In a shift observed across the edible oil markets, soybean oil prices have moved above palm oil prices , reversing a trend where palm oil held a higher valuation. This change reflects recent developments in supply patterns, currency shifts, and trade signals influencing both markets.


Palm Oil Prices Adjust as Production Growth Outpaces Exports

Palm oil prices on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) declined to $926 per metric ton, down from $983/mt the previous week. The adjustment brings palm oil back to a discount relative to soybean oil, a reversal after months of price convergence, see image below.

Price Comparison graph by Vesper


Production in Malaysia and Indonesia has been growing, while export volumes have not kept pace. In Malaysia, export data from Intertek reported to Vesper shows a rise of nearly 12%, reaching 705,000 metric tons between April 1 and 20 compared to the same period in March. Meanwhile, Indonesian exports declined by 33.5% in the first half of April, totaling 451,442 mt, relative to the same timeframe last month.

The Malaysian Ringgit strengthened during the same period, with the USD/MYR exchange rate moving from 4.429 to 4.381, influenced by broader USD weakness amid trade policy uncertainty. Currency movements like this can affect the global competitiveness of palm oil exports.

According to Vesper estimates, Indonesia’s palm oil production reached 4.570 million metric tons in March, up from 4.425 mmt in February, while ending stocks declined from 2.526 mmt to 2.336 mmt over the same period.

Energy markets also saw modest changes, with Brent crude oil prices rising to $66.26 per barrel, from $64.88 the week before. While not a direct driver, energy prices can indirectly influence sentiment in biofuel-linked vegetable oil markets.

Soybean Oil Prices Strengthen on Trade Developments and Tighter Stocks

At the same time, soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased to $1,054/mt, up from $1,021/mt the prior week. This rise was supported by tightening supply indicators and renewed focus on international trade relations.

The FOB Up River crude soybean oil price also climbed, reaching $1,033/mt from $1,012/mt. Signals from China suggesting openness to trade negotiations with the US, alongside stable trade relations with the EU, have drawn attention from global oilseed markets.

Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a March crush of 194.551 million bushels, slightly below expectations and down 0.9% from February. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks among NOPA members declined to 1.498 billion pounds, down from 1.503 billion pounds in February and 19.1% lower year-over-year, highlighting tighter supply.

Despite this, CBOT soybean prices eased slightly to $378/mt, compared to $383/mt the previous week. The decline was attributed to profit-taking ahead of the holiday period and strong crop progress in Latin America, although potential for US-China trade developments helped limit the downward move.

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