After trending upward since mid-2024, the global coconut oil market extended its rally into 2025, with prices climbing another 25% between January and the end of July. Crude coconut oil in Europe started the year at around €1,919/MT and reached approximately €2,552/MT by late July. This continued rise was driven by a complex mix of ongoing supply disruptions, regional crop failures, firm global demand, and limited substitution options.

The timeline below offers a clear month-by-month breakdown of average price trends, key market events, major price drivers, and analyst forecasts, including how those predictions played out. This comprehensive review helps traders, buyers, and industry stakeholders understand not just what happened, but why coconut oil surged this year.

To wrap up, we’ll also provide a concise outlook on what could be ahead for the coconut oil market.

January 2025: Rally extended

  • Price level:
    • ~$1,889–$1,965/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€1,900/MT (CIF Rotterdam crude CNO)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Tight copra supply continued from late 2024 due to weather and virus pressure in the Philippines.
    • Strong global demand, especially from food and oleochemical sectors, carried over from Q4 2024.
    • Export data showed the Philippines moving strong volumes, keeping global inventories tight.
    • Lauric oils in general were firm, but coconut oil outperformed palm kernel oil, widening the spread.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Vesper analysts remained bullish, noting that no near-term supply relief was in sight.
    • Strong end-user demand was expected to persist into Q2, with possible price acceleration in late Q1.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices continued rising into February and March, validating the early-year outlook.

February 2025: Momentum maintains at high levels

  • Price level:
    • ~$1,950–$2,020/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€1,975–€2,050/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Ongoing tightness in copra supply in Southeast Asia.
    • Exporters prioritized higher-margin destinations, leading to thinner European arrivals.
    • Buyers remained active despite elevated prices, indicating inelastic demand.
    • Substitution remained limited, particularly in food and cosmetics sectors.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Vesper analysts continued their bullish stance, forecasting further price increases or a steady high plateau.
    • No near-term supply relief expected; copra supply issues remained unresolved.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices held firm and crept higher into early March.

March 2025: Holding high ground

  • Price level:
    • ~$2,000–$2,100/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€2,050–€2,150/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Coconut oil maintained its strength while other oils (e.g., palm kernel oil) fluctuated.
    • Philippines supply remained constrained, and new copra was slow to materialize.
    • Buyers cautiously assessed demand but refrained from switching to alternatives.
    • Some signs of market fatigue appeared, but forward sentiment remained firm.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Analysts expected either a plateau or a modest pullback in April due to demand rationing.
    • Vesper noted the risk of correction, but flagged Q2 supply risks if Sri Lankan or Indian output faltered.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices mostly plateaued in April, with mild softening due to demand cooling.


April 2025: Signs of softening appear

  • Price level:
    • ~$1,980–$2,030/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€2,000–€2,100/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Buyers resisted high prices, leading to some demand rationing.
    • Some minor recovery in copra supply in the Philippines helped stabilize availability.
    • Competitor oils (PKO, sunflower) became more attractive on a relative basis.
    • Market paused to reassess — momentum cooled.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Vesper anticipated a short-term consolidation or mild correction.
    • Analysts emphasized watching demand response closely before calling the end of the rally.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices softened slightly, but the dip was limited and did not break the long-term trend.


May 2025: Temporary correction sets in

  • Price level:
    • ~$1,950–$1,980/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€1,950–€2,000/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Some buyers stepped back as prices held near multi-year highs.
    • Market saw substitution into PKO where functionally possible.
    • Copra arrivals improved slightly, adding short-term supply.
    • Coconut oil followed the general soft oils market downward briefly.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Forecast shifted to neutral, with a note that the market could find a floor soon.
    • Analysts highlighted upcoming Q3 risks if India and Sri Lanka failed to deliver normal volumes.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: June marked the beginning of a renewed rally, just as Vesper anticipated bottoming behavior.


June 2025: Rally reignites on emerging supply concerns

  • Price level:
    • ~$2,050–$2,120/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€2,150–€2,250/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Crop issues emerged in India and Sri Lanka, nut production and harvesting fell below expectations.
    • Freight and port congestion remained stable, but forward shipments slowed.
    • Soybean oil and crude oil markets rallied, lifting sentiment across soft oils.
    • Traders positioned early for Q3 shortages, fueling a surge in buying.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Analysts turned bullish again, highlighting tightening lauric oil fundamentals.
    • Projected further price strength unless a demand shock occurred.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices climbed sharply through July as fears over Q3 availability were validated.


July 2025: Supply tightness confirmed

  • Price level:
    • ~$2,180–$2,250/MT (EXW Manila)
    • ~€2,450–€2,552/MT (CIF Rotterdam)
  • Main Drivers:
    • Export volumes declined sharply, especially from Sri Lanka and India.
    • Confirmed lower yields in top producing regions led to global tightening.
    • Buyers in Europe and Asia engaged in aggressive restocking ahead of festivals and Q4 demand.
    • Despite high prices, limited functional substitutes kept demand firm.
  • Outlook (Vesper forecast):
    • Analysts remained firmly bullish, citing broad agreement that supply shortages would carry through Q3.
    • Expected prices to stay elevated unless a major macro or demand shock emerged.
  • Was it accurate? ✅
    Yes: prices peaked at the highest level of the year by end of July.


Looking Ahead

Coconut oil prices have shown how quickly the market can shift under the pressure of supply disruptions, weather events, and global demand swings. As we move into the second half of the year, uncertainty remains, and staying ahead requires both timely data and expert interpretation.

To explore what’s next, visit our AI-driven coconut oil price projections, or dive into our latest market analyses, where Market Research Analyst Gehrman breaks down the key factors shaping short- and long-term price movements.