Trump’s tariff deadline has passed: How it’s affecting agricultural commodity trade, country by country

Updated: 10.30 CET, August 4, 2025

The August 1 tariff deadline has passed, and agricultural exporters around the world are now confronting the fallout. Under President Trump’s latest trade offensive, the United States has finalized 10 trade deals affecting both agricultural and industrial products with the European Union, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Pakistan, Thailand, and the UK.

While agriculture is not the central target of this tariff wave, which primarily affects sectors like pharmaceuticals, computer chips, and lumber, several agricultural commodities are still caught in the crossfire. Countries such as South Africa, China, and Mexico remain in active negotiations, while others including Bangladesh, Serbia, Algeria, Iraq, Taiwan, Switzerland, Kenya, Nigeria, Tunisia, Colombia, Argentina, and Morocco, have received formal letters outlining new tariffs but there has been no public news coverage of any negotiations or trade discussions.

Most of these tariff rates were revealed in a July 31 executive order, just before the deadline. Except for tariffs on Canada, which began August 1, most new tariffs won’t take effect until August 7.

At the center of this legal and political firestorm is the Trump administration’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose these tariffs. Last week, the Court of Appeals heard arguments from a Trump administration lawyer defending the move.

A central issue is that the IEEPA statute does not explicitly mention “tariffs.” Congress has historically interpreted the law as allowing presidents to “regulate importation” and “impose import restrictions,” not tariffs per se.

The plaintiff in the case, V.O.S. Selections, a small NYC-based wine importer, argues that Trump’s use of IEEPA is unlawful. If the Appeals Court rules in their favor, importers could pursue refunds of tariffs already paid, potentially draining billions from the US Treasury. Tariffs are projected to generate $300 billion in revenue this year, or $3 trillion over a decade. A legal reversal could force the administration to recalculate its tax policies and federal budget assumptions.

According to Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, the July 31 calculations were based on “unusual calculations” and lacked consistent logic. “The original formula was nonsense, but at least it had a logic. These rates do not appear to fit known facts,” she told Al Jazeera. Meanwhile, Inu Manak of the Council on Foreign Relations noted that several countries may still try to renegotiate terms before the August 7 deadline.

In this article, we track the agricultural impact of these developments, including country-by-country negotiations, key agri-commodity categories, and what exporters and importers should expect next.

EU

Status: Trade deal reached, with further clarity required
Key commodities: Wine, spirits, essential oils, specialty cheeses, olive oil, butter, dairy fat

After negotiations in Scotland on July 27, 2025, the US and EU struck a landmark trade deal. While the agreement remains unwritten, EU imports to the US are now subject to a 15% tariff, significantly lower than the initially proposed 50%.

However, agricultural exports, such as Spanish olive oil, Irish dairy, and French wines, could face economic strain unless zero-for-zero exemptions are finalized. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that zero tariffs would apply to select categories, including agriculture, though specific product-level details are pending.

Indonesia

Status: Deal agreed
Key commodities: Palm oil (crude & refined)

Indonesia agreed to eliminate 99% of tariff barriers for US industrial and agricultural goods. In return, the US will maintain a reduced 19% reciprocal tariff on Indonesian exports, down from the original 32%. The US may offer further reductions for non-domestically produced items.

China

Status: Truce extension agreed, tariffs to rise August 12
Key commodities: Processed fruits and vegetables, garlic, mushrooms, apple juice concentrate

Negotiators agreed to extend the 90-day tariff truce, which currently holds U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 30%, including key agricultural imports such as garlic, mushrooms, and apple juice concentrate, and China’s on U.S. goods at 10% until August 12, 2025.

However, unless a new deal is finalized and approved, U.S. tariffs are expected to revert sharply, potentially rising all the way back to the triple-digit range, as high as 145% on some product categories. In recent public briefings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer emphasized that nothing is agreed until President Trump signs off on any extension or alternative path forward.

While these increases are expected to target primarily manufactured and industrial goods, there is concern about spillover effects on agriculture. Direct triple-digit tariffs on key agricultural imports like garlic, mushrooms, and juice concentrates are not confirmed, but processed or value-added food products may still face higher rates if categorized under broader industrial classifications. Additionally, any U.S. escalation may prompt Chinese retaliation, potentially targeting U.S. agricultural exports in return, a move that could further disrupt agri-trade flows and global commodity prices.

Canada

Status: Negotiations ongoing
Key commodities: Meat (beef, pork), grains, processed foods, baked goods, animal feed

Canada faced immediate tariffs starting August 1, despite last-minute talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s statement recognizing Palestine complicated negotiations. The US currently applies 25% tariffs, but many agricultural goods remain exempt under the USMCA. Talks are still considered to be at an “intense phase.”

Mexico

Status: Temporary extension granted
Key commodities: Avocados, berries, beer, tequila, processed vegetables, beef, pork

Mexico was granted a 90-day extension on a 30% tariff that was originally scheduled to take effect August 1. Trump stated that the 25% tariff currently applied to Mexican goods would remain, although many agri-products are excluded due to coverage under the USMCA. The extension gives both nations time to renegotiate outstanding issues.

New Zealand

Status: Negotiations ongoing
Key commodities: Meat, dairy, beverages, spirits, vinegar

New Zealand exported approximately US$4.4 billion in goods to the US in 2024, with agri-products accounting for more than half. The government is awaiting clarity but believes a weaker NZ dollar may help exporters cope if tariffs are imposed.

India

Status: Negotiations ongoing – 25% reciprocal tariff in effect as of August 1
Key commodities: Basmati rice, spices, tea, guar gum

President Trump announced on Truth Social on July 30, 2025, that India would be subject to a 25% reciprocal tariff, along with an unspecified penalty for its purchases of Russian oil and weapons. He described India as a “friend” but stated its tariffs remain “far too high.”

The 25% tariff applies broadly, including to agricultural and dairy exports. In its ongoing trade negotiations with the US, India has refused to provide exemptions or market access for these sectors. Despite five rounds of talks, New Delhi has held firm on excluding dairy, genetically modified foods, and other sensitive agricultural products, citing domestic farming protections and cultural concerns.

Earlier reports mentioned a 26% tariff figure, but the finalized rate was confirmed in the July 31 executive order as 25%, effective August 1.

According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India’s agricultural exports to the US in 2024 totaled US$5.7 billion, roughly 11% of the country’s total agricultural exports.

While other countries have until August 7 to renegotiate tariff terms, India’s tariff is already in force, and there is no indication that exemptions for agriculture or dairy are being considered.

Malaysia

Status: Negotiations ongoing
Key commodities: Palm oil, palm kernel oil

A 25% tariff on Malaysian goods was scheduled to start August 1, but talks are still underway. No exemption for palm oil has yet been confirmed, and Malaysian officials are seeking clarification from Washington.

Brazil

Status: No information on deal
Key commodities: Sugar, coffee, orange juice, beef, tobacco

Brazil faces a potential 50% tariff, but high-level talks have stalled. As of now, no public deal or negotiations have been disclosed, and Brazilian exporters remain in limbo.

Unconfirmed Countries

Status: Letters sent, no active negotiations
Key commodities: Vary by country (not detailed by US administration)

The countries Bangladesh, Serbia, Algeria, Iraq, Taiwan, Switzerland, Kenya, Nigeria, Tunisia, Colombia, Argentina, and Morocco have received formal notices from the US outlining upcoming tariffs. These notices apply to a broad range of imports, likely including agricultural products, although no detailed breakdown has been released.

As of now, no public negotiations or trade proposals have been reported between the US and these countries. Unless talks are initiated, they are expected to face reciprocal tariffs ranging from approximately 20% to 45% starting August 7. While the US has not published specific product lists, the broad scope of these tariffs strongly suggests that agricultural commodities are included alongside industrial goods.

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