Trade tensions force new procurement strategies in global whey markets

The global dairy industry is experiencing a significant reshuffling of trade patterns following China’s implementation of 104% import tariffs on US whey products. This seismic shift is creating both challenges and opportunities across European and American dairy supply chains, according to Vesper’s latest market analysis.

“Where one door closes, another opens,” notes Vesper’s latest market intelligence report. As Chinese buyers abandon US sources for whey powders, lactose, WPC, and WPI, European suppliers are seeing increased interest from Asian markets. Simultaneously, European markets may soon benefit from an influx of more affordable US dairy products, as the European Commission has excluded dairy from its own retaliatory tariff list.

Key market developments

The tariff situation has created a complex new dynamic:

  • Chinese buyers are proactively shifting procurement from US to European whey sources
  • European whey products are gaining price support from increased Asian demand
  • US manufacturers are exploring new European distribution channels for their products
  • Price differentials between US and EU markets are widening across multiple product categories

Vesper’s Price Index (April 9, 2025) highlights these changing market conditions with SWP (Food) now at €1080 ($1189/mt) in Europe while US prices have decreased to €960 ($1058/mt), creating regional arbitrage opportunities for savvy traders.

Market outlook remains uncertain

“The global market for whey powders has become incredibly uncertain since the announcement of the import tariffs, triggering an immense amount of financial and political unrest,” states the Vesper analysis.

Industry experts anticipate the formation of two distinct trade flows within Europe itself – premium-priced whey destined for Asian markets and lower-priced product remaining within European borders. Meanwhile, US producers face the challenge of finding new export destinations to replace lost Chinese volume.

What this means for buyers

For procurement teams navigating this volatile environment, timing is everything. The analysis suggests a “hand-to-mouth purchasing” strategy while prices have potential to move downward, but recommends securing larger volumes quickly once prices begin to rise.

For the complete market analysis covering SWP, WPC80, WPI, Whey Permeate, and Lactose markets, including detailed price indices and regional outlooks, visit the Vesper platform here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1848