Rapeseed oil prices remained elevated this week, with December crude rapeseed oil (FOB Dutch Mill) reaching EUR 1,085/mt, up from EUR 1,075/mt the previous week. The market continues trading in backwardation, reflecting tight supply conditions across the European Union.
Forward prices positions for rapeseed oil West-EU in Eur/mt
EU rapeseed stocks for October are estimated at approximately 12.28-12.3 mmt, above last year’s 11.6 mmt but below the five-year October average of 13.285 mmt. Higher crush rates, slower arrivals from Ukraine, and lower beginning stocks are offsetting increased EU production.
Import flows decline sharply
Between July and October, the EU imported around 1.182 mmt of rapeseed, compared to 2.185 mmt during the same period last year. Ukraine exported only 175,000 mt of rapeseed in October, down from 475,000 mt last year due to export procedure issues. This season, Ukrainian exports total 1.0 mmt, compared to 2.386 mmt last year.
Canadian canola exports also declined, with October shipments reaching just 626,000 mt—below the 900,000+ mt levels seen in previous years, as the Chinese market remains closed.
German biodiesel vote could support demand
The market is awaiting Germany’s vote on biodiesel double counting and the “chain of trust” system, expected this week. Market participants suggest that if double counting for biodiesels such as UCOME is removed from the GHG quota and the chain of trust is cancelled, demand for HVO, which has no blend wall, would likely increase, consequently boosting rapeseed oil demand.
Rapeseed oil prices are being supported by firm sunflower oil prices and tight sunflower supply, with the vegetable oil trading at a premium to rapeseed oil. MATIF rapeseed prices held steady at EUR 480/mt, marking the highest level since August.
This article is part of a more comprehensive market analysis on the global rapeseed oil market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2434
