President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are creating significant ripples across global vegetable oil markets, with palm, soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower oil all feeling the effects. Here’s what industry professionals need to know.

The global vegetable oils market is experiencing unprecedented volatility following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of broad-ranging tariffs on imports worldwide. With rates reaching up to 50% for certain nations, these policy changes are already reshaping trade flows and pricing trends across major oil categories.

Immediate market reactions

Palm oil markets have seen BMD CPO prices drop to MYR 4,562/mt, while CBOT soy oil has decreased to $995/mt. These downward trends come alongside plummeting Brent crude oil prices, which fell to $64.21/barrel – a combination creating complex challenges for producers, traders, and buyers alike.

Major exporting countries are feeling the impact differently:

  • Malaysia faces an additional 24% tariff while Indonesia sees a steeper 32%
  • China has been hit with a total 54% tariff, prompting retaliatory measures including a 44% tariff on US soybeans
  • The EU received a 20% tariff, threatening its substantial olive oil exports to the US
  • The Philippines coconut oil sector is contending with an 18% tariff on exports

Trade flow disruptions

Perhaps most significantly, China’s retaliatory 44% tariff on US soybeans effectively “puts them outside of the Chinese market,” according to industry traders. This development has major implications, as the US exports approximately 27 MMT of soybeans—nearly 50% of its production—to China annually.

Meanwhile, Canadian canola producers received a reprieve as their products remain exempt from new tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, preventing disruption to this crucial trade relationship.

What’s next for vegetable oil markets?

Market analysts are projecting varying trajectories for different oils:

  • Palm oil faces downward pressure until September with potential recovery thereafter
  • Soybean oil shows bearish short-term indicators despite potential longer-term stability
  • Rapeseed oil may follow downward trends seen in soy and palm oil, though tight stocks could limit declines
  • Sunflower oil from the Black Sea region remains constrained by tight supply despite global market pressures

Access complete analysis

This snapshot only scratches the surface of how global tariff policies are reshaping vegetable oil markets. Vesper’s comprehensive analysis includes detailed price forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and strategic recommendations for navigating this challenging environment.

To access our full analysis, including exclusive machine learning projections and detailed market-by-market breakdowns, visit the Vesper platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1843