The Sunflower Oil market is experiencing notable fluctuations as we approach December. The price for Crude Sunflower Oil (SFO) at six ports has decreased slightly to EUR 1135/mt from EUR 1146/mt over the past week. This dip contrasts with rising origin prices, indicating ongoing market volatility.
In Ukraine, offers for Crude SFO FOB have surged by $30/mt, reaching $1090/mt, while bids have risen by $20/mt to $1070/mt. Similarly, Russian offers have also seen an increase of $30/mt, now at $1075/mt, with bids climbing by $35/mt to $1050/mt. These rising prices reflect heightened demand amidst supply constraints.
The EXW price for sunflower seeds in Ukraine continues to rise, reaching UAH 24,500/mt (approximately $592/mt). This trend creates persistent challenges in the market, including limited crusher coverage, and slim to non-existent crushing margins at the source.
Recent data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has further exacerbated concerns. Of the 4.63 million hectares or 94% of the designated area, only 9.54 million metric tons (mmt) of sunflower have been harvested, yielding an average of 2.06 t/ha. Projections now indicate a total harvest of approximately 10.15 mmt, falling short of the anticipated 12-13 mmt and significantly down from last year’s total of 14.2 mmt.
Strategie Grains has revised its estimate for the EU sunflower crop downward to 8.8 mmt, a slight decline from the previous forecast of 8.9 mmt and marking an 11% decrease compared to last year’s production.
Meanwhile, vessel line-up data highlights strong demand for SFO from various origins.
Ukraine’s exports from October 1-22 reached 341,000 mt, a significant increase compared to 185,000 mt during the same period last year. Meanwhile, Russian exports have also shown a marked increase, with 228,000 mt exported in the same timeframe, up from 107,000 mt last year.
Access the full Oils & Fats market analysis by starting your free trial here.
