The European cheese market is experiencing notable price increases as demand outpaces supply amid various market pressures. Recent data from Vesper highlights the current challenges faced by the industry, particularly as we approach the final quarter of 2024.

Current Cheese Price Trends in Europe

The latest Vesper Price Index (VPI) for key cheese varieties reveals a general upward trend in prices, driven by a combination of lower milk production and heightened demand as buyers return from summer holidays.

  • Gouda: Gouda prices have risen, currently standing at €4,000 EUR/mt. The sentiment around the Gouda market has turned bullish, with concerns about tight supply in Q4 leading producers to sell cautiously. Futures for Q4 are already trading at around €4,350 EUR/mt, reflecting the expected increase in milk prices.
  • Emmental: Emmental has seen its price increase to €4,600 EUR/mt. The market for Emmental is tight, with expectations of higher prices in Q4 due to lower availability and rising milk costs. This trend is likely to continue as buyers try to secure their needs ahead of the anticipated shortages.
  • Mozzarella: The price for Mozzarella has reached €4,080 EUR/mt in Europe. Demand remains strong, particularly for Q4, where concerns about availability have already started to push prices higher. The preference for Mozzarella, driven by its high cream yield, also plays a role in maintaining its premium pricing.
  • Cheddar Curd: Cheddar Curd is currently priced at €4,350 EUR/mt. While stocks are still available, the market outlook for Q4 is more restricted, with limited availability expected to keep prices elevated.

Cheese Market Dynamics and Supply Chain Concerns

The European cheese market is navigating through a period of reduced milk production, particularly in the second half of the year, which is traditionally lower than the first half. This reduction, coupled with lower-than-anticipated stock levels, is driving up prices across the board.

Producers are facing higher milk prices, which are expected to continue rising as supply remains tight. This has made forward selling more complex, with producers demanding premiums to offset the risks of future cost increases.

Vesper’s Price Forecasts and Market Outlook for Cheeses

Looking ahead, Vesper’s price forecasts suggest that cheese prices will remain high through the remainder of 2024 and into early 2025. The forecasted price bands indicate continued pressure on the market, with only slight moderation expected in the first quarter of 2025, see Figure 1.

Figure 1: Price Forecast for EU cheese prices: Gouda, Emmental, Mozzarella, and Cheddar Curd in EUR/mt

  • Gouda is expected to experience significant price increases, potentially surpassing the €4,250 EUR/mt mark as we approach Q4 2024. The market dynamics suggest that Gouda prices could continue to rise sharply, driven by escalating milk prices and tightening supply conditions.
  • Emmental is predicted to stay around €4,500 EUR/mt, reflecting the tight market conditions and ongoing supply constraints.
  • Mozzarella prices are also projected to stay elevated, with little relief expected until after Q4.
  • Cheddar Curd may see further price stability or slight increases, depending on how the market evolves in response to ongoing milk production challenges.

The combination of rising prices and tightening supply suggests that retailers and foodservice providers may face difficulties securing sufficient supplies, particularly for Emmental and Mozzarella, as we approach the end of the year.

Tip: If you’re interested in learning more about how these forecasts are created, feel free to schedule a short call with one of our commodity experts.