The global sugar market continues to demonstrate significant price volatility, with recent developments creating a complex landscape for industry stakeholders. Our latest comprehensive market analysis examines the critical factors driving these fluctuations and what they mean for producers, traders, and consumers worldwide.

Recent market movements

Sugar markets experienced heightened volatility over the past week, with a notable price rebound following reports that Center-South Brazil’s sugar production dropped 53% in the second half of April compared to last year. Excessive rainfall has disrupted harvesting operations, temporarily tightening supply and supporting prices despite the market’s generally bearish outlook.

The Sugar No. 11 (Raw) price increased to $18.2/lb as of May 13, 2025, while the Sugar No. 5 (White) price rose to $510/mt, reflecting these short-term supply constraints.

Regional focus: Europe

Across Europe, our Vesper Price Index (VPI) reveals varying market conditions, with the West-EU VPI currently at €600/mt DAP. Persistent dry conditions across the UK and Eastern Europe are impacting crop development, with some regions receiving only a third of normal rainfall over the past ten weeks.

European beet acreage for the 2025 campaign is projected to decline significantly, with reductions of 5% in France, 5% in Germany, and 7% in Poland compared to 2024. For Europe 27 as a whole, the expected year-on-year decrease stands at 7%.

Brazilian production outlook

Brazil’s sugar sector is experiencing temporary disruptions, with cane crush falling nearly 50% year-on-year in the second half of April. This slowdown was primarily driven by frequent rains in western São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná, hindering harvesting operations and reducing processing pace.

Global supply projections

Despite these short-term disruptions, global supply prospects remain substantial. The USDA projects a 26% increase in India’s 2025/26 sugar production to 35 MMT, supported by above-normal monsoon forecasts and expanded cane acreage. Brazil is also expected to produce 2.3% more sugar next season, reaching 44.7 MMT, once weather conditions normalize.

What’s in our full analysis?

Vesper’s complete sugar market analysis provides:

  • Detailed price forecasts and trend analysis
  • Country-by-country production projections
  • Comprehensive supply and demand balance sheets
  • Import/export analytics and trade flow mapping
  • Weather impact assessments across growing regions
  • Policy developments affecting market dynamics

Access our full week 20 sugar market analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1934