat prices.

• Impact on Prices: The 2012 U.S. drought led to a substantial increase in feed costs, which subsequently pushed up meat prices globally.

Shifts in Meat Production Between Different Regions or Countries

Over time, meat production has shifted between different regions, driven by factors like changes in consumer demand, cost advantages, and government policies. Historically, the United States and Brazil have been dominant players in beef and pork production, while China has emerged as a key producer and consumer of pork. Poultry production, meanwhile, has seen rapid expansion in countries like Thailand and Brazil, which have capitalized on export markets for chicken.

Global trade in meat has also seen significant shifts, as new trade agreements have opened up export opportunities for meat-producing countries. For example, countries like Australia and New Zealand have expanded their beef exports to Asia, particularly China, in recent years. At the same time, pork exports from the U.S. to countries like Japan and Mexico have remained strong, reflecting long-standing trade relationships.

The Importance of Understanding Historical Meat Data

For anyone involved in the meat industry—whether producers, traders, or retailers—understanding historical meat data is critical for navigating the complexities of the global market. By analyzing historical trends in consumption, production, prices, and supply chain disruptions, stakeholders can make informed decisions and anticipate future market movements.