Global grain markets faced downward pressure in late September as record production forecasts overwhelmed seasonal recovery patterns, with wheat, corn and barley prices declining despite typical post-harvest rebounds.

Wheat and flour markets weaken on production increases

Vesper’s Index for French wheat flour (11.5%) decreased by €4/mt to €280/mt, driven by lower milling wheat prices on Euronext, which declined by €3/mt to €186/mt. CBOT Soft Red Wheat weakened by 12.5 cents/bushel to 508 cents/bushel as bearish supply news kept prices near the bottom.

USDA increased the global 2025/26 wheat production forecast by 9.3 mmt to 816.2 mmt, driven by a higher Australian crop, and raised ending stocks by nearly 4 mmt. The agency’s quarterly grain stocks report for the US showed August wheat ending stocks at 57.7 mmt versus 54.2 mmt in the same period last year.

The European Commission raised its soft-wheat forecast to 132.6 mmt from 128.1 mmt previously. IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest this year to 87.5 mmt, up from 87 mmt, and slightly increased its wheat-export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 0.1 mmt to 44.1 mmt.

A Reuters poll of eight analysts pegged Australia’s 2025 wheat crop at 35.3 mmt, up from 34.1 mmt last year and above the five-year average of 33.8 mmt, which would mark the country’s third-largest harvest on record.

Machine learning forecasts indicate flat prices for Euronext milling wheat, overall below last year’s volumes. Analysts note that wheat prices typically rise after the post-harvest recovery from September/October until February/March. However, record global output will give buyers the upper hand, and overall price levels may remain below the previous season. The World Bank projects average global wheat prices at $265/mt in 2025 and $268/mt in 2026, both below the 2024 average of $270/mt.

Corn markets struggle despite some supporting factors

CFR Rotterdam corn starch price declined by €10/mt to €550/mt, driven by bearish trends in global corn prices. Euronext corn declined by €5/mt to €181/mt, while CBOT corn weakened by 10.75 cents/bushel to 415.5 cents/bushel.

Bearish wheat trends and active US corn harvesting (11% harvested) pressured corn markets. USDA slightly lowered the global corn production forecast by 2 mmt in its most recent WASDE update, but almost the same increase was recorded for US production, which still hasn’t concluded any trade agreement with China.

The quarterly grain stocks report for the US showed August corn ending stocks at 38.9 mmt versus 44.8 mmt in the same period last year. The European Commission cut its 2025/26 corn production forecast by 0.8 mmt to 56.8 mmt, down from 59.6 mmt in 2024, citing prolonged drought across several regions.

Ukraine’s corn harvest remains sluggish, with only 5% completed as of 25 September—well behind last year’s pace—though early yields are now exceeding 2024 levels. September corn shipments from Ukraine totaled just 34,000 mt, a record low for this period.

Record global production of 1,297.3 mmt (+5% year-over-year), according to IGC, will continue weighing on prices in the longer term. Machine learning forecasts indicate flat prices for Euronext corn, overall below last year’s volumes. Analysts highlight seasonal recovery from September/October until June, but record global production and uncertainty over US-China trade relations are likely to keep prices close to or below last year’s levels.

Barley supply situation becomes more comfortable

EXW Canada malt barley price decreased to CAD 233/mt from CAD 244/mt in the same period last week. A further increase in the barley crop forecast is stretching an already comfortable supply situation.

The European Commission increased its barley production outlook to 55.7 mmt from 53.7 mmt. A Reuters poll of eight analysts pegged Australia’s 2025 barley crop at 14.7 mmt, above last year’s 13.3 mmt and the five-year average of 13.4 mmt.

IKAR raised its barley output estimate for Russia to 19 mmt, while Russia’s barley export forecast was raised to 3.4 mmt from 3.2 mmt. Canada’s barley crop forecast remains at 8.2 mmt.

Machine learning outlook indicates price growth for EXW Canada malt barley toward December, though overall 2025/26 season prices are expected to remain below 2024/25. Seasonal upside could emerge toward December, but strong global wheat and corn production, combined with better barley harvests this year, may limit price gains compared to last season.

Soybean markets pressured by Argentina’s export tax moves

CBOT soybean price decreased to 1,002 cents/bushel from 1,012 cents/bushel last week. FOB Up River Argentina price declined to $400/mt from $404/mt in the same period last week.

Between September 22 and 24, Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and their by-products, including biodiesel, aiming to accelerate sales abroad and secure much-needed dollars to stabilize the peso. On September 24, the sales cap established under Decree 682/2025 was reached, triggering the automatic reinstatement of export levies.

Argentina’s FOB price for crude soy oil dropped by $30/mt during the tax break, leading to 300,000 mt of soy oil sales to India. Soy FOB price declined by $15/mt during the tax break, with almost 2.6 mmt sold to China. The buying spree undercut US farmers during their peak marketing season, fueling concerns that Chinese demand for US beans will be limited.

US harvesting is progressing at a strong pace, and USDA revised the US crop 0.23 mmt higher to 117.05 mmt. Prices found a floor as USDA cut global 2025/26 soy production by 0.5 mmt to 425.9 mmt and reduced global ending stocks by 0.9 mmt to 124 mmt.

Analysts note that ongoing US harvesting, strong global production forecasts, and a potential US surplus—driven by weak Chinese buying—are significantly limiting upside potential. If China resumes US soybean purchases, CBOT prices are likely to rise, while Brazilian prices could decline.

Procurement implications

The combination of record global production across wheat, corn and barley creates a buyer-favorable market through early 2026. Food manufacturers and procurement managers should consider locking in prices during this period of supply abundance, particularly for wheat and corn derivatives. However, the soybean market presents more uncertainty depending on US-China trade developments, suggesting a more cautious approach to longer-term commitments.

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