The global cocoa market has entered a period of unprecedented volatility as two powerful forces collide: a worsening supply shortage from West Africa and newly implemented US tariffs on cocoa imports. This perfect storm has sent futures prices on a rollercoaster ride, with significant implications for chocolate manufacturers, traders, and consumers worldwide.

Supply concerns meet policy disruption

After cocoa futures hit historic highs in early April—with New York peaking at $9,492 and London reaching £6,770—prices have dramatically reversed course following the US administration’s April 3rd announcement of sweeping tariffs on cocoa products. By April 9th, New York futures had retreated below $7,800 while London fell under £5,750, erasing much of March’s gains.

“What started as a clear supply story has become much more complicated, shaped by changing global politics, nervous buyers, and wider economic worries,” notes Vesper’s latest analysis. “Price swings are now part of the daily rhythm, and news headlines—not just weather updates—are steering the market.”

West African production challenges persist

The market’s supply fundamentals remain concerning. Ivory Coast exporters now warn of up to a 40% drop in mid-crop yields due to prolonged drought conditions, with rainfall measuring just 77mm across monitored stations—well below the 30-year norm of 90mm. Analysts have revised mid-crop estimates down to 280,000–300,000 metric tons, compared to last season’s 500,000.

Meanwhile, Ghana’s production has shown stronger performance, with port arrivals up 60% year-on-year, positioning the country to potentially exceed its 650,000-metric-ton target for the 2024/25 season.

US tariffs reshape trade flows

The newly implemented US tariffs—ranging from 10% to 21% on raw beans and up to 32% on processed products—are already reshaping global cocoa trade patterns. Key producing nations face varying impacts:

  • Ivory Coast (21% tariff): As the world’s largest producer with 40% of global output
  • Ghana (10% tariff): Second-largest global producer
  • Nigeria (14% tariff): Significant regional supplier
  • Ecuador and Dominican Republic (10% each): Important alternative sources

For US chocolate manufacturers, who depend almost entirely on imports, these tariffs present immediate challenges to cost structures and competitive positioning against European counterparts who face no similar duties.

What happens next?

Industry experts predict continued market volatility through late April as traders adjust to these new realities. US manufacturers may face difficult choices, potentially including retail price increases of 10% or more in the latter half of 2025.

“This is the new normal,” concludes Vesper’s analysis. “Short term, we’re stuck with volatility—supply constraints clashing with trade policy noise, keeping manufacturers on their toes. Long term, higher costs could settle into a steadier, upward trend.”

For comprehensive insights, including detailed price trends, origin differentials, and long-term market projections, read our complete April 2025 cocoa market analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1847