Cheese prices in Europe and North America, which surged throughout August and September, have started to decline as milk supply concerns ease. Recent data from the Vesper Price Index (16/10/2024) shows significant decreases in the prices of various cheeses:

  • Cheddar Curd: Dropped to €5,080 | $5,533/mt ($2.51/lb) EXW.
  • Gouda: Decreased to €4,600 | $5,010/mt ($2.27/lb) EXW.
  • Mozzarella: Fell to €4,380 | $4,771/mt ($2.16/lb) EXW in Europe, and €4,209 | $4,585/mt ($2.08/lb) EXW in the US.

Interestingly, Emmental was the only cheese that saw an increase, rising to €5,300 | $5,773/mt ($2.62/lb) EXW.

These price drops are not only impacting current spot prices but have also extended to forward contracts for 2025, signaling a market-wide adjustment.

As cheese prices fall, market participants are cautious, hesitant to commit to purchases due to the uncertainty of how much further prices might decline. This caution has led to low trading volumes, with buyers primarily making small purchases to cover immediate needs rather than stocking up.

Despite the current downward trend, the overall cheese market remains tight. Milk prices are still high, and cheese availability is limited, with low stock levels across regions. This indicates that there may be a “floor” price that cheese prices could stabilize at, but it’s uncertain where that level might be.

Currently, buyers hold the upper hand in the market. They are deliberately delaying purchases, betting on further price declines. Many report having sufficient stock for the time being, which allows them to postpone major buying decisions. Additionally, they are not yet committing to cheese purchases for Q1 2025, signaling that they feel no urgency and are confident that there is still time to make decisions before the end of this year.

According to Vesper AI-driven price forecasts, cheese prices are likely to decline over the next few months and they reach a floor around early 2025, see Figure below.

Figure 1: AI-driven price forecasts for Gouda, Emmental, Mozzarella, and Cheddar Curd in EUR/mt



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