Record global grain production is putting pressure on European wheat and corn markets, with abundant supplies from Russia, Argentina, and Australia creating intensified competition for traditional EU exporters.
Vesper’s index for French wheat flour declined to EUR 283/mt, down from EUR 285/mt two weeks ago, driven by lower milling wheat prices on Euronext. The nearby milling wheat price fell by EUR 1/mt to EUR 189/mt since the previous report.
The euro has appreciated 11% against the U.S. dollar since January, making Europe less competitive in global markets. Market sources report that Europe currently faces stiff competition from Russia and Argentina as exporters.
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 3 MMT to 830 MMT. SovEcon increased its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 0.8 MMT to 88.6 MMT, while also raising Russian wheat export estimates for November to 4.7 MMT.
Australian wheat production is expected to reach 36 MMT compared with around 34 MMT in the previous season, adding further supply pressure.
For corn, CFR Rotterdam starch prices rebounded to EUR 510/mt from EUR 490/mt two weeks ago, while Euronext corn prices returned to EUR 189/mt. Ukrainian logistics disruptions from Russian attacks have sharply reduced Ukraine’s corn exports in November, with only 1.3 MMT shipped so far versus 2.5 MMT a year ago, which could provide temporary support for European corn demand.
The IGC raised its 2025/26 world corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 1.298 billion MT, an absolute record.
Analysts broadly align with machine-learning forecasts, noting that wheat prices typically rise after the post-harvest recovery period from September/October until February/March. However, this year, record global output is expected to give buyers the upper hand, keeping overall price levels below last season.
This grains news is part of a more comprehensive grains market analysis, for the full analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2482